Latest 2 week tropical forecast from Colorado State:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/september_27_2013.pdf

These boys have put their hands up and called a bust to the earlier predictions of an above average season, but do explain circumstances in detail.

It does of course beg the question: If parameter-specific seasonal forecasts can go so badly wrong, what confidence is there in modeling other areas (namely, 500mb height anomolies for winter in NW Europe?)

I think you answered that question already Neil

Very true, Dave. It was, as they say, rhetorical

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Well TD11 has just made it to TD Jerry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301432.shtml?

A mid-Atalntic game of cat and mouse now as Jerry spins around in a clockwise spiral.

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Well TD11 has just made it to TD Jerry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301432.shtml?

A mid-Atalntic game of cat and mouse now as Jerry spins around in a clockwise spiral.

Another feeble storm to add to the list. It's no wonder that this thread isn't full of excited analysis this year I suppose it's helpful for me as it means less distraction from my work...

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TS Karen at last giving us something to discuss, although shear and ssts will likely limit Karen's intensity as she moves N across the GOM.]

As it stands, Karen will be at worst a Cat 1 hurricane on landfall somewhere near the AL/FL coast around Pensicola in 3 days time.

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Karen is exceeding the expectations of many, with data supporting a strong tropical storm at least.

The 06z GFS op run intensified the storm to 988mb, which usually translates to a cat. 2 when it comes to that model. What happened to the high wind shear that was expected? GFS does call it wrong quite often though.

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Sadly, Karen decapitated

such violent words from the NHC

it's pretty much Game Over for TS Karen

Karen is forecast to add some more life to 'snowstorm Atlas';

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

that might pep up the North Atlantic circulation more than allowed for by current models in the FI future.

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Another 9 days on and again 'No tropical systems at this time'.

Could we really go through a whole season without a single US landfall hurricane or indeed any TS of note?
And after a forecast of 'above average' activity?

Something strange going on in the neighbourhood methinks.

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Yes it really does look like a notably quiet season unless something changes. In terms of ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) it is on track to be in the quietest ten seasons since 1950 or indeed quietest five if there are no more tropical cyclones before the end of the season.

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Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?

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Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?

Morning [sn_bsmil] .

I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon.

To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes" [sn_clown]

Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data.

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Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?

Morning .

I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon.

To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes"

Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data.

We do and they are. The 2009 season for instance:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2009.png

Hurricane Ida tracked across the GOM in the first week of November.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png

In 2008, Hurricane Paloma hit Cuba in November.

All recorded, archived and included in the season stats.

 

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Thanks Neil.

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Another quiet atlantic season. Was the pacific also quiet or are these supressed conditions limited to the atlantic?

The Pacific churned out a series of cat. 5 monsters last month.

Overall, they've had three more tropical storms than the LTA, but four less typhoons.

...so nothing particularly unusual, although I haven't considered the accumulated cyclone energy yet - that being because I can't find any reference to it anywhere.

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Ryan Maue maintains a page on Basin ACE - latest scores are as follows.

BASIN CURRENT YTD
N. Hemisphere
362.013
Western Pacific
235.218
Central Pacific
6.31
North Atlantic
28.55
Eastern Pacific
69.045
North Indian
22.89
Global
486.3080

You will see the climatology to which this compares in this link.

http://policlimate.com/tropical/ 

A quick mention for Melissa - formed this afternoon and classed as a sub-tropical storm. 18Z best track was showing as 60mph.
AL, 14, 2013111818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 540W, 50, 987, SS

Can she make it to hurricane status and boost the meagre stats - seems sub tropical cetegory will not add to ACE.

Model track and intensity forecasts.

http://i.imgur.com/3mDMsCS.png 

http://i.imgur.com/Rk6SxzJ.png 

Satellite overlays from tonight.

http://i.imgur.com/kFXfmM6.gif 

I am just back from Riviera Maya in Mexico..spoke to a few locals who said that this summer had been v quiet with regard to storms. Also to note was the very unusual high humidity and rainfall in November which generally is much fresher and dry.

Not quite Atlantic-tropical based but thought it was interesting to note that there is not one but two cyclones over the Indian Ocean at the moment: http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/MET-7-0900B.jpg

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