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Offline nouska  
#21 Posted : 15 August 2013 10:23:15(UTC)
nouska

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,632
Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

The JMA have just updated their ensemble forecast for the three autumn months - it has Z500 polar view with the UK at 11 o' clock position.

September http://i.imgur.com/1H7XvT5.png

October http://i.imgur.com/GvYN5Mg.png

November http://i.imgur.com/7D3EsJE.png

Offline Gavin P  
#22 Posted : 15 August 2013 10:43:49(UTC)
Gavin P

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Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
The JMA have just updated their ensemble forecast for the three autumn months - it has Z500 polar view with the UK at 11 o' clock position.

September http://i.imgur.com/1H7XvT5.png

October http://i.imgur.com/GvYN5Mg.png

November http://i.imgur.com/7D3EsJE.png

Suspect those charts (or something very similar) will be turning up in my final autumn forecast later this morning.

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline Charmhills  
#23 Posted : 15 August 2013 10:47:06(UTC)
Charmhills

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Location: Everywhere

The Met Office probability forecast are not the best are are rarely right regarding seasonal forecasts.

Duane.

Offline nsrobins  
#24 Posted : 15 August 2013 11:00:02(UTC)
nsrobins

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
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Location: South Hampshire

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

Maybe Gavin, but at least the positive 500HPa anomoly is not centred to the south of the UK (assuming it were to verify as you say)

Neil

Wickham, Hampshire 25m ASL (on river)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Offline White Meadows  
#25 Posted : 16 August 2013 12:53:32(UTC)
White Meadows

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Posts: 2,094
Location: West Sussex

Is CFS v2 now showing mild conditions throughout winter? It seems to me that general confidence & opinion fluctuates in line with its output.
Offline Stormchaser  
#26 Posted : 16 August 2013 20:01:56(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Posts: 11,864
Man
Location: West Hants

Originally Posted by: nsrobins Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

Maybe Gavin, but at least the positive 500HPa anomoly is not centred to the south of the UK (assuming it were to verify as you say)

Looks like a persistent mid-Atlantic High to me, which can be dull and dreary in a NW flow. If it extended further east, bright but chilly would be possible, whereas if it pulled back west... a back-end northerly could transpire - so while I'd rather have the +ve anomalies to the NE, it sure is far better than having them to the south in November

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

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T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Gavin P  
#27 Posted : 16 August 2013 21:20:57(UTC)
Gavin P

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Just to say my autumn 2013 forecast will be issued next Sunday. 25th August.

I had hoped to get it done this weekend, but several models still haven't updated.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline polarwind  
#28 Posted : 19 August 2013 09:53:17(UTC)
polarwind

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Location: Derby

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post
Is CFS v2 now showing mild conditions throughout winter? It seems to me that general confidence & opinion fluctuates in line with its output.
Yep, that's about right

"The professional standards of science must impose a framework of discipline and at the same time encourage rebellion against it". – Michael Polyani (1962)

"If climate science is sound and accurate, then it should be able to respond effectively to all the points raised…." - Grandad

"The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts". - Bertrand Russell

"Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts" – Richard Feynman

"A consensus means that everyone agrees to say collectively what no one believes individually.”- Abba Eban, Israeli diplomat

Dave,Derby

Offline Solar Cycles  
#29 Posted : 20 August 2013 07:38:06(UTC)
Solar Cycles

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Location: Blackburn Lancs

Originally Posted by: White Meadows Go to Quoted Post
Is CFS v2 now showing mild conditions throughout winter? It seems to me that general confidence & opinion fluctuates in line with its output.
Not really the trend remains the same for high latitude blocking either to our NW/NE. It's best not to view each run as if it's gospel.

Offline GIBBY  
#30 Posted : 22 August 2013 11:36:23(UTC)
GIBBY

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Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Bath

Here is my latest stab at how I feel the Autumn Season will progress as we move well into the second half of the year now

 

So what will be the theme of Autumn 2013. Dry, Wet, Warm or Cold, read on and I will try and predict how I see things panning out. Autumns in general can be very changeable with some Septembers being like Summer with less daylight while Novembers can be cold, frosty and foggy at the other end of the spectrum. Here's how I see these three months in 2013.

I think September as a whole will see a good deal of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to or over the UK for large periods of time with some warm weather to be head too with temperatures overall above the long term mean. There will be some shorter more unsettled spells with some rainfall but the month will probably end up drier than usual. Night's will be chilly at times and the incidence of mist and fog will increase as we move through the month with even the first touches of frost possible towards the end of the month. Sunshine is likely to be above average overall.

