With certain newspapers predicting a hot summer I was wondering what the cognoscenti's thoughts on this forum are as to how summer 2014 may turn out ? I opened a discussion this time last year and it attracted a lot of response much of which proved to be most interesting . Over to you all!

Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer.

What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

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Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer.

What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

^
What he said. 😁

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A thundery one please.

Good Spanish plumes and night time thunderstorms. Not had a decent one for years.

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My early suspicion is that you might be in luck this year Kev; there is a very persistent pattern these days of blocking turning up to our NE a few times each month, and troughs tending to develop in the mid-Atlantic and either head N then NE over the block or stall out to our W/SW.

Such a setup in summer would likely allow the trough to invade at times, bringing supressed daytime maxima and rather a lot of rain, but on the other hand, troughs could quite often become stalled or slow moving somewhere west of Portugal, pulling up a decent plume for the UK to experience.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2014 was overall notably warmer than average but also wetter than average, perhaps by some margin.

 

While I don't hold much stock in analogues, 1993/1994 is an uncannily close match in terms of the Nov-Dec/Jan-Feb/Mar pattern sequence, and summer 1994 featured conditions similar to what I'm thinking of for this year.

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A decent summer with long heatwaves.

A thundery one please. Good Spanish plumes and night time thunderstorms. Not had a decent one for years.

Thundery would be good.

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I'll go for cool and unsettled

2 reasons for this...

1. We are in a long spell of above average temperatures. That will end sooner or later. This time last year we had a similar run of colder than average temperatures...that changed into summer.

2. The Great British weather normally lets us down, just when it's starting to get exciting. Remember all those charts from summer onwards predicting a severe winter

 

 

 

a sunny warm one would be great with the continued opportunity hopefully to break the CET record for the year.....

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June wet but warm... July dry ... August  sticky.

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Cold and dry is a combination we've not had in summer for a very, very long time (1993 I think?)

This is NOT a forecast, BTW. Just an observation.

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Just a hunch I predict an average British Summer, warmest of the weather towards the SE, coolest/wettest towards the North and West.

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Like everyone else I haven't got a clue what will happen this summer. What I'm hoping for is a dry one with the majority of any rain falling at night when I don't have to experience it. I would love it to be sickeningly hot and humid as well, but would settle for dry, warm and plenty of sunshine. Whether that's what will happen I have no idea.

 

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My early suspicion is that you might be in luck this year Kev; there is a very persistent pattern these days of blocking turning up to our NE a few times each month, and troughs tending to develop in the mid-Atlantic and either head N then NE over the block or stall out to our W/SW.

Such a setup in summer would likely allow the trough to invade at times, bringing supressed daytime maxima and rather a lot of rain, but on the other hand, troughs could quite often become stalled or slow moving somewhere west of Portugal, pulling up a decent plume for the UK to experience.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2014 was overall notably warmer than average but also wetter than average, perhaps by some margin.

 

While I don't hold much stock in analogues, 1993/1994 is an uncannily close match in terms of the Nov-Dec/Jan-Feb/Mar pattern sequence, and summer 1994 featured conditions similar to what I'm thinking of for this year.

This is my gut instinct also. 

Cold and dry is a combination we've not had in summer for a very, very long time (1993 I think?)

This is NOT a forecast, BTW. Just an observation.

True that, with 2011 the only one coming anywhere near that... and it wasn't hugely below average overall IIRC.

Still, the year after the one you speak of remains a rough guide to how my 'suspicions' are looking for now. I don't feel I will have enough spare time to produce a more technical, scientific forecast, unfortunately.

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1981 was the last cool dry summer.

1993 wasn't that dry.

1972 was another cool dry summer.

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Cheers Kev 

I'm fairly sure I've heard cool, dry summers (or at least dry) linked with a negative AMO, which is something we haven't had for some time, so perhaps that goes at least part of the way to explaining how we have managed go get through more than 3 decades without one...?

I forget when the AMO is expected to turn negative... used to have a link somewhere but it's gone AWOL 

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AMO will go into it's neagtive phase sometime in the early to mid 2020's, but as we move towards that phase we can expect to get some years that are cold in terms of the AMO.

 

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August to September to be the hottest sunniest months, June and July mixed but no washouts.

That is my thinking anyway.

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Best in western Scotland for May spring weather...June rather mixed. July hot and continuing into August.... September a shock to the system with temps struggling by mid month to low Dble digits.