Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

18 Pages«<89101112>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline roger63  
#181 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:18:21(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Osprey Go to Quoted Post

Does this look like dry weather to you?

From say the 15th - 23rd GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfs-0-264.png?12

Long way off but I'm confident

First sign of relief  for the south if GFS op verifies(and GEM trending in a similar direction)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

However need to see if ENS support?

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#182 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:18:33(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,933
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

GFS 12z still looks Wet and Windy Tuesday to Friday next Week, based on viewing the Wetterzentralised charts at 500hPa MSLP and Temps and 850hpa MSLP with SFC pressure, Several low pressure areas affect the UK, with normal to below normal temps in NW and North, but less cold in the South and SE in particular.

So often dominated by active frontal rain spells with windy spells, plus some drier and sunny spells as well for many.

Some hills of Wales Northern England and especially Scotland could see sleet and snow as well.

We are aware of this weekends windy and showery spell, some heavy showers, and rain tonight.

The hiccup viewing wetterzentrale GFS I have adapted my methods to get them, the urls are helpful,.

Colder with a few showers during to Sunday after next week, and and it appears quite wet and windy on Tuesday- Wednesday- Thursday and Friday next week noticeable strong low pressure systems affecting the UK.

Oh by the way, the WAA over Newfoundland Friday to Sunday day 7-9 from GFS 12z run and Mid W N Atlantic High P. ridge with cold and Frosty weather along with an unstable showery WNW flow in weekend after next week signals a pattern change is in the offing for the UK.

Whole of N Europe particularly France Denmark, holland and Germany and more so Norway looks like getting cold Low Pressure with scattered sleet or snow showers.

A large Arctic High to our NE by then day 7-9, and with WAA going up West and SW Greenland and CAA cold High Pressure in ESE Canada pushing that Newfoundland PV Low track NE looks like the Polar Jet stream is to track away from the UK, but on the other hand that Surge of mild SW flow and WAA could push across N Atlantic and bring a Westerly NW flow to bring that W NW Atlantic mild surge across us later in February could be nice hey!, but if we get a few days of wintry showers and cold Northwest flow, and maybe Mid W N Atlantic High ridge to UK that could be my preferred outcome for mid February to third week Feb. 2014!.

Edited by user 07 February 2014 17:30:10(UTC)  | Reason: Unspecified

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Stormchaser  
#183 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:21:10(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,753
Man
Location: West Hants

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.

...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.

 

After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Whether Idle  
#184 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:23:05(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,194
Man
Location: Dover

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm

Another run , another 2 inches plus of unwelcome rain in the south and west of the British Isles. 

Notable again are the continuing rain shadow effects of Britain's New California - The North East.

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline KevBrads1  
#185 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:29:31(UTC)
KevBrads1

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 17/03/2012(UTC)
Posts: 28,560
Location: Irlam

This is how desperate it has become

http://www.meteociel.fr/...?&ech=384&mode=0

All together now...

Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site

http://www.youtube.com/c...z2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists

Offline Polar Low  
#186 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:35:44(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

ecm is also in a struggle to solve it James at t120 so expect changes at very short notice as you say all models having a hard time with that energy.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014020700!!/

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.

...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.

 

After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#187 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:36:53(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,933
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.

...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.

After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific Low Pressure going under N Central Pacific High P block system with active wet and windy SE then NE Tracking PV low pressure to track across West NW USA and w USA for a time that could be a good set up!,.

Also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern.

The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Edited by user 07 February 2014 17:47:27(UTC)  | Reason: Unspecified

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Polar Low  
#188 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:47:29(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

But good agreement here as the very unsettled theme continues

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

and very wet for all on the cool side of average for uk

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!
Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Offline Osprey  
#189 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:48:38(UTC)
Osprey

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2010(UTC)
Posts: 2,146
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Wye Valley

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!
Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Cheers me up even if it is in FI One can but dream of dryness as opposed to hoping for it...

