Great to see this thread return! There's been so much interest in our winter predictions since 09 and 10. Here's hoping for something special again although personally I think we are due a non event like the winters of the early 2000s. I hope I'm wrong .
Scott
Penicuik 188 asl

Great to see this thread return! There's been so much interest in our winter predictions since 09 and 10. Here's hoping for something special again although personally I think we are due a non event like the winters of the early 2000s. I hope I'm wrong .
Scott
Penicuik 188 asl

 

Winter 2011/12 was a non-event. A totally mind numblingly boring mild winter.

I'd love a nice cold winter, but like has been said, personal preference doesn't make a difference. 

However, a mild winter is not necessarily due, and we are still three months away.

If we look back at the winter of 2011/12 we will remember how there was a lot of hype about a winter like no other for forty years etc. It didn't happen in the end, all the strong signals that apparently showed a cold winter approaching did their business elsewhere, and such a change could happen again in this case.

I agree that easterly/north easterly winds can produce some beasty winters, but is it not also possible that such blasts can come from the north and Greenland? Such blasts are possibly not as liely to have the same strength as a 'beast from the east' but nevertheless we could expect something quite icy from there.

Also, a cold winter simply means colder than average, which I think is often forgotten. An averag winter is certainly capable of producing some icy/snowy spells.

 

As for mild winters, they are hardly going to be indian summers. If anything, we would probably see a miserable and boring 6 degrees with western wind and rain. 

To be honest I can't remember when there was last a mid and dry winter, but this doesn't mean 'we are due one'. In fact more than anything it proves that they are very unlikely.

I'm 60 but like a big kid I still run around the room and jump up and down when snow has fallen 

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Great to see this thread return! There's been so much interest in our winter predictions since 09 and 10. Here's hoping for something special again although personally I think we are due a non event like the winters of the early 2000s. I hope I'm wrong .
Scott
Penicuik 188 asl

 

Winter 2011/12 was a non-event. A totally mind numblingly boring mild winter.

I agree apart from a dusting one morning in mid December and about 3-4 inches one evening in February with a week of cold it was a boring Winter, quite disappointing compared to the previous ones. I'm glad last Winter was better.

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I'm 60 but like a big kid I still run around the room and jump up and down when snow has fallen 

Yeah, I know what you mean and I'm only 37.

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Great to see this thread return! There's been so much interest in our winter predictions since 09 and 10. Here's hoping for something special again although personally I think we are due a non event like the winters of the early 2000s. I hope I'm wrong .
Scott
Penicuik 188 asl

 

Winter 2011/12 was a non-event. A totally mind numblingly boring mild winter.

I agree apart from a dusting one morning in mid December and about 3-4 inches one evening in February with a week of cold it was a boring Winter, quite disappointing compared to the previous ones. I'm glad last Winter was better.

I've been quite lucky here, the last 4 winters have seen a decent fall at some point forcing work to close / stay shut

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I predict that the length of this winter thread will overtake the autumn thread before September 15th.

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

The latesdt update,Sept 9th, from NOAA of CFSv2 shows increasing cold anomalies over Scandinavia for the months of Dec,Jan,Feb.

To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.

Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010 or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.

 

Andy

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I predict that the length of this winter thread will overtake the autumn thread before September 15th.

 

That's hardly going out on a limb, matey 

 

 

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For all you pattern matchers out there, this year has been very much like '95... And remember that December?
Flipping cold I tell you!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

The latesdt update,Sept 9th, from NOAA of CFSv2 shows increasing cold anomalies over Scandinavia for the months of Dec,Jan,Feb.

Looking at the 700mb anomaly charts, I can see a mixed October acting as a transition month after which mid-lat blocking starts to build to higher latitudes in November. By December we have proper high-latitude blocking but not without interruptions. Seeing the largest area of +ve anomalies near to Svalbard and extending towards Siberia is promising for some long-fetch continental cold.

The blocking becomes very dominant in January - CFS has been showing a similar idea for some time now, and it does resemble what it got up to prior to March 2013....!

In February the blocking starts to wane but the anomalies still look loaded with potential considering the over-energetic nature of the CFS model, which tends to generate strong storms that force their way to higher latitudes that it is realistic to anticipate.

In fact, if you take the fact that CFS hasn't wavered much on the broad theme of the winter months over the past few weeks, and then adjust the -ve anomalies in the charts southward a bit to account for that poleward bias... well, then you're looking at a potentially very cold winter being suggested.

It's just one model though, and there are numerous others out there - which Gavin P reviews in his excellent seasonal outlook videos.

Firstly, there's the Met Office's ensemble model, which I have some respect for, and has offered support on previous updates - so my eyes are on that one when the new charts come through.

