http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run2/cfsnh-0-3102.png?06

JFF JFF JFF JFF JFF

January ends on a bit of a cold note

Sir Michael's northerly!

I think that might please him  lol

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JMA and BCC are covered nicely by Simon Keeling in the vid. linked by Four (thanks for that). The latter has changed it's tune completely from the previous update IIRC.

Have you seen the September update from the BCC SC? I've been waiting for it, but from what I can see BCC haven't updated their charts from August yet? (seems to be a problem on the BCC website I think?)

I thought the one in SK's vid was the September update, as I remember seeing very different charts not long ago. Whether it is or not, I've not been able to locate them on the official site yet

The BCC charts in SK's video were from August. Still waiting for September update.

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The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

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The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

😂 Spin reaches forecast modelling 😝 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

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The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

 Spin reaches forecast modelling 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

😂 Spin reaches forecast modelling 😝 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

Possibly Matty, but it wasn't supposed to be a googly....

---

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

 Spin reaches forecast modelling 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

 

Its a bit like Matty then

😂

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The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

 Spin reaches forecast modelling 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

 

Its a bit like Matty then

The problem seems to be that Glosea 4 pressure anomalies show for DJF HP anomlay to the north.This would be expected to deliver below avearge temerature anomalies across NW Europe.However the September 2m temperature anomalies from mETO contradict this with above average temeratures favoured (see the above average /below average plot rather than the terciles)

The most important model outlook for me is the Glosea4 - the most up to date advanced model from the Met office-

 

THe picture its painting is below normal- quite considerably...............

 

S

 

Steve, you'll have to provide a link. The one I was looking at, which i thought was the Glosea4, suggested a more average to milder scenario for Dec-Feb!?  

Probability of ABOVE normal 2m temp in 40-60% tercile!???  Maybe I'm reading it wrong! 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20130901/3up_20130901_temp2m_months46_europe_prob_public.png

Joe

No, that's what it says.  To be complete it says, in effect:

Above average 40-60%

Below average: 20-40%

Average: 0-20%

That could mean a 60/40 chance of an average to cold winter, which most people would take as a decent outlook.

 Spin reaches forecast modelling 60% chance of a mild winter sounds good to me.

It's the MetO model so it's inbuilt with a warming bias.

 

Its a bit like Matty then

The problem seems to be that Glosea 4 pressure anomalies show for DJF HP anomlay to the north.This would be expected to deliver below avearge temerature anomalies across NW Europe.However the September 2m temperature anomalies from mETO contradict this with above average temeratures favoured (see the above average /below average plot rather than the terciles)

I think there's some confusion about the interpretation of SLP anomaly charts. A positive anomaly to the north only means a higher likelihood of low pressure not being there. Even a modest high pressure north of the British Ises doesn't guarantee a cold air mass. As we all know you can have high pressure over Greenland and still have us sitting under a mild flow.

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This is interesting - https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/381488730592141312/photo/1

You know, it's a big shame that so many long range models only have three-month intervals available to the public. 1-month intervals are far more useful, allowing interpreters to gauge how a season is likely to evolve i.e. front-heavy on cold or a slow burner... but, presuming such output exists, I'm guessing it's all behind paywalls.

CFS is a much appreciated exception - thank you America, land of free data access

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Hi all,

Here's the first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Haven't got all that many this month, but what we have got seem's to be pointing to a cold winter - Though the CFS may be backing off at the moment to be honest.

 

 

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Hi all,

Here's the first Winter 13-14 seasonal model round-up video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

Haven't got all that many this month, but what we have got seem's to be pointing to a cold winter - Though the CFS may be backing off at the moment to be honest.

 

 

Cheers Gav

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run4/cfsnh-0-2934.png?18

JFF JFF JFF

CFS still keen on a v cold period in January.

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The link may not be a direct one but the early snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere is currently very impressive

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif 

http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png 

Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

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http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF:
E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

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http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF:
E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

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http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF: E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Well the wolves won't be a problem with Retron the Wolf-Whisperer acting as a shield.
The polar bears also not an issue. They prey on individuals with impaired cognitive responses so they'll have plenty to keep them occupied in Newcastle.

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http://128.6.226.99/~njwxnet/png/daily_dn/2013265.png  Even though the very cold start to winter 2010-11 had positive anomalies the snow cover was still less than it is at this stage this year. So, what will it mean (if anything) for our winter?

At a guess, predicted 2mT anomolies for DJF: E coast of Scotland +1.8C; SE England -3.4C

Hah, you won't be laughing when the North Sea freezes over and the wolves and polar bears sweep down from Aberdeen to Denmead and eat you. 😝 [sn_bsmil]

Well the wolves won't be a problem with Retron the Wolf-Whisperer acting as a shield.
The polar bears also not an issue. They prey onindividualswith impaired cognitive responses so they'll have plenty to keep them occupied in Newcastle.

😂

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