roger63
07 February 2014 17:18:21

Originally Posted by: Osprey 


Does this look like dry weather to you?


From say the 15th - 23rd GFS http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2014020712/gfs-0-264.png?12


Long way off but I'm confident



First sign of relief  for the south if GFS op verifies(and GEM trending in a similar direction)


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0


However need to see if ENS support?

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
07 February 2014 17:18:33
GFS 12z still looks Wet and Windy Tuesday to Friday next Week, based on viewing the Wetterzentralised charts at 500hPa MSLP and Temps and 850hpa MSLP with SFC pressure, Several low pressure areas affect the UK, with normal to below normal temps in NW and North, but less cold in the South and SE in particular.

So often dominated by active frontal rain spells with windy spells, plus some drier and sunny spells as well for many.

Some hills of Wales Northern England and especially Scotland could see sleet and snow as well.

We are aware of this weekends windy and showery spell, some heavy showers, and rain tonight.

The hiccup viewing wetterzentrale GFS I have adapted my methods to get them, the urls are helpful,.

Colder with a few showers during to Sunday after next week, and and it appears quite wet and windy on Tuesday- Wednesday- Thursday and Friday next week noticeable strong low pressure systems affecting the UK.

Oh by the way, the WAA over Newfoundland Friday to Sunday day 7-9 from GFS 12z run and Mid W N Atlantic High P. ridge with cold and Frosty weather along with an unstable showery WNW flow in weekend after next week signals a pattern change is in the offing for the UK.

Whole of N Europe particularly France Denmark, holland and Germany and more so Norway looks like getting cold Low Pressure with scattered sleet or snow showers.

A large Arctic High to our NE by then day 7-9, and with WAA going up West and SW Greenland and CAA cold High Pressure in ESE Canada pushing that Newfoundland PV Low track NE looks like the Polar Jet stream is to track away from the UK, but on the other hand that Surge of mild SW flow and WAA could push across N Atlantic and bring a Westerly NW flow to bring that W NW Atlantic mild surge across us later in February could be nice hey!, but if we get a few days of wintry showers and cold Northwest flow, and maybe Mid W N Atlantic High ridge to UK that could be my preferred outcome for mid February to third week Feb. 2014!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Stormchaser
07 February 2014 17:21:10

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.


...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.


 


After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!


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T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
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Whether Idle
07 February 2014 17:23:05

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/accumulation-precipitations/192h.htm


Another run , another 2 inches plus of unwelcome rain in the south and west of the British Isles. 


Notable again are the continuing rain shadow effects of Britain's New California - The North East.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
KevBrads1
07 February 2014 17:29:31
This is how desperate it has become

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=384&mode=0 

All together now...

MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
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Polar Low
07 February 2014 17:35:44

ecm is also in a struggle to solve it James at t120 so expect changes at very short notice as you say all models having a hard time with that energy.


http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2014020700!!/


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.


...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.


 


After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
07 February 2014 17:36:53
Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it.
...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic.

After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!



Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific Low Pressure going under N Central Pacific High P block system with active wet and windy SE then NE Tracking PV low pressure to track across West NW USA and w USA for a time that could be a good set up!,.

Also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern.

The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Polar Low
07 February 2014 17:47:29

But good agreement here as the very unsettled theme continues


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html


and very wet for all on the cool side of average for uk


http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.

Osprey
07 February 2014 17:48:38

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.


Cheers me up even if it is in FI One can but dream of dryness as opposed to hoping for it...


Nobody likes a smartass, especially another smartass...
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Stormchaser
07 February 2014 17:53:30

It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.


The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.


 


That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected] 🙂
https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2021's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
07 February 2014 17:54:37
Originally Posted by: Osprey 

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.


Cheers me up even if it is in FI
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To the way the 6-10 days MSLP and 500hPa plus Pressure pattern wider picture in Pacific and USA and Upstream changes could affect our an Atlantic weather pattern it might turn more different as we pass 14th February, the changes are showing the Pacific and USA pattern is on it's way to go for a much needed improvement for those who had a very cold snowy and disruptive winter in Canada and the USA, if they see it change maybe things can change in the North Atlantic as well, but what I want the North Atlantic pattern to change to- I have good ideas for that- like you all do- so we are looking at the same maps.

I think the next 7 days of weather will just be enough of the rain and Very static temperatures we have had - to change that to what many want Mother Nature needs some work to do.
Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
Polar Low
07 February 2014 18:00:06

you know what will happen sods law    it will not rain for weeks and weeks floods and bad things then just stop in summer we will pray for rain with dust everywhere"I hope" but the weather does seem to balance itself out but its the extremes that it seem to have go to perhaps its climate change as yd said and not global warming all world will pay the price at sometime it just seems to be ours at the moment with rain. 


 


quote=Osprey;578756]


Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

The feature developed substantially by UKMO but not by GFS and GEM starts out so small that I find myself wondering if the models might have a hard time resolving it. ...or perhaps it will only have a very small time window in which it can really get going, the missing of which leads to it being absorbed by the general mess of troughing stretching across the Atlantic. After another wet week or so, it's nice to see GFS finally turning off the tap here in FI... let it be, let it be!

Yeh if only it was winter, A one last stand is still possible, I hope that the pacific at roughing rhymes across West NW USA and w USA for a time, also if the Central to N USA Polar Low can give up some ground to High pressure pushing in from their SW with PV Low pressure move across California and West Mid USA, SE USA high Ridging North with low pressure pushing from the west across N Central USA with warm air advection that may change our N Atlantic pattern. The PNA could strengthen for,late Winter so give NW USA and Alaska some much needed rain and snow!!.


Cheers me up even if it is in FI One can but dream of dryness as opposed to hoping for it...


Nick Gilly
07 February 2014 18:16:00
Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.
Charmhills
07 February 2014 18:18:19

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


GFS 12z a warm outliter in deep fi.


Loughborough, EM.

Knowledge is power, ignorance is weakness.

Duane.
Whether Idle
07 February 2014 18:20:25

Originally Posted by: Charmhills 


http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/


GFS 12z a warm outliter in deep fi.



There is clearly the possibility of a drier and cooler end to the month, but who would bet against the raging Atlantic Jet dominating?


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
roger63
07 February 2014 18:20:38

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


It does seem that some Pacific troughing will make a move for California in the near future, all starting with an 'atmospheric river' (as they call it) this weekend that brings a string of warm and moist air from the tropics. This ties in with signs of the longwave ridge/trough shifting a little, although progress looks very slow. At least it will slightly reduce the severity of the drought over there.


The 12z GFS op gets a little further than previous runs pre-192 hours, and it turns out to be just far enough to change the downstream pattern i.e. what affects the UK from day 8.


 


That NE Pacific/western-U.S. ridge has been incredibly persistent this winter - but if I'm remembering things correctly, it seems to have shifted east overall during the past month... just not very far!



Stormchaser is the persistence of this  NE pacific/W estern USA ridge the key to the arrctic outbraks  and then knocking on to our stormy winter?

Polar Low
07 February 2014 18:23:40

bit like rumble in the jungle what a fight back a few cold runs in the mix


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=3&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1


 


 

Polar Low
07 February 2014 18:39:56

Not sure Nicky but same for me but Gav wrote something earlier regarding a extension file change on wetter so cross over may be affected at the moment


Gav wrote regarding wetter:


They've changed links, so;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.png


Is no longer updating.


This;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif


not sure if that would also change your link thou Nicky


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.

David M Porter
07 February 2014 18:51:40

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Not sure Nicky but same for me but Gav wrote something earlier regarding a extension file change on wetter so cross over may be affected at the moment


Gav wrote regarding wetter:


They've changed links, so;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.png


Is no longer updating.


This;


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn061.gif


not sure if that would also change your link thou Nicky


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 

Just out of interest, is anyone having trouble with the GFS run on the jp2webdesign site? For me, it is stuck on the 00z run from 6th February and has been for 36 hours.



I also noticed the same thing about the GFS and mentioned this in here this morning. The chart links now have "gif" at the end rather than "png" as was the case up until yesterday.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Rob K
07 February 2014 18:57:25
Yes that will have messed up the JP2 link as that uses the old png files.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
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