Snow in the arctic is now above average, unlike last year where it was still below. In fact there is some snow unusually far south in parts of canada, russia and even iceland. This may interest winter forecastors more than sea ice watchers. 

The snow cover in central Canada probably won't interest sea ice watchers - it's over a thousand miles away LOL.

Sorry for what may sound like a really stupid question. Most of the south end of Portsea Island is at or even just below sea level. The average high tide mark on the sea wall in Old Portsmouth has been in the same position for over three hundred years. The stone built quay is still being used today. If, year on year, temperatures are rising along with sea levels, why is most of Portsmouth not under water?

Bad luck?

Seriously though, I think there are regional variations in the overall rate of sea level rises. Perhaps the UK waters, or at least some of them have been effected to a lesser extent (so far)? That's just a guess though. I belie pave the data are out there, including global maps but I haven't looked at them before writing this.

I would have thought that the gradual lowering of land mass in the south may have made a difference too but perhaps these are all within the range which would be masked by large changes associated with tidal flows or storm surges etc. ?

Edit: Peter wouldn't the land mass in the south sinking actually exacerbate the effects of sea level rises?

Oh yes, silly me, half asleep today  (and probably why I'm incautiously dismissing that life from space story ).

Edit: otoh...if SE England is sinking how come the sea level at Portsmouth seems to have stayed the same?

Edit again: I see SE England is sinking at ~1mm/year which means the tide at Postsmouth should be nearly a foot higher in 300 years?

Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!

Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!

There is a lot of reading there. Can you save me some time and point to one such article that genuinely, would leave this reader, with the idea, that there is genuine scientific argument that high sensitivity to CO2 doubling is highly unlikely?

 

Seems most of the lit seems to think that the climate sensitivity to doubling of CO2 is about 3C, I can't really find any indication that it is significantly less than 2C. 

Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),

The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

Lots of articles on sensitivity and the attendant uncertainties - go and take a look!

There is a lot of reading there. Can you save me some time and point to one such article that genuinely, would leave this reader, with the idea, that there is genuine scientific argument that high sensitivity to CO2 doubling is highly unlikely?

 

Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),

The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),

The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....

Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),

The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....

Did anyone on this Arctic sea ice thread seem to put forward this near sublimimal message?.

Is not the early /southerly snow extent not in line with the papers we have been looking at? Surely the stats looking at seasonal difference in temp change clue us up ( if not the R.H. of the global air?),

The thing to look at is how this winter snow impacts spring/summer temps? If the snow (no matter how deep) goes before summer do we not face the 'Albedo flip' forcing we read so much about?

Funny thing, I thought more warmth and more moisture led to more snowfall? It seems that early snowfall is being put forward with a near-subliminal message that it must be getting colder....

Did anyone on this Arctic sea ice thread seem to put forward this near sublimimal message?.

No, AIMSIR. Perhaps I'm being overly sensitive? Pavlov's dogs and all that....

I think the CA,might kick off soon.

Very low temps knocking around that region.

The main basin might follow in four or five days after the warm inclusion on the European side backs off.imo.
I hope it does and we can get back to the ice.

I think it's time to remind folk of the 'trend line' for ice loss.

We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?

 

We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?

Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo

It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)

I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.

We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.

 

We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?

I think it will show up nicely on the winter/ spring trends.

Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo

It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)

I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.

We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.

Not subliminal enough for you, AIMSIR?

 

We are all pleased to see how the ice cover rebounded this year ( compared to the record low of last year) but does it impact upon the 30 yr 'trend' for sea ice loss in the Arctic Basin over the past 30yrs?

I think it will show up nicely on the winter/ spring trends.

Especially the winter trend,it will almost bring this trend to 2% decade, if not lower by the time we are finished this year's refreeze.imo

It certainly will not impact too much on the annual trend.(for now)

I cut out the "I think it's time to remind folk". bit. (Daddy Wolf) If you don't mind?.

We are all well aware here, of the situation and bright enough not to need need reminders.OK?.

Not subliminal enough for you, AIMSIR?

Looking at another trend?.(minimum to maximum area increase)
I think during this year's refreeze season we could get above the 1979/2008 Zero anomaly line in this chart.

For Ref: Cryosphere Today.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg

Concidering the position/location of the leftover ice this year and the gaps that will be filled as we go through the season,I think we could easilly break through.

So you think Barrentsz and Baffin will ice this year Aimsir? How do you envisage such a thing with the ocean temps appearing to call the tune?

As for 'records' are we not facing a very poor 'area' rebuild over winter just by the very fact that there is less open water to freeze this winter ( due to 'rebound' ice cover)? 

So you think Barrentsz and Baffin will ice this year Aimsir? How do you envisage such a thing with the ocean temps appearing to call the tune?

As for 'records' are we not facing a very poor 'area' rebuild over winter just by the very fact that there is less open water to freeze this winter ( due to 'rebound' ice cover)? 

But there still is more open water than normal ready to leak heat away to the winter night.

Especially on the European side.

The rebound certainly cannot be like last years,but I reckon by the trends in the chart I have shown earlier we could expect to take on about 1.25 million overall.

I don't see any reason,btw, why Baffin and Barrents will not ice this year. do you?.

Have you seen the recent trend toward below normal sst anomalies for both the above areas?.

SSTS look above average still, especially in the atlantic sector

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif

The angry reds near noya zemyla have become all too common in recent years. 

SSTS look above average still, especially in the atlantic sector

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif

The angry reds near noya zemyla have become all too common in recent years. 

SSTS look above average still, especially in the atlantic sector

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/sst/sst.daily.anom.gif

The angry reds near noya zemyla have become all too common in recent years. 

It aint gonna freeze anytime soon though.