Next is JAMSTEC/JAM. Not sure I really take much stock in that one as it's a bit hit and miss, but it would be nice to get that one in support.

Then there's the BCC - now that model is a bit of a joke IMO, as it's been way wide of the mark for the last few seasons.

There's a couple of others but I can't recall them off the top of my head and even if I could I don't think I'd have much of a clue regarding their pros and cons.

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For all you pattern matchers out there, this year has been very much like '95... And remember that December?
Flipping cold I tell you!

In terms of patterms both Summer 95 and summer 21023 were VERY WARM,VERY DRY.Such summers have a weak link to winter with 45% followed by warm winters,55% cold.

The Spring type in 1995 was COLD,VERY DRY with following winters 55% warm, 45% cold -not astrong indicator.In 2-13 Spring wa sVERY COLD ,DRYwhich is a strong  cold winter indicator,85% of fololwing winter being below average

Moving finally to Autumn 1995 was VERY WARM DRY,which is not a great indicator 45% warm,55% cold.

So wait Autumn type for 2014 with interest.

To be honest a very mild winter is overdue and thats where my money is, nothing scientific to back this up but when you consider 4 out of the last 5 has been cold something has to give.

Here in East Cumbria nothing could be as frustrating as last winter so the thought of a 3 month Bartlett doesnt worry me, yes a 2010 or 2011 winter would be nice but this is the UK and I think we have used up our quota of cold winters for a while.

 

Andy

Can't figure out where people are getting that from given that 2011/12 was so mild, plus the fact we had so many mild winters during the 90's and early 2000's so, if anything, we are due a long run of very cold winters.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

The latesdt update,Sept 9th, from NOAA of CFSv2 shows increasing cold anomalies over Scandinavia for the months of Dec,Jan,Feb.

Looking at the 700mb anomaly charts, I can see a mixed October acting as a transition month after which mid-lat blocking starts to build to higher latitudes in November. By December we have proper high-latitude blocking but not without interruptions. Seeing the largest area of +ve anomalies near to Svalbard and extending towards Siberia is promising for some long-fetch continental cold.

The blocking becomes very dominant in January - CFS has been showing a similar idea for some time now, and it does resemble what it got up to prior to March 2013....!

In February the blocking starts to wane but the anomalies still look loaded with potential considering the over-energetic nature of the CFS model, which tends to generate strong storms that force their way to higher latitudes that it is realistic to anticipate.

In fact, if you take the fact that CFS hasn't wavered much on the broad theme of the winter months over the past few weeks, and then adjust the -ve anomalies in the charts southward a bit to account for that poleward bias... well, then you're looking at a potentially very cold winter being suggested.

It's just one model though, and there are numerous others out there - which Gavin P reviews in his excellent seasonal outlook videos.

Firstly, there's the Met Office's ensemble model, which I have some respect for, and has offered support on previous updates - so my eyes are on that one when the new charts come through.

Next is JAMSTEC/JAM. Not sure I really take much stock in that one as it's a bit hit and miss, but it would be nice to get that one in support.

Then there's the BCC - now that model is a bit of a joke IMO, as it's been way wide of the mark for the last few seasons.

There's a couple of others but I can't recall them off the top of my head and even if I could I don't think I'd have much of a clue regarding their pros and cons.

There's the Russian, Korean and Brazillian model's + JMA.

Personally I like JAMSTEC/IOD - If this autumn turns out cooler than average (and I'm increasingly thinking it could do) it was the only model consistently predicting it - 6 out of 8 updates from this model went for a cooler than average autumn.

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This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.  Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

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This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.  Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

One more run like that from CFS, due next Thursday week, and I'll be waxing the skis.

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This mornings CFS 9month has a very cold and snowy January.  Obviously its early days but the signs look good for another cold winter.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=2874&mode=2&carte=0&run=1

One more run like that from CFS, due next Thursday week, and I'll be waxing the skis.

 

The CFS charts are scary for January

 

For those of you who like dates and coincidences....

2013/14 is the 200th anniversary of the awesome winter of 1813/14 with a DJF CET of 0.4 C. Only 1962/3 was colder in the 200 years since.

2013/14 is also an England Ashes tour of Australia, which for reasons unknown often coincides with a bad winter.

If next Thursday's charts are similar I'll be digging out the thermals

 

 

 

We not had a notably cold February for years. The last one was 1991. We have had December 2010 and the cold January 2010, both at least 2.0C below the 1961-90 average in recent times. Add in that the fact we just had that remarkably cold March, it feels like a really cold February has to be round the corner.

If we can get a December and March as cold as that still, I can't see why we can't get a frigid February at least in the near future.

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