theweatheroutlook

KevBrads1
10 September 2013 13:28:44
Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.


Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010 or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.


 


Andy



Can't figure out where people are getting that from given that 2011/12 was so mild, plus the fact we had so many mild winters during the 90's and early 2000's so, if anything, we are due a long run of very cold winters.



You say early 2000s but IMO I would go even further, it wasn't until 2008-09 that we actually got what I called a half decent coldish winter. 2005-06 wasn't mild but neither were it cold. The Manchester Winter Index finally broke through 100 barrier for the first time since 1995-96 for winter 2008-09.

And as I made in a recent post, if we are talking about quotas, checks and balances are we not overdue a notably cold February?

I personally not a great believer in quotas etc as what balances what out?
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Snowfan
10 September 2013 16:21:28
richardabdn
10 September 2013 18:37:56

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.


Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010 or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.


 


Andy



Can't figure out where people are getting that from given that 2011/12 was so mild, plus the fact we had so many mild winters during the 90's and early 2000's so, if anything, we are due a long run of very cold winters.



Completely agree. It's ridiculous to suggest a mild winter is overdue. 3 of the last 7 winters here (06/07, 07/08 and 11/12) have been very mild and virtually snowless compared to only one between 1999 and 2006 (99/00).



 

2009/10 and 2010/11 have been the only properly cold winters in the past decade here and in the case of the latter was entirely due to the extreme December. 2008/09 was average and last winter wasn't all that cold and certainly not snowy.





 

In any case I'm only interested in seeing decent snowfalls which the likes of 1998/99, 2001/02, 2003/04 all managed despite being milder than average and which last winter didn't despite being colder than average. 





No point in being cold if you don't get decent hard frosts or good snowfalls. 3 months of March 2013 weather would be a nightmare come true.
Aberdeen: The only place that misses out on everything


2023 - The Year that's Constantly Worse than a Bad November
LeedsLad123
10 September 2013 19:02:33
Yeah. We need a 2-decade run of mostly cold winters to offset the 90s and most of the 2000s.
Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
nsrobins
11 September 2013 10:52:49

Originally Posted by: richardabdn 


Completely agree. It's ridiculous to suggest a mild winter is overdue. 3 of the last 7 winters here (06/07, 07/08 and 11/12) have been very mild and virtually snowless compared to only one between 1999 and 2006 (99/00).



 


 

But we're not talking about 'here' or 'there' are we? 2011/12 CET shows Dec and Jan being just a degree above the mean and Feb was actually colder than the mean.

I know the fact that the lack of a six-week blizzard and permafrost in your garden caused you a great deal of anger, but surely we can only discuss UK-wide trends and averages at this stage

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ManUtdMatt1986
11 September 2013 12:01:39

Decided to start a little experiment on my page to see how accurate the long range models actually are - https://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatchUK/posts/234140603406594?notif_t=like

Any possible pressure setups I've missed out?

nsrobins
11 September 2013 12:13:33

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Decided to start a little experiment on my page to see how accurate the long range models actually are - https://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatchUK/posts/234140603406594?notif_t=like

Any possible pressure setups I've missed out?



Blocked here at work but I'll definitely have a look at that later.

Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
ManUtdMatt1986
11 September 2013 12:24:37

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Decided to start a little experiment on my page to see how accurate the long range models actually are - https://www.facebook.com/WeatherWatchUK/posts/234140603406594?notif_t=like

Any possible pressure setups I've missed out?



Blocked here at work but I'll definitely have a look at that later.



As an experiment I thought I would start doing a count of the different options shown by the CFS model for the winter and Christmas periods (perhaps the other long range models too but they update less frequently) just to see how close to the actual outcome they end up being.

So, starting with this morning's model run.




December 2013

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to ou...r north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland High)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0




January 2014

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland to Scandinavia)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0




February 2014

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0




Christmas 2013

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland High)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0


 


 


I guess I should add "High pressure close to/over the UK, delivering cool and calm conditions".
ManUtdMatt1986
11 September 2013 15:18:09

Upadted scores following the latest CFS update.


