Final Hadley figure for August is 16.88C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013

Warmest August since 2004. Warmest July and August combination since 2006. First time both July and August have been more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean since 2003.

So we have a number of winners this month who all correctly predicted 16.9C:

Easterly Beasterly, Hippydave, marting, Nemi and Rob Snowman. Well done all.

Philip Eden's CET series finished at 17.1C http://www.climate-uk.com/

Several big thanks here to you Simon. Firstly the graphics. These new colour graphics are excellent - they are so clear and sharp - Nice to read as well.

Thanks also for the stats - These are excellent - It realy does show that the summer we have just had was really quite good and in excellent in mnay areas as well.

I can certainly say so for my part of the country.

 

 

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Thanks for all your hard work GW, well done the winners. Surprising that such a lovely month, here anyway, was only a little above normal.


I wonder, if corrections are applied to Hadley, how come the final figure is available so soon? Are they automatically done?

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Annual CET competition – August update

We are now two-thirds of the way through the year and it is still very tight in the competition so anything can still happen. We do have a new leader this month.

The predictions in August were generally excellent. The average error for the 62 people left in the competition was just 0.53C beating the 0.68C in April. We lost just one person this month which was Johnny25.

After a spot on prediction for August Nemi now leads the table and is the only person with a cumulative error less than 7C.

Remarkably Taylor1740 has not been outside the top three all year and just stays ahead of Norseman in third on count back.

The Professional climbs two places to fourth, the third time this year in that position. Stormchaser is a non-mover in fifth.

Easterly Beasterly and Edicius81 both climb one place to sixth and seventh respectively for their highest positions of the year.

The biggest faller in the top 10 this month is once again Weathermac down three to eighth after spending three consecutive months in first place earlier in the year.

Roonie and Charmhills swap places in rounding out the top 10.

Further down Hungry Tiger and redmoons reach their highest positions of the year in 19^th and 25^th respectively.

There are only three double digit movers this month, nouska down 12 to 27^th, moomin75 down 15 to 53^rd and ARTzeman down 19 at 56^th.

A very interesting stat is that markwells in 61^st place has made four predictions this year within 0.5C of the actual CET (all of which has been in the last five months). Nobody else has a better record than this. The other people with four predictions with an error less than 0.5C are Nemi, The Professional and Rob Snowman. Unfortunately in the other 4 months markwells’ predictions have been way off.

It is also interesting to look at the cumulative errors in the last 5 months. Often the biggest errors arise in the winter months and of course in March this year almost everyone had a shocker due to the exceptional cold. If we just look at the period since April the top 10 would be as follows:

1 Easterly Beasterly 2.42
2 Sevendust 2.44
3 The Professional 3.01
4 Edicius81 3.08
5 Nemi 3.17
6 alan 3.23
7 Quantum 3.34
8 domma 3.34
9 Hungry Tiger 3.38
10 Dougie 3.42

August biggest climbers
46 Hippydave (↑8)
41 Alvin Meister (↑7)
39 marting (↑7)
19 Hungry Tiger (↑7)
23 Steam Fog (↑6)
43 GezM (↑6)
45 roger63 (↑6)
50 D McAlister (↑6)

August biggest fallers
56 ARTzeman (↓19)
53 moomin75 (↓15)
27 nouska (↓12)
29 Surrey John (↓7)
49 Llamedos (↓6)
59 AP Snowman (↓6)

For those of you interested in the detailed stats for the year so far here is the table showing the monthly prediction errors (yellow colouring means an error of less than 0.5C and orange means no prediction was made that month) and each person's position in the tables by month.

 

I'll go for just above average I reckon. That's going on the basis of a few hot days and then most of the rest being around average or just above.

I'll go for

16.8C

Heavens above - bang on pretty well.

 

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Thanks for all the facts and fogures GW.

Loving the new graphics.

I seem to be having a reasonable mid-year - Looking for a top ten finish.

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Thanks GW, liking the new graphics and easy on the eye colours - not liking my change in position, major fail in the method this month. Probably a repeat for September too!

Oh dear, is all I can say!

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Great stuff GW, thanks.

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Thanks GW.

Just like cet Checking...

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Brilliant stuff GW, thanks so much for running this!

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Thanks GW

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Thanks GW, fantastic stats and analysis as ever

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Met Office Hadley CET for August put the figure as 16.9c. Anomaly 1.1c..

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Met Office Hadley CET for August put the figure as 16.9c. Anomaly 1.1c..

That is the rounded figure. The official figure to 2 decimals is as per the link I posted yesterday.

The anomaly quoted by Hadley is against the 1961-1990 averages. I use more recent averages for comparison.

Many thanks GW

August has brought the top 5 closer together, making it a hard-fought competition as we begin September. Looks like an interesting Autumn ahead in the CET competition

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Well done to the winners and many thanks to GW for all the hard work involved with running this competition.  It's great to see so many people taking part. 

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