All predictions forDecember to be sent viaPrivate Messageto Global Warming please
As usual the predictions forDecember will be via PM to me to avoid any tactical predictions in the competition and to keep things as interesting as possible right up to the end of the year. So please don’t post your predictions directly in the thread but send them via private message to me. A full list of the predictions will be published once entries close.
I'm afraid I am late with this thread as I have been very busy. The analysis is also shorter than usual as a result.Entries for this month will therefore be open until 23:59 on 2 December with no penalties.
Decemberhistoric data summary

Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
2012 saw a very average December with 4.8C. Prior to that 2011was warm but 2010 was of course thesecond coldest on record with an incredible -0.7C. 2008 and 2009 were also cold. The warmest December in recent times was 2006 with 6.5C.
December is the only month of the year where the 1981-2010 mean is lower than the 1971-2000 mean and it is lower by some considerable margin.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 5.1C
1981-2010: 4.6C
1988-2012: 4.6C
Here is a chart of theDecember CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.

Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.

GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
The ensembles are currently looking very average indeed in terms of T2m temperatures although the 850's show a swing from mild to cool to who knows what at the end of the run.

ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tn
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=12&type=tx
Again the mean looks fairly average.
Weatheronline
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Month-ahead
Out of date but looks to be on the coolish side
Terry Scholey
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html
Turning colder after a fairly mild start
Netweather
http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/images/lrf/oct2013/xdectemp.png.pagespeed.ic.J810nVS7GP.png
Average
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s/c/A3_plots-temp-DJF.pdf
Expected to be colder than average. Interestingly this trend is expected to continue throughout the winter.

Pm'd mine ... Hopefully recieved...

Sent

Sent mine too!  Thanks GW!

sent mine a couple of hours back.

First look at how the first half of December is shaping up. Looks chilly after today. This is based on the 0z GFS so would look even colder under the 6z.

Friday to Monday looks particularly cold with the CET barely above freezing on those days.

Today's figures from Metcheck  6.04c   Anomaly  1.04c.

                              N-W         5.65c.  Anomaly  0.55c.    

Too early    but  today's figures :-

Met Office Hadley   5.8c.    Anomaly  1.0c.  provisional to 1st....

Metcheck               6.11c.  Anomaly  1.12c.

N-W                      6.42c.  Anomaly  1 .32c.

My   Mean             5.4c. 

First look at how the first half of December is shaping up. Looks chilly after today. This is based on the 0z GFS so would look even colder under the 6z.

Friday to Monday looks particularly cold with the CET barely above freezing on those days.

Cheers Simon - I wonder how this month will turn out.

I felt my CET figure was a real guess this time.

Met Office Hadley   6.1c.    Anomaly   1.1c.   provisional  to   2nd.

Metcheck              6.08c.   Anomaly   1.09c.

N-W                     6.34c.   Anomaly   1.24c.

My   Mean            6.1c.

Met Office Hadley     6.7c.  Anomaly  1.7c. Provisional to 3rd

Metcheck                5.98c  Anomaly 0.99c

N-W                       6.38c. Anomaly 1.28c.

My  Mean               5.8c.    

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

That was out !st December page 6 on November CET watch....

Are we going to get the list of entries for December, GW?

That was out !st December page 6 on November CET watch....

That's not December's entries.

..Sorry. My Mistake..

Met office Hadley    6.6c.     Anomaly     1.5c.     Provisional   to  4th.

Metcheck               5.68c.   Anomaly     0.69c.

 N-W                     6.01c.   Anomaly     0.91c.

My    Mean             5.6c.