 




DECEMBER 2013

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland High)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 1

Temperature

Well below average - 1
Slightly below average - 0
Average - 0
Slightly above average - 1
Well above average - 0

 



JANUARY 2014

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 2 (1 x Greenland to Scandinavia, 1 x Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0

Temperature

Well below average - 2
Slightly below average - 0
Average - 0
Slightly above average - 0
Well above average - 0

 



FEBRUARY 2014

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 2 (2 x Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0

Temperature

Well below average - 1
Slightly below average - 1
Average - 0
Slightly above average - 0
Well above average - 0

 



CHRISTMAS 2013

Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland)

Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0

Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 1

Temperature

Well below average - 1
Slightly below average - 0
Average - 0
Slightly above average - 1
Well above average - 0
ManUtdMatt1986
11 September 2013 20:17:58

CFS scores update following the 18z run.


DECEMBER 2013


 


Pressure

Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland High)


Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0


Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 2


 


Temperature


Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 2   Well above average - 0


 


 


JANUARY 2014


 


Pressure


Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 3 (2 x Greenland to Scandinavia, 1 x Greenland)


Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0


Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0


 


Temperature


Well below average - 3   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 0   Well above average - 0


 


 


FEBRUARY 2014


 


Pressure


 Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 3 (1 x Greenland to Scandinavia, 2 x Greenland)


Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0


Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 0


 


Temperature


Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 2   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 0   Well above average - 0


 


 


CHRISTMAS 2013


 


Pressure


Northern Blocking delivering cold (i.e. high pressure to our north & low pressure to our south) - 1 (Greenland)


Northern blocking not delivering cold (i.e. the blocking is too far west or east to cut off mild westerlies) - 0


Zonal (i.e. high pressure to our south & low pressure to our north resulting in mild westerlies) - 2


 


Temperature


Well below average - 1   Slightly below average - 0   Average - 0   Slightly above average - 2   Well above average - 0

glenogle
11 September 2013 22:22:20
I would hope you are not going to update every six hours all the way up to winter! Pick one run say the wed 12z and update once a week following that particular update?

Anyway. My post was a question/other factor to consider. What bearing did the number of huricanes/timing of in the season, have on the following winter. Ie this season quiet so far. Are there similar years to compare against
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
Gavin P
12 September 2013 10:04:22

Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
12 September 2013 11:55:46

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.



 


I'd take a repeat of Nov/Dec 2010!!



 


Martin
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ManUtdMatt1986
12 September 2013 12:15:22

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.




I wish I could understand that model

Gavin P
12 September 2013 12:35:06

Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.




I wish I could understand that model



It's fairly straight forward. Each box represents a different element. Main boxes to focus on are;


1. TS (Temperature)


2. Rain


3. Z500 (500mbr heights)


4. PSEA (Sea Level Pressure)


Just move the charts on one month at a time - Three monthly period is curently covering Oct-Dec.


 


 

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
ManUtdMatt1986
12 September 2013 13:02:55

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Originally Posted by: ManUtdMatt1986 


Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.




I wish I could understand that model



It's fairly straight forward. Each box represents a different element. Main boxes to focus on are;


1. TS (Temperature)


2. Rain


3. Z500 (500mbr heights)


4. PSEA (Sea Level Pressure)


Just move the charts on one month at a time - Three monthly period is curently covering Oct-Dec.


 


 



Thanks Gavin. I didn't understand all the abbreviations.


Look forward to your next few videos.

I see what you mean about Northern Blocking starting to show up already from looking at the latest GFS and ECM charts.

Gooner
12 September 2013 16:48:46

Originally Posted by: Gavin P 


Here's the latest tri-monthly update from JMA;


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php


November and December both look quite cold, IMO.



Cheers Gav

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


mikeyo
12 September 2013 17:32:46

I don't believe in the odds that we're due a mild winter because malarky.


Why not look at this another way and say that we're due a crippling 2 months with feet of snow in most parts of the country starting on December 25th?

DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
12 September 2013 18:30:56

Originally Posted by: Andy Woodcock 


To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.



Statistcal twaddle!


Either the winter pattern is random, in which case last year is no guide to this year (in the same way that if a coin was heads last time that 'proves' it will be tails this time); or else there is a pattern established, in which case next winter is more likely to be like last winter than not.

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
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