Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,281  Location: Winchester,Hampshire
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Winter Indicators. Here we are 3 months way from the start of winter,and asking the perennial question" will it be a cold winter? Four of the last five winters have been cold so does the law of averages come into play to redress the balance or could it be cold again?What are the early signals from the key indicators? 1.ENSO. The latest ENSO diagnostic discussion (Sept 5th) concludes "ENSO neutral is favoured through the northern hemisphere winter 2013/14."For DJF the various models show a split between weak negative and weak positive indices with the average trending slightly positive.Such years are slightly more likely to be accompanied by colder than average winters. 2.SST's. End of May north atlantic SST,s are generally most closely linked to winter CET.Howebver I always have trouble idenitfying a clear tripole pattern which is the cold indicator.Maybe Gavin P can give his verdict on what signal is coming from May SST's.The pattern seems to show cold anomalies off NE USA and Canada and to the east of Iceland with above average in Mid Atlantic. 3.QBO. In autumn 2012 the QBO was in negative mode andthis npersoted though winter 2012/13.This Autumn the QBO is in positive territory normally supposed to indicate warmer winters.However this indicator is somewhat unreiable as the cold winter of 2010/11 was positive and the warm winter of 2011/12 was negative! 4.Sunspot Activity. Cycle 24 is the weakest cycle since the early 20Th century.It now looks as if the peak was 96.7 in Nov 2011,witha secondary peak of 78.7 in May this year.Overall activity level is low and lower than fprecast.However work by the University of readind and METO suggest the strongest link to the CET is at solar minimum. 5.Models. CFSv 2 shows broadly neutral temperature conditions over the UK,with precipitationslightly below average.The trend over th elast month or seems to have been a shift on th ewarm anomaly towards SE Europe. Meto tercile probability maps shows no clear temperature sinal obver the UK although warmer than aveage probabilities in the Arctic region.Precipitation is broadly normal and a slight tendency for higher than average pressure to ther north of the UK and slightly lower pressure towards southern europe. 6.Seasonal Pattern Matching. The very cold dry spring has a 75% chance of being followed bya colder than average winter.The very dry very warm summer is not astrong indicator either way. 7.Conclusion. Signals are variable all rather weakand suggesting a near average winter.It seems best to llok at the trends in the CFSv2 models and the METO probability maps before making a conclusion at the end of November! Edited by moderator 07 September 2013 11:38:46(UTC)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,281  Location: Winchester,Hampshire
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,714
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As long as the Azores high keeps close to us we wont be seeing much in the way of cold, as seen in previous winters. That said I personally think that the weak activity of the sun will assist in any cold weather that gets to us, being very cold.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,419 Location: South Hampshire
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Thanks for the work on this and the links. I am not a great believer in trying to predict so far ahead but the data is out there for anyone willing to spend hours trying to determine whether there is a link between the myriad of parameters and the consequent anomilies season by season. You say that looking again at the end of November for signals would be better. I agree, but it won't stop us discussing the prospects  |
Neil Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river) Stormchaser, Member TORRO
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,138  Location: Everywhere
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Originally Posted by: RavenCraven  As long as the Azores high keeps close to us we wont be seeing much in the way of cold, as seen in previous winters. That said I personally think that the weak activity of the sun will assist in any cold weather that gets to us, being very cold. If a dry or very dry winter results than a drought is likely next year for sure. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 16/09/2006(UTC) Posts: 4,281  Location: Winchester,Hampshire
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Originally Posted by: nsrobins  Thanks for the work on this and the links. I am not a great believer in trying to predict so far ahead but the data is out there for anyone willing to spend hours trying to determine whether there is a link between the myriad of parameters and the consequent anomilies season by season. You say that looking again at the end of November for signals would be better. I agree, but it won't stop us discussing the prospects  Thanks Neil,agree plenty to discuss before November end -just that I dont feel signals are clear enough for me to nail my colours to the mast yet!
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,745  Location: Folkestone
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Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.  We are due one.  |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 31,068  Location: Albion
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Gut feeling is a rather ordinary winter with no prolonged, widespread, cold or snow.
And using my patent Antipodean method, it's looking like a rather mild winter with probably at least one record warm month Though this does not preclude some decent snow, especially in upland areas. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 26,053 Location: Leysdown-on-Sea
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.  We are due one.  We're just as much due a cold, snowy winter. Good job personal preferences don't affect the weather, isn't it? 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 44,238 
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.  We are due one.  You what  |
Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun
Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/11/2011(UTC) Posts: 1,536 Location: Bournemouth
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Indeed 4 out of the past 5 winters have been coldand i would be suprised if this coming winter will be cold as well although we are bound to get some cold spells. We are long overdue a wet winter with well above average rainfall and that is what im hoping for
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 14,745  Location: Folkestone
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Originally Posted by: Gooner  Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.  We are due one.  You what   Marcus, My job role these days means that snow and bitterly cold weather results in days and days away from home. In the last 4 years I reckon I've only played in the stuff a couple of times.
Having said all that I will probably still get very excited when the beast starts to stir in those FI charts.  Indeed Darren. It is a good job that preferences don't affect the type of weather we get. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 65,255  Location: Lost
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country. We are due one.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,138  Location: Everywhere
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Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.  We are due one.  Steve, do I detect Physical warfare! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 65,255  Location: Lost
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Originally Posted by: Charmhills  Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country. We are due one. Steve, do I detect Physical warfare! Psychological I would have thought. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 47,138  Location: Everywhere
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Originally Posted by: Matty H  Originally Posted by: Charmhills  Originally Posted by: Gusty  Here's hoping for a dry, very mild and quiet winter with a persistent area of high pressure close to the SW of the country.[/i] Psychological I would have thought. Yeah thats what I meant. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 03/08/2006(UTC) Posts: 18,548  Location: Lenzie, Kirkintilloch, Glasgow
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Originally Posted by: springsunshine  Indeed 4 out of the past 5 winters have been coldand i would be suprised if this coming winter will be cold as well although we are bound to get some cold spells. We are long overdue a wet winter with well above average rainfall and that is what im hoping for I thought some places had that last winter, at least at the start. |
"Sometimes what we accept as the truth may not be the full story".
Hercule Poirot (David Suchet)
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/06/2006(UTC) Posts: 16,344 Location: North Downs, East Kent
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The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK. |
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch? |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,970 Location: st albans
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Originally Posted by: Justin W  The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK. if only twas that easy justin. part of the jigsaw but not an overriding factor (neutral ENSO may give it a bigger piece though). i can confidently state that the upcoming winter will be colder than the summer just ended .
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/06/2006(UTC) Posts: 16,344 Location: North Downs, East Kent
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Originally Posted by: nickl  Originally Posted by: Justin W  The QBO is trending strongly positive now so it looks like we're looking at a strong polar vortex this winter increasing the likelihood of a mainly westerly flow over the UK. if only twas that easy justin. part of the jigsaw but not an overriding factor (neutral ENSO may give it a bigger piece though). i can confidently state that the upcoming winter will be colder than the summer just ended . 
As I said - "increasing the likelihood". Not guaranteeing. Neutral ENSO conditions (if that is what we end up with) will help but the state of the polar vortex is a major factor when it comes to western European winters. We end up relying upon significant SSWs to displace the PV and divert the Atlantic train. |
Yo yo yo. 148-3 to the 3 to the 6 to the 9, representing the ABQ, what up, biatch? |
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