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What do people reckon for next winterOn the bright side it cannot be any worse than last winterI think it will be a much better winter than last year with frequent cold and snow - just a hunchAny thoughts - scientific or gut feeling welcome
The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).
Current SSTs
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gif
This time last year
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif
What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.
No one knows. There's no remotely proven method for forecasting two seasons away and I find speculation absolutely pointless. It's like giving an opinion on what you think will happen in July 2080. Utterly pointless, but still carry on. Are we not having an autumn this year?
Have to agree with the City fan, there is no reliable way to do this kind of forecast - you may as well get the seaweed out and hang it on the wall. On the otherhand if we want to talk about what we hope might happen, then that's a different story. On that basis I'd like some good cold spells to try to limit the garden pests for next summer!
Cold .. Frost and fog,, Cold coming off the Atlantic will make it snow more than the past 4 years. May have more Siberian winds from the east to contend with..
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless.
Like wise WI , was indeed woeful
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless. Like wise WI , was indeed woeful
Woeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-2982.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-3132.png?12
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-2-4134.png?12
JFF
Better than 2013-14 as we had not a single snowflake and almost frostless. Like wise WI , was indeed woefulWoeful perhaps, but just look at how my energy bills compared to the previous winter (in white)!
Irrelevant for me as my two log burners do the job for pence .
But understand what you are saying
If Dec 14 is snowier than Dec 10, then it'd be amazing!!!
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-2982.png?12http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-0-3132.png?12http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014081112/run3/cfsnh-2-4134.png?12 JFF
Did you put the colours in with Photoshop, just to cheer yourself up?
long as winter was better than last year, I.E colder, ice some snow, and NE, E, winds then HAPPY DAYS,
The metoffice base their forecast among other things on the atlantic SSTs, it gives an idea of what the NAO is likely to be come the winter. Ofc if the NAO is negative then cold and snow is almost axiomatic (if the AO follows suit).Current SSTshttp://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.8.11.2014.gifThis time last yearhttp://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2013/anomnight.9.12.2013.gif What we are looking for is a tripole pattern, i.e Warm in the south, Cold in the mids, Warm in the north. Last year there was no real sign of this pattern at all. This year there is a tiny patch of cold in the mids, and there is warmth in the north. But no warmth in the south. From this alone, an average or mild winter is implied.
I recorded colder temps last Autumn than the following Winter - that just shows how rubbish Winter was! hopefully this Winter will be better but we have no control over it so just a case of waiting and hoping. Still a long while off meteorologically.
Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?
:
You'll find out at the end of November.
According to the non-solar SLATless antipodean forecasting system:-
Very mild start. December may well be snow and frost free in most parts. Ski resorts worried. Year ends warmest on record.However a spell of quite cold and snowy weather setting in around end of Jan or first half of Feb 2015 - which could even produce some record lows in one of two spots and/or significant snow falls in places that rarely see much snow.Overall though, a milder than average winter - despite the late cold snap.
Are we not having an autumn this year?
Do you want an early sneak peek at my Winter 14/15 forecast:?::::::::::::::::You'll find out at the end of November.