If it ain't broke!
Offline Stormchaser  
#190 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:53:30(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,753
Man
Location: West Hants

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

 

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline LA2B MeridFlowEuro09  
#191 Posted : 07 February 2014 17:54:37(UTC)
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,933
Man
Location: Forest Gate London

Originally Posted by: Osprey Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!
Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Cheers me up even if it is in FI

To the way the 6-10 days MSLP and 500hPa plus Pressure pattern wider picture in Pacific and USA and Upstream changes could affect our an Atlantic weather pattern it might turn more different as we pass 14th February, the changes are showing the Pacific and USA pattern is on it's way to go for a much needed improvement for those who had a very cold snowy and disruptive winter in Canada and the USA, if they see it change maybe things can change in the North Atlantic as well, but what I want the North Atlantic pattern to change to- I have good ideas for that- like you all do- so we are looking at the same maps.

I think the next 7 days of weather will just be enough of the rain and Very static temperatures we have had - to change that to what many want Mother Nature needs some work to do.

Edited by user 07 February 2014 17:59:46(UTC)  | Reason: Unspecified

We live in a very active part of the North Atlantic indeed. It reduces the size and extent and duration of low temperatures and winter snow, and it reduces the length of very warm and hot sunny weather.

Our weather breaks down often after we get some either cold and wintry weather or get dry and sunny weather. Brief and also longer lasting Unsettled and wet weather with mild winter weather or cool chilly and cloudy conditions in summer's. It used to be colder and snowier and frostier both day and night, but nowadays we often see above average temperatures both day and night as our Planet Earth is entered into a warm human induced Global Warming Phase. Long fetch of warm air SW winds over longer distances- reduce the chances for the UK to be affected by cold plunges and spells, living on the NW Europe part fully exposed to Atlantic mildness.

Laiq B.

Home: East London

Location around 61m ASL.

Offline Polar Low  
#192 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:00:06(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

you know what will happen sods law    it will not rain for weeks and weeks floods and bad things then just stop in summer we will pray for rain with dust everywhere"I hope" but the weather does seem to balance itself out but its the extremes that it seem to have go to perhaps its climate change as yd said and not global warming all world will pay the price at sometime it just seems to be ours at the moment with rain. 

 

quote=Osprey;578756]

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 Go to Quoted Post
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post
The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!
Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Cheers me up even if it is in FI One can but dream of dryness as opposed to hoping for it...

Offline Nick Gilly  
#193 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:16:00(UTC)
Nick Gilly

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 29/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 358
Location: Whitchurch, Hampshire

Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.
Offline Charmhills  
#194 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:18:19(UTC)
Charmhills

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 47,127
Man
Location: Loughborough.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

GFS 12z a warm outliter in deep fi.

Duane.

Offline Whether Idle  
#195 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:20:25(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 8,194
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: Charmhills Go to Quoted Post

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

GFS 12z a warm outliter in deep fi.

There is clearly the possibility of a drier and cooler end to the month, but who would bet against the raging Atlantic Jet dominating?

With model watching its as much about remembering to forget things as it is forgetting to remember.
Offline roger63  
#196 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:20:38(UTC)
roger63

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,281
Man
Location: Winchester,Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.

The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.

 

That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!

Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

Offline Polar Low  
#197 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:23:40(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

bit like rumble in the jungle what a fight back a few cold runs in the mix

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=3&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1

 

 

Offline Polar Low  
#198 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:39:56(UTC)
Polar Low

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/12/2012(UTC)
Posts: 3,286
Man
Location: Chelmsford Essex

Not sure Nicky but same for me but Gav wrote something earlier regarding a extension file change on wetter so cross over may be affected at the moment

Gav wrote regarding wetter:

They've changed links, so;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.png

Is no longer updating.

This;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif

not sure if that would also change your link thou Nicky

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post
Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.

Offline David M Porter  
#199 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:51:40(UTC)
David M Porter

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC)
Posts: 17,212
Man
Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow

Originally Posted by: Polar Low Go to Quoted Post

Not sure Nicky but same for me but Gav wrote something earlier regarding a extension file change on wetter so cross over may be affected at the moment

Gav wrote regarding wetter:

They've changed links, so;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.png

Is no longer updating.

This;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif

not sure if that would also change your link thou Nicky

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly Go to Quoted Post
Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.

I also noticed the same thing about the GFS and mentioned this in here this morning. The chart links now have "gif" at the end rather than "png" as was the case up until yesterday.

"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".

Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)

Offline Rob K  
#200 Posted : 07 February 2014 18:57:25(UTC)
Rob K

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 02/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 20,960
Location: Northeast Hampshire

Yes that will have messed up the JP2 link as that uses the old png files.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl.
Users browsing this topic
18 Pages«<89101112>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP