Interesting to note that 1914-1915 was one of the ones on the low hurricane season i updated back on pg44.

Is this our analogue year?

If so,  anyone looking for a sting in the tail of winter can probably forget if going by CETs of Jan 4.1  Feb 4.3  Mar 5.2   April 7.9  (although as per this week, it doesnt rule out any seasonal weather, just not an abundance of it)

That year was also a colder one overall in terms of the CET so might not bode too well for summer? (although it could have been a dry year for all i know)

On a brighter note 1916/17 appears to be a colder Dec,Jan,Feb so some hope for 2015/2016 

 

I remember reading on wunderground during the Hurricane Season that the lack of tropical activity would lead to heightened barclonic activity during the winter season, and believe it or not... we got that. Big time.

So yeah... hopefully it was a nice dry summer that year.

It was cool overall and July was wet I'm afraid.

Spring was dry but on the cool side.

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^ sounds rather dull 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2624

Reading this arcticle out of interest, I stumbled across something interesting that could have substantial knock-on impacts in those regions depending on how February pans out:

"According to weather record researcher Maximiliano Herrera, "over 90% of all stations in the Balkans from Slovenia to Croatia to Bosnia to Serbia To Montenegro to Macedonia to Kosovo etc, have DESTROYED their previous record of warmest January ever (many locations have 100 - 200 years of data.) In many cases the monthly temperatures were 7 - 9°C (13 - 16°F) above average, and the new records were 3 - 4°C above the previous record. This is for THOUSANDS of stations, almost all of them. In Slovenia, for example, Mount Kredarica is the only station in the whole country not to have set its warmest January on record." "

 

I then noticed in the comments a link to this rather incredible story, OT but worth a look: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/australiaandthepacific/marshallislands/10609011/Cast-away-Shipwrecked-man-makes-land-after-16-months-adrift.html

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At least someones getting it - Snow coming down in Bishkek in Central Asia. http://live.saimanet.kg/ru/cams/2#.Uu1VOdI0IZw

A snowy few days ahead with temps well below zero by day and night http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/1528675

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Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun

This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time, and used those that are most similar to the one we're in now to generate analogues... something I might look into one day.

By similar, I mean not just in terms of it being often wet and wild, but also the onset time, which in this case is debateable; it could be said to be either the second half of October or the second half of January, depending on whether you view the couple of drier spells in there (with the December one notable) as variations of the same broad pattern.

 

...so it's not an easy task and rather speculative too I imagine! 

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Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

Yes and with a bit of luck some wintry charts will start to show up

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Can we start a spring thread, starting to see the days get longer now and only be a few weeks until we can feel the warmth of the sun This has been about the worst winter for coldies I can think of, haven't seen one snowflake here, even if the bad 90s winters we had the odd northerly

Yes and with a bit of luck some wintry charts will start to show up

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Just like last year 😃

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I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time, and used those that are most similar to the one we're in now to generate analogues... something I might look into one day.

By similar, I mean not just in terms of it being often wet and wild, but also the onset time, which in this case is debateable; it could be said to be either the second half of October or the second half of January, depending on whether you view the couple of drier spells in there (with the December one notable) as variations of the same broad pattern.

 

...so it's not an easy task and rather speculative too I imagine! 

There are some fascinating historical records from the middle of the last century regarding long periods of 'stuck' weather patterns and how they impacted on a subsistence lifestyle in Europe. This winter highlights just how different the UK can be in relation to the broader picture in Europe - without any charts to look at, it would be an impossible task to interpret how the scattered records tied in synoptically.

I'm starting to wonder what you would find if you looked at past periods where the weather got stuck in the same general pattern and small variations of it for a very long time..

Winters 89/90 and 94/95 were very stormy. In both cases what followed was like a tap being turned off. From mid-March the rest of 1990 & 1995 were very dry, except for June 1990 and September 1995.

Please note this is not a prediction for 2014, although I'm sure many would like a repeat of 1995 which even had a bonus of an easterly December to finish off with.

Thanks for the responses John and Nouska 

The trouble with analogues is that multiple different combinations of driving factors can generate the same sort of surface conditions for our part of the world, and from archived charts it's not always possible to tell what the main driving factors were for given periods of 'stuck in a rut' weather in the past... let alone when looking at historical accounts and the like!

Throw in longer-timescale changes such as the ocean circulations and sea ice extent, and it really does become like trying to piece together a puzzle when the pictures keep changing every 5 seconds.

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To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.

Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010 or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.

 

Andy

Pleased with thar forecast but I wish I had been wrong and I certainly didn't expect it to be so crap! Very mild yes but not so bloody wet.

Andy

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I hope people don't mind. I'm going to repaste my 'year' forecast that I did for the new year so it can be critizised appropiately. I'm keen to see how accurate it turns out to be:

 

_{"I do a personal yearly forecast every year (at least I have for the last 5 years). I've never published before though, thought I might here anyway see if it holds up.}

₂₀₁₄

_January

_{Milder than average especially at first and very unsettled, a chance of cold snowy periods later.}

_{CET above normal}

_February

_{Potentially coldest month of the winter, some snow showers likely in S and E. Unlikely to be overly cold or prolonged though.}

_{CET below normal}

_March

_{Settled, dry, rather chilly. Some late frosts and even wintry showers. Sunshine prevalent}

_{CET below normal}

_April

_{Showery. Slightly below average temperatures. Some settled spells}

_{CET slightly below average}

_May

 _{Extremely dry and sunny. Chilly winds at first, although very warm weather possible later. Perhaps an early heatwave.}

_{CET around average}

_June

_{Very dry theme continuing. Some rather cool sea breezes making temps chilly at times. Somewhat below average temperatures.}

_{CET slightly below average}

_July

_{Another dry month especially in the east. However it will be warmer than june with a few thundery outbreaks possible}

_{CET above average}

_August

_{The dry run ends with august. Changeable, sometimes very wet or showery but still often mild.}

_{CET slightly above average}

_September

_{Dry, rather warm and perhaps thundery. 'Indian summer'.}

_{CET much above average}

_October

_{Probably a little drier than average}

_{CET around average}

_November

_{Drier than average theme perhaps continuing. Average temps, becoming chilly.}

_{CET slightly below average}

_December

_{Changable. Mix of short cold wintry spells and warmer mild spells.}

_{CET around average.}

 

_{I put quite a lot of work into these every year (despite them looking so short). Although only people I know have got to see them before. Its based on a bit of pattern matching and long range models mostly. I don't expect it to be that accurate; mostly just for fun. "}

 

I think January turned out okay, it was mild and unsettled and it was mildest at the start of the month; the CET fell throughout. I don't think the last statement was justified though, there were no cold or snowy periods to speak of; although most transient snowfall did occur during the last part of january. Most of it was restricted to higher ground though. And CET was above average. 

 

Probably going to be out with my february forecast though :S it may well be the coldest month of the winter, though that in itself is hardly an achivement. 

 

 

 

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Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

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Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

And to add to that , why the hell didnt you see all this rain coming ......................fool

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Looks good Q.

The only thing I would criticise would be the use of "Inidian Summer" for September, when it's much more apporpriate in October

And to add to that , why the hell didnt you see all this rain coming ......................fool

I said very unsettled what more do you want 

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020606/run1m2/cfsnh-0-444.png?06

At least CFS hints at something wintry

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020606/run1m2/cfsnh-2-444.png?06

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18

Again CFS hints at a chilly March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18

Most welcome

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18

Again CFS hints at a chilly March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18

Most welcome

Disagree

Low pressure aligned to the south - not great for here

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18

Again CFS hints at a chilly March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18

Most welcome

These charts will flip flop around more than a filanderers appendage.

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http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-624.png?18

Again CFS hints at a chilly March

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014020618/run4/cfsnh-0-744.png?18

Most welcome

Disagree

Low pressure aligned to the south - not great for here

Come on Dave , you would be happy with several inches of the white stuff

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