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vince  
#961 Posted : 08 February 2014 08:48:27(UTC)
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Yea right CFS about as useful as a chocolate teapot , this said model was havin a bubble when suggesting this winter was going to very cold some months ago now.  

Offline roger63  
#962 Posted : 08 February 2014 09:40:44(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

 

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

 

 

Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

 

This was originally posted on the model output thread.However I've copied it here because Stormchaser has I think ,come up with the key atmospheric circulation anomaly that  has driven this remarkable but unwelcome winter.

Offline nouska  
#963 Posted : 08 February 2014 10:31:28(UTC)
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Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

 

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

 

 

Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

 

This was originally posted on the model output thread.However I've copied it here because Stormchaser has I think ,come up with the key atmospheric circulation anomaly that  has driven this remarkable but unwelcome winter.

The persistence of the west coast ridge and the draw down of polar airmass on the eastern flank is the cause of the cold conditions over the central and eastern parts of the US. What is the cause of ridging and the anomalous (to -PDO cycle) warmth in the NE Pacific?

Reanalysis shows a very unusual and extreme 500mb anomaly for this winter.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Offline Charmhills  
#964 Posted : 08 February 2014 11:04:43(UTC)
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It would be typical if winter shows up back end of Feb and into March.

Duane.

Offline roger63  
#965 Posted : 08 February 2014 14:12:03(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

 

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

 

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

 

 

Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

 

This was originally posted on the model output thread.However I've copied it here because Stormchaser has I think ,come up with the key atmospheric circulation anomaly that  has driven this remarkable but unwelcome winter.

The persistence of the west coast ridge and the draw down of polar airmass on the eastern flank is the cause of the cold conditions over the central and eastern parts of the US. What is the cause of ridging and the anomalous (to -PDO cycle) warmth in the NE Pacific?

Reanalysis shows a very unusual and extreme 500mb anomaly for this winter.

Thanks Nouska as you say the next question is what led to the persistence of the ridge!

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 08 February 2014 14:22:37(UTC)  | Reason: spelling

Offline moomin75  
#966 Posted : 08 February 2014 15:17:33(UTC)
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Speak for yourself Marcus. After this horrific winter, I'm sure the majority would prefer an early spring warmth.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Gooner  
#967 Posted : 08 February 2014 15:26:56(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Speak for yourself Marcus. After this horrific winter, I'm sure the majority would prefer an early spring warmth.

I bet there are a few on here hoping for a late wintry spell

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Deep Powder  
#968 Posted : 08 February 2014 22:07:43(UTC)
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Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post
<p>
Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
</p>

<p>

Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post
</p>

<p><a href="http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18</a></p>

<p>Again CFS hints at a chilly March</p>

<p><a href="http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18">http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18</a></p>

<p><strong>Most welcome</strong></p>

<p>

Speak for yourself Marcus. After this horrific winter, I'm sure the majority would prefer an early spring warmth.</p>

<p>

</p>

<p>I bet there are a few on here hoping for a late wintry spell</p>

I wouldn't say no to a late spell of Snow , would always welcome Snow with open arms Smile

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline Gooner  
#969 Posted : 09 February 2014 17:48:57(UTC)
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Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline roger63  
#970 Posted : 13 February 2014 08:04:05(UTC)
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Going back to the cause of the winter storminessthe persistence of the NW Pacific ridge seems likely casue.The factor driving this was mentiined on last nights ONE show last night as strong positive SST anomalies in the  NW Pacific off Japan.

Any thoughts?

Offline roger63  
#971 Posted : 13 February 2014 08:11:17(UTC)
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Offline KevBrads1  
#972 Posted : 13 February 2014 08:22:26(UTC)
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I went for a drier than average winter..........

Pure guesswork it was.

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline nsrobins  
#973 Posted : 13 February 2014 23:30:28(UTC)
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Location: South Hampshire

And whilst we wait for this pitiful cesspit of a winter to finally crawl it's way into oblivion, I recommend a read of the first 10 pages or so of this thread.

It is proof if ever it was needed that despite the analysis and theories and detail and debate, Mother Nature will without fail fart in our faces and mug the best of us.

Neil

Portsmouth, Hampshire 1m ASL (coast)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline Gooner  
#974 Posted : 13 February 2014 23:34:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gusty Go to Quoted Post

Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country. 

We are due one. 

LOL

That was wishful thinking

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Gooner  
#975 Posted : 13 February 2014 23:36:02(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: nickl Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Justin W Go to Quoted Post

The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK.

if only twas that easy justin. part of the jigsaw but not an overriding factor (neutral ENSO may give it a bigger piece though). i can confidently state that the upcoming winter will be colder than the summer just ended .

 

And it seemed it was that easy, westerlies all the way

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline Gooner  
#976 Posted : 13 February 2014 23:49:14(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.  Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

Hopefully we wont make the same mistake in 7 months time .......me included

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun

Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L

Offline roger63  
#977 Posted : 14 February 2014 09:07:26(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Gooner Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.  Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

Hopefully we wont make the same mistake in 7 months time .......me included

Gooner remember even the mighty METO got the winter wrong.In late October they went for above average temps and on the dry side.In late November they switched to slightly below average temperatures.

Dont think any of models got the very wet bit right.

It wa s adifficult winter to cal with few clear indciators and the couple of indicators SST's/ QBO contradictory.

 

Offline nouska  
#978 Posted : 14 February 2014 09:28:08(UTC)
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Long range forecasts will continue to fall at the first hurdle while ENSO signatures between the ocean and the atmosphere are conflicting. It is mentioned in the PDF from the Met Office and has been cited on many occasions, in recent years, as the stumbling block when forecasts are appraised. I'm not sure why this should be - perhaps the recent switch to cold PDO or maybe not sufficient time between the frequent Nina periods for the atmosphere to respond as expected.
Offline roger63  
#979 Posted : 16 February 2014 08:26:06(UTC)
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Just seen an item re pattern persistence.American scinetist saying that  the jet is  meandering more and the increasing amplitude of the meanadering jet is contributing to the persistence of weather patterns sucha sthe one we are.in at present 

Expectation is that the frequency of such events will increase.Possible cause warming in the arctic shifting jet pattern.

Its certainly true that most of our very mild winters rae charcterised by a very straight jet which is not the case this winter

The good news for coldies is that a persistent menadering jet in the right place could give us persistent cold.

Offline nickl  
#980 Posted : 16 February 2014 08:35:29(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: roger63 Go to Quoted Post
Just seen an item re pattern persistence.American scinetist saying that the jet is meandering more and the increasing amplitude of the meanadering jet is contributing to the persistence of weather patterns sucha sthe one we are.in at present

Expectation is that the frequency of such events will increase.Possible cause warming in the arctic shifting jet pattern.

Its certainly true that most of our very mild winters rae charcterised by a very straight jet which is not the case this winter

The good news for coldies is that a persistent menadering jet in the right place could give us persistent cold.

I guess it's only a matter of time before madden is vindicated by another 'dec '10'. I assume these persistent patterns she talks about are also applicable to other times in the year? Over the past 10/15 years we have seen hot summers (w Europe and Russia come to mind, very warm and dry springs/autumns, late winters blah blah blah ........

To me, that says its just climate and we just need to be adaptable and get on with it.

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