OK 2nd review!
"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.
2014
January
Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.
CET above normal
February
Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.
CET below normal
March
Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent
CET below normal
April
Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells
CET slightly below average
May
Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.
CET around average
June
Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.
CET slightly below average
July
Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible
CET above average
August
The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.
CET slightly above average
September
Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.
CET much above average
October
Probably a little drier than average
CET around average
November
Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.
CET slightly below average
December
Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.
CET around average.
I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "
While I think I did well for January, February has been a bit of a failure (though I would note that it was substantially better than some long range forecasts!*) It was not the coldest month of the winter (not the warmest either but hardly a consolation), there were some snow showers in the S and E; at least more than January (80% of the snow I have seen since November fell in february but again really not saying much). And given that I predicted a below average CET the only part that was right was the admission that any cold spell would be unlikely to be severe or long lasting! So a complete failure of a month, but then you can't get them all. I hope to do better for march.
*To be clear I am not talking about the metoffice (or TWO) . I think their LRF were actually pretty good especially the one issued end of December.
Edited by user
05 March 2014 23:45:12
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Reason: Not specified
Twitter: @QuantumOverlord (general), @MedicaneWatch (medicane/TC stuff)
2023/2024 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
29/11 (-6), 30/11 (-6), 02/12 (-5), 03/12 (-5), 04/12 (-3), 16/01 (-3), 18/01 (-8), 08/02 (-5)
Total: 8 days with snow/sleet falling.
2022/2023 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
18/12 (-1), 06/03 (-6), 08/03 (-8), 09/03 (-6), 10/03 (-8), 11/03 (-5), 14/03 (-6)
Total: 7 days with snow/sleet falling.
2021/2022 Snow days (approx 850hpa temp):
26/11 (-5), 27/11 (-7), 28/11 (-6), 02/12 (-6), 06/01 (-5), 07/01 (-6), 06/02 (-5), 19/02 (-5), 24/02 (-7), 30/03 (-7), 31/03 (-8), 01/04 (-8)
Total: 12 days with snow/sleet falling.