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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: Sevendust  Originally Posted by: nsrobins  Latest 2 week tropical forecast from Colorado State: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/september_27_2013.pdf These boys have put their hands up and called a bust to the earlier predictions of an above average season, but do explain circumstances in detail.
It does of course beg the question: If parameter-specific seasonal forecasts can go so badly wrong, what confidence is there in modeling other areas (namely, 500mb height anomolies for winter in NW Europe?)  I think you answered that question already Neil Very true, Dave. It was, as they say, rhetorical  |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,956  Location: West Hants
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins  Another feeble storm to add to the list. It's no wonder that this thread isn't full of excited analysis this year I suppose it's helpful for me as it means less distraction from my work...   |
If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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TS Karen at last giving us something to discuss, although shear and ssts will likely limit Karen's intensity as she moves N across the GOM.] As it stands, Karen will be at worst a Cat 1 hurricane on landfall somewhere near the AL/FL coast around Pensicola in 3 days time. |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,956  Location: West Hants
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Karen is exceeding the expectations of many, with data supporting a strong tropical storm at least. The 06z GFS op run intensified the storm to 988mb, which usually translates to a cat. 2 when it comes to that model. What happened to the high wind shear that was expected? GFS does call it wrong quite often though.
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If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Sadly, Karen decapitated such violent words from the NHC it's pretty much Game Over for TS Karen
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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,685  Location: Chichester 12m. asl
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It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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Another 9 days on and again 'No tropical systems at this time'. Could we really go through a whole season without a single US landfall hurricane or indeed any TS of note? And after a forecast of 'above average' activity?
Something strange going on in the neighbourhood methinks. |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Yes it really does look like a notably quiet season unless something changes. In terms of ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) it is on track to be in the quietest ten seasons since 1950 or indeed quietest five if there are no more tropical cyclones before the end of the season. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon? |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins  <p>Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon?</p> Morning . I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon. To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes" Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,389 Location: South Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: doctormog  Originally Posted by: nsrobins  Good morning Michael. OT and using this very quiet thread a moment, are we to expect some 'Aberdeen-cams' streaming the arrival of the UK winter soon? Morning  . I'm tempted to set one up for myself on an occasional basis this year. However I will leave any Aberdeen camera link posting until there is a more realistic chance of wintry weather on the horizon. To edge tenuously back on topic..Perhaps all our cyclone activity this year will come from "snowicanes" Actually, I meant to ask, do the official hurricane season data and statistics include activity that may occur beyond the end of the month? I'm not forecasting any as such but I can't remember if we had November tropical cyclones if they would be included in the 2013 season's data. We do and they are. The 2009 season for instance: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2009.png Hurricane Ida tracked across the GOM in the first week of November. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2008.png In 2008, Hurricane Paloma hit Cuba in November.
All recorded, archived and included in the season stats. |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 71,902
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,970 Location: st albans
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Another quiet atlantic season. Was the pacific also quiet or are these supressed conditions limited to the atlantic?
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,956  Location: West Hants
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The Pacific churned out a series of cat. 5 monsters last month. Overall, they've had three more tropical storms than the LTA, but four less typhoons. ...so nothing particularly unusual, although I haven't considered the accumulated cyclone energy yet - that being because I can't find any reference to it anywhere.
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If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,632 Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.
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Ryan Maue maintains a page on Basin ACE - latest scores are as follows. BASIN CURRENT YTD N. Hemisphere 362.013 Western Pacific 235.218 Central Pacific 6.31 North Atlantic 28.55 Eastern Pacific 69.045 North Indian 22.89 Global 486.3080 You will see the climatology to which this compares in this link. http://policlimate.com/tropical/
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,632 Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.
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A quick mention for Melissa - formed this afternoon and classed as a sub-tropical storm. 18Z best track was showing as 60mph. AL, 14, 2013111818, , BEST, 0, 295N, 540W, 50, 987, SS Can she make it to hurricane status and boost the meagre stats - seems sub tropical cetegory will not add to ACE. Model track and intensity forecasts. http://i.imgur.com/3mDMsCS.png http://i.imgur.com/Rk6SxzJ.png Satellite overlays from tonight. http://i.imgur.com/kFXfmM6.gif
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,289  Location: Irvine
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I am just back from Riviera Maya in Mexico..spoke to a few locals who said that this summer had been v quiet with regard to storms. Also to note was the very unusual high humidity and rainfall in November which generally is much fresher and dry.
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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 27,981  Location: Folkestone (near the coast)
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