Goddamit, first time I do well, and I have a 0.2C penalty 

When I first saw the table of November guesses, I wondered if you had been looking at the same same NOAA analogues as me.

Whilst I didn't have the courage of conviction with the MO at the end of October, I was very tempted to go low, a CET figure of 4.5 to 6.5 being the analogue range. It has been a reasonble tool this year.

Goddamit, first time I do well, and I have a 0.2C penalty 

When I first saw the table of November guesses, I wondered if you had been looking at the same same NOAA analogues as me.

Whilst I didn't have the courage of conviction with the MO at the end of October, I was very tempted to go low, a CET figure of 4.5 to 6.5 being the analogue range. It has been a reasonble tool this year.

I actually base my predictions on only the CFS output and the NAFES ensembles, I'm not sure I've heard of NOAA analogues - I'll be sure to check them out .

But the CFS had been predicting a cold november for a while, and on the day the raw output was particulary cold at the end of the month, so I went below average. 

Goddamit, first time I do well, and I have a 0.2C penalty 

Even so you are provisionally up 14 places in the table to 14th this month. The penalty will have cost you the chance to go 12th.

A few other people towards the top of the table will benefit significantly from their low predictions this month:

Tractor Boy continues his rapid rise up the table and is provisionally up three places into second (highest position of the year), closely followed by Weathermac up four to third. warrenb is provisionally up 12 places into 10th.

So it looks like this year will see October more than 2C above average and November possibly more than 1C below average.

This combination has only happened twice before since 1900.

1969/1970 is an interesting comparison. In that year December was cold at 3.3C (nearly 2C below average but obviously nowhere near as cold as 2010). January was a little below average at 3.7C and February well below at 2.9C. What is particularly interesting is how cold the following March and April were at 3.7C and 6.7C.

The other similar year is 1921/22. November was colder than this year at 4.6C and December turned out very mild at 6.5C. The rest of the winter was unremarkable and fairly average with January at 3.7C and February at 4.4C. But again March and April were very cold with 4.6C and 5.5C.

A set of two data points is not exactly enough to draw any strong messages from but there is certainly a precedent for the type of set up we have had this Autumn to produce a very late start to Spring with very cold weather potentially persisting through most of April. Will be interesting to see what happens. 

So signs are that November will come out below average in terms of temperature.  Weren't the Met Office predicting a mild November?  If so, then it just emphasises the point that no-one can predict any one element of the weather beyond a week or two with any accuracy.

That said, those CFS temperature charts that Gavin P produces in his videos have been, IMO, fairly accurate for up to a month ahead for the last few months...and they have been showing cold temps for late Nov/Dec. 

David 

Northallerton

Goddamit, first time I do well, and I have a 0.2C penalty 

When I first saw the table of November guesses, I wondered if you had been looking at the same same NOAA analogues as me.

Whilst I didn't have the courage of conviction with the MO at the end of October, I was very tempted to go low, a CET figure of 4.5 to 6.5 being the analogue range. It has been a reasonble tool this year.

I actually base my predictions on only the CFS output and the NAFES ensembles, I'm not sure I've heard of NOAA analogues - I'll be sure to check them out .

But the CFS had been predicting a cold november for a while, and on the day the raw output was particulary cold at the end of the month, so I went below average. 

I based mine on the Meto monthly which up until very recently had November down for a mild or very mild month. Just goes to show how even the Meto can get it wrong at short notice.

So it looks like this year will see October more than 2C above average and November possibly more than 1C below average.

This combination has only happened twice before since 1900.

1969/1970 is an interesting comparison. In that year December was cold at 3.3C (nearly 2C below average but obviously nowhere near as cold as 2010). January was a little below average at 3.7C and February well below at 2.9C. What is particularly interesting is how cold the following March and April were at 3.7C and 6.7C.

The other similar year is 1921/22. November was colder than this year at 4.6C and December turned out very mild at 6.5C. The rest of the winter was unremarkable and fairly average with January at 3.7C and February at 4.4C. But again March and April were very cold with 4.6C and 5.5C.

A set of two data points is not exactly enough to draw any strong messages from but there is certainly a precedent for the type of set up we have had this Autumn to produce a very late start to Spring with very cold weather potentially persisting through most of April. Will be interesting to see what happens. 

Cheers thanks for that excellent bit of information there.

All On 7's Today

Met Office Hadley 7.5c.   Anomaly  0.1c.  Provisional  to 16th.

Metcheck            7.35c.  Anomaly  0.42c.

N-W                   7.73c.  Anomaly  0.83c.

My Mean             7.7c.

Met Office Hadley   7.5c.    Anomaly   0.1c.   Provisional  to 17th.

Metcheck               7.40c.  Anomaly   0.48c.

N-W                      7.77c.  Anomaly   0.87c.

My   Mean              7.7c.   

Met Office Hadley    7.5c.   Anomaly  0.2c   provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                7.26c.  Anomaly 0.34c.

N-W                       7.62c.  Anomaly  0.72c.

My   Mean               7.7c. 

So it looks like this year will see October more than 2C above average and November possibly more than 1C below average.

This combination has only happened twice before since 1900.

1969/1970 is an interesting comparison. In that year December was cold at 3.3C (nearly 2C below average but obviously nowhere near as cold as 2010). January was a little below average at 3.7C and February well below at 2.9C. What is particularly interesting is how cold the following March and April were at 3.7C and 6.7C.

The other similar year is 1921/22. November was colder than this year at 4.6C and December turned out very mild at 6.5C. The rest of the winter was unremarkable and fairly average with January at 3.7C and February at 4.4C. But again March and April were very cold with 4.6C and 5.5C.

A set of two data points is not exactly enough to draw any strong messages from but there is certainly a precedent for the type of set up we have had this Autumn to produce a very late start to Spring with very cold weather potentially persisting through most of April. Will be interesting to see what happens. 

Another delayed spring?

I don't mind another delayed spring if we get another good summer!  I think it's only a case of 'delayed' in comparison to recent years though because I remember winter going into April in my younger days.

Met Office Hadley   7.3c.    Anomaly  0.1c.  provisional to 19th.

Metcheck               7.1c.    Anomaly  0.09c. 

N-W                      7.37c.  Anomaly  0.47c.

My  Mean              7.4c.      

Mean is 5.5C here, incidentally the annual CET here is on 8.6C and falling, wouldn't be surprised if 2013 turns out colder than 2012 which was 8.4C, but probably above 2010 (7.9C)

Met Office Hadley   7.1c.    Anomaly  -0.0c.   provisional to 20th.

Metcheck               6.90c.  Anomaly  -0.02c.

N-W                      7.27c.  Anomaly   0.37c.

My     Mean           7.2c.

Hmmm.  What my 7c guess reeally needs now is for a slight rise in temps.  No?  I didn't think so!   

Met Office Hadley     7.1c.   Anomaly    0.0c.    provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                 6.78c. Anolmaly  -0.15c.

N-W                        7.14c. Anomaly    0.24c.

My mean                 7.1c.

Met  Office  Hadley     7.0c.    Anomaly   -0.1c.  Provisional   to  22nd.

Metcheck                   6.60c   Anomaly   -0.32c.

N-W                          6.97c.  Anomaly    0.07c.

My  Mean                   6.9c.

As of this morning, my maximum average is 0.772°C below the LTA, and my minimum average is 0.772°C below the LTA.

That's not an error! A genuine fluke of statistics there 

Remarkably, my minimum average looks to fall below 3°C within a day or two, which then makes it the lowest I've recorded for November going back to 2003, with 2010 bang-on 3°C.

...we may not have the snow but we certainly have the cold, relatively speaking!