Originally Posted by: nsrobins

Well TD11 has just made it to TD Jerry

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/301432.shtml?

A mid-Atalntic game of cat and mouse now as Jerry spins around in a clockwise spiral.

Another feeble storm to add to the list. It's no wonder that this thread isn't full of excited analysis this year I suppose it's helpful for me as it means less distraction from my work...

Karen is exceeding the expectations of many, with data supporting a strong tropical storm at least.

The 06z GFS op run intensified the storm to 988mb, which usually translates to a cat. 2 when it comes to that model. What happened to the high wind shear that was expected? GFS does call it wrong quite often though.

Karen is forecast to add some more life to 'snowstorm Atlas';

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

that might pep up the North Atlantic circulation more than allowed for by current models in the FI future.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins

<p>Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?</p>

Morning .

I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon.

To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes"

Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data.

The Pacific churned out a series of cat. 5 monsters last month.

Overall, they've had three more tropical storms than the LTA, but four less typhoons.

...so nothing particularly unusual, although I haven't considered the accumulated cyclone energy yet - that being because I can't find any reference to it anywhere.

AL, 14, 2013111818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 540W, 50, 987, SS

Can she make it to hurricane status and boost the meagre stats - seems sub tropical cetegory will not add to ACE.

Model track and intensity forecasts.

http://i.imgur.com/3mDMsCS.png

http://i.imgur.com/Rk6SxzJ.png

Satellite overlays from tonight.

http://i.imgur.com/kFXfmM6.gif

Not quite Atlantic-tropical based but thought it was interesting to note that there is not one but two cyclones over the Indian Ocean at the moment: http://www.fvalk.com/images/Day_image/MET-7-0900B.jpg