There will be a few eyebrows raised by this.

http://imgur.com/GnT1RQE 

Sandy was modelled a long way out.

There will be a few eyebrows raised by this.

http://imgur.com/GnT1RQE

Sandy was modelled a long way out.

I would certainly expect activity to increase by next weekend... MJO due to go into a moderate phase 1/ phase 8 period.

This means increased thunderstorm activity in the central tropical Atlantic / West coast of Africa so conditions for tropical storm formation won't be as brisk.

Some high positive temperature anomalies have been developing in the MDR over the past few days so plenty of fuel for tropical storms to develop if the thunderstorms can merge.

I still think we will have some high ACE totals in September, although it is unusual for no hurricanes to have formed upto this date.

---

GFS certainly reflects this in the 12Z run - maybe two systems by month end.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013082512/gfsfull_pres_pcpn_atl_55.png

I like this simulated Infra-red  picture.

TD6 has been classified in the Bay of Campache. By the looks of it, a low-end TS is not out of the question:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/imagery/rgb_lalo-animated.gif

In fact, I'd say that's the nicest looking storm of the season so far!

Potentially only a cameo role in the season for Fernand if TD gets named - it's heading west into Mexico.

---

GFS has a nice not-so-little tropical storm in mid-Atlantic at 300 hr, bang over the Irish Sea at 360 hr. Where did thatcome from? http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

It appeared on some of the runs a coule of days ago, but wasn't to be seen on yesterday's output. Something being hinted at, but very far from being nailed on.

---

For anyone wondering, TD 6 did become Fernand for a short time and reached 50mph max. sustained winds before running into Mexico.

All eyes are now on the Main Development Region of the Tropical Atlantic, where potentially several tropical waves from Africa are expected to develop into tropical systems, with a good chance of becoming the season's first hurricanes if a strong upward phase of the MJO arrives about a week from now, as the models currently predict.

---

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

It's actually less regular but more intense.

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

It's actually less regular but more intense.

So where have these intsense hurricanes been hiding over the last few years Tom?

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

It's actually less regular but more intense.

So where have these intsense hurricanes been hiding over the last few years Tom?

In the Atlantic, do you have to bring up climate change in a weather forum ? Happy to discuss predictions of hurricane frequency and intensity in the climate forum as I have time.

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

It's actually less regular but more intense.

So where have these intsense hurricanes been hiding over the last few years Tom?

In the Atlantic, do you have to bring up climate change in a weather forum ? Happy to discuss predictions of hurricane frequency and intensity in the climate forum as I have time.

It's nothing to do with climate change Tom, it's a simple question of why the intensity of hurricanes has been on the decline during the last few years. Are the waters around the equator cooler than in previous years?

Are the waters around the equator cooler than in previous years?

Looking at the current SST anomaly chart [link below] the equatorial Atlantic looks to have a mixture of average and above average temperatures, so it is not SSTs which are suppressing tropical storm development this year. We have no El Nino either - another factor known to suppress hurricane develpment in the Atlantic sector.

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

A factor suppressing storm development this year appears to have been stable air combined with intrusion of Saharan dust. This stable pattern may not continue. Major hurricanes have sometimes occurred in years that have started quietly.

Such a quiet August was unexpected given that we have no El Nino.

Quite amazing really how we haven't seen one Hurricane since the season started, whatever happened to the theory that hurricanes will become more regular and intense.

It's actually less regular but more intense.

So where have these intsense hurricanes been hiding over the last few years Tom?

The Philippines

Have you forgotten Bopha already?

Don't be so American

---

TS Gabrielle has developed from a low south of Hispaniola but she may not be up to much as she moves into a lot of shear in a few days (if she survives the land interaction).
In the meantime GFS still keen on developing a strong system in 8 days time running up the eastern seaboard.
If the revised predictions are to be proved correct, we really should start to see some organised systems developing very soon.

---

Things certainly seem to be developing in the tropics now don't they?

Probably one of the reason's for the model uncertainty for us as well.

BTW Neil, your "inbox" is full.

 

---

BTW Neil, your "inbox" is full.

 

Fixed

---

Looks like TS Gabrielle has disintegrated already, with conditions over the next week or so looking unfavourable for any major development at all, the forecasts for an above average season look like a bust, unless things turn around in a big way.

Particularly strange when you consider the fact that most hurricane seasons are forecast very well, 2013 has took everyone by surprise because all conditions on the face of things look very favourable for an active season.

I think that this has to be the most boring hurricane season in history so far, but it's not just the Atlantic thats struggling, the whole northern hemisphere is, very unusual indeed.

---

Looks like TS Gabrielle has disintegrated already, with conditions over the next week or so looking unfavourable for any major development at all, the forecasts for an above average season look like a bust, unless things turn around in a big way.

Particularly strange when you consider the fact that most hurricane seasons are forecast very well, 2013 has took everyone by surprise because all conditions on the face of things look very favourable for an active season.

I think that this has to be the most boring hurricane season in history, but it's not just the Atlantic thats struggling, the whole northern hemisphere is, very unusual indeed.

A tad too early to be calling it a bust yet.

---

Looks like TS Gabrielle has disintegrated already, with conditions over the next week or so looking unfavourable for any major development at all, the forecasts for an above average season look like a bust, unless things turn around in a big way.

Particularly strange when you consider the fact that most hurricane seasons are forecast very well, 2013 has took everyone by surprise because all conditions on the face of things look very favourable for an active season.

I think that this has to be the most boring hurricane season in history, but it's not just the Atlantic thats struggling, the whole northern hemisphere is, very unusual indeed.

A tad too early to be calling it a bust yet.

Yeah that could well be the case, one thing I've noticed about the past two year is how many storms have struggled to develop into a cat 3 or higher, we have been through a very quiet phase.

In order to match up to forecasts earlier on in the summer the second half of the hurricane season has got to be especially active, it's possible, but to not get any hurricanes by mid Sept is unusual.

---

With so little to use up the energy stores, anything that does find itself in favourable conditions without any intefering from other systems (a tropical wave to the east of Gabrielle has played a major part in her demise), then there could be something memorable in 2013's season... ideally a strong major hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic that doesn't affect land - unfortunately, that's a rare occurance.

Failing that, the winter storms will have a lot of fuel to work with!

---