A few particularly warm days on the way now, with the next two days looking to raise my local mean by 0.4°C, which will leave me close to 15°C believe it or not!

Shame that, rather unusually, I'm almost a whole degree Celsius above the CET at the moment

Met Office Hadley     13.5c.    Anomaly   -0.4c.    provisional to  21 st.

Metcheck                 12.89c.  Anomaly   -0.88c.

N - W                      13.91c.   Anomaly   0.21c.

My   Mean                14.3c.

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Met Office Hadley    13.7c. Anomaly  -0.2c.    provisional to 22 nd.

Metcheck                13.05c. Anomaly   -0.67c.

N-W                       14.01c. Anomaly   0.31c.

My        Mean          14.4c.     

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

Lower` Lower` Lower....

Met Office Hadley   13.8c.  Anomaly    -0.1c.    Provisional  to  23 rd.

Metcheck              13.7c.  Anomaly    -0.55c.

N - W                  14.08c.  Anomaly    0.38c.

My   Mean          14.5c.

What a crazy old September this is. After around a week of maximum temperatures struggling to get much above my predicted CET value (15.2°C), much of the CET zone is now seeing minimums falling not much below that figure!

By my calculations it will now take something truly exceptional to bring the CET up to 15°C, let alone above.

Attempting to account for GFS tending to drop temperatures too far overnight (was 3°C too low for last night in many areas), and taking ECM into consideration, a rough estimate for the final CET is 14.7°C, but that's dependant on the Atlantic being slower to push NE as per the ECM evolution.

Certainly has been a strange month hasn't it?

Think those of us that went low to mid 14's could be looking good.

Here is a final list of the predictions for September

Still under 14c not sure how high it will actually go now.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Not much change expected over the last few days of the month..

Recon that the low 14's will get it..

Manley is still at 13.6;

http://www.climate-uk.com

Looks like with downwards corrections we'll end up in the high 13's.

Metcheck 13.36c. At the moment.

My CET estimate up to yesterday is 13.59C so very much in line with Manley. My calculations are running about 0.35C below the provisional Hadley figure.

I expect very little change in the mean over the final few days of the month, just a very slight increase. I am currently estimating a final figure of 13.67C which is almost exactly in line with the 1971-2000 mean of 13.71C.

The 1961-90 average CET for September appears to be 13.6C. Your estimated CET for September is 0.11C above that. So, as far as the data on the Hadley site is concerned, this year of two halves continues. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Will all the remaining months of 2013 be above 1961-90, I wonder?

Can somebody please explain why Hadley use such an out of date period for thier mean monthly temps??

1961-1990 is 30 to 50 years+ out of date!! and to me seems plain stupid.

would it not be better to use 1991 to 2010 as the benchmark period and much more relevent to the present day.

Can somebody please explain why Hadley use such an out of date period for thier mean monthly temps??

1961-1990 is 30 to 50 years+ out of date!! and to me seems plain stupid.

would it not be better to use 1991 to 2010 as the benchmark period and much more relevent to the present day.

It says why they do here..

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Also, it give a good like for like comparison going back hundreds of years.

Hadley 13.9c.  Metcheck 13.37. N-W 14.2c. My Mean 14.6c.

Looks like 2013 will be another September that fails to get above 14c. There has been a definete cooling trend with September since the peak of the hot September era in 2006!

Though worth pointing out we still haven't had a significantly cold September - Will be 20 years next year since we had a sub 13c September.

Well that means the CET looks to finish over a degree below my own mean.

That's a very rare occurance and very, very annoying