October looks likely to be turning more Autumnal with the Atlantic carrying some ex-tropical storms across the Atlantic making for much windier weather than September with some very wet periods too. Rainfall will likely end up above average in the North and West and near to or slightly above in the SE where some drier spells are likely. The month as a whole will most likely see temperatures close to average for the time of year with some colder interludes towards the North where wintry showers could make their presence felt by the end of the month along with frost at night. Sunshine amounts will more likely be close to or below average for the month as a whole, especially in the North.

November looks like the month will be characterized as rather cold but rather drier with a lot of cold, anticyclonic weather developing through the month, Mist and fog could well become a common issue night and morning persisting all day in places towards the end of the month. Frosts will become quite common too, especially away from the foggy areas. Some short milder interludes are likely too through the month when strong winds from the SW could bring areas of rain across the UK from the Atlantic. Temperatures over the month as a while will be below average with normal rainfall achieved from the short wet spells and sunshine rather lower than average. The incidence of snow is unlikely in November this year in the South but will fall on Northern high ground at times in showers following behind the short rainier spells.

In Summary this Autumn looks like a typical Autumn with highly seasonal weather from each month that we in the UK would expect. Some warm summery days are likely regularly through September with some Autumnal gales and heavy rain take hold in October before November becomes quieter again with fog and frost the main weather issues. Early snowfall looks like being reserved for the North this year, probably resulting from cold polar air masses behind cold fronts in late October and November but I don't see any particularly notable snowy events occurring over the UK this side of Winter starting in December.

TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AVERAGES OVERALL 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 

SUNSHINE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 

FOG AND/OR FROST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

GALES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL 

My next seasonal Prediction will be released in mid November or shortly afterwards.

Martin G

Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset

Look up my New Facebook Weather Page for all the latest up to the minute weather stories as they happen
Offline ARTzeman  
#31 Posted : 22 August 2013 11:45:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

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Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
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Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Thanks Martin..

I like the clear frosty nights so shall enjoy the Autumn.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn

ManUtdMatt1986  
#32 Posted : 22 August 2013 14:52:55(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: GIBBY Go to Quoted Post

Here is my latest stab at how I feel the Autumn Season will progress as we move well into the second half of the year now

 

So what will be the theme of Autumn 2013. Dry, Wet, Warm or Cold, read on and I will try and predict how I see things panning out. Autumns in general can be very changeable with some Septembers being like Summer with less daylight while Novembers can be cold, frosty and foggy at the other end of the spectrum. Here's how I see these three months in 2013.

I think September as a whole will see a good deal of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to or over the UK for large periods of time with some warm weather to be head too with temperatures overall above the long term mean. There will be some shorter more unsettled spells with some rainfall but the month will probably end up drier than usual. Night's will be chilly at times and the incidence of mist and fog will increase as we move through the month with even the first touches of frost possible towards the end of the month. Sunshine is likely to be above average overall.

October looks likely to be turning more Autumnal with the Atlantic carrying some ex-tropical storms across the Atlantic making for much windier weather than September with some very wet periods too. Rainfall will likely end up above average in the North and West and near to or slightly above in the SE where some drier spells are likely. The month as a whole will most likely see temperatures close to average for the time of year with some colder interludes towards the North where wintry showers could make their presence felt by the end of the month along with frost at night. Sunshine amounts will more likely be close to or below average for the month as a whole, especially in the North.

November looks like the month will be characterized as rather cold but rather drier with a lot of cold, anticyclonic weather developing through the month, Mist and fog could well become a common issue night and morning persisting all day in places towards the end of the month. Frosts will become quite common too, especially away from the foggy areas. Some short milder interludes are likely too through the month when strong winds from the SW could bring areas of rain across the UK from the Atlantic. Temperatures over the month as a while will be below average with normal rainfall achieved from the short wet spells and sunshine rather lower than average. The incidence of snow is unlikely in November this year in the South but will fall on Northern high ground at times in showers following behind the short rainier spells.

In Summary this Autumn looks like a typical Autumn with highly seasonal weather from each month that we in the UK would expect. Some warm summery days are likely regularly through September with some Autumnal gales and heavy rain take hold in October before November becomes quieter again with fog and frost the main weather issues. Early snowfall looks like being reserved for the North this year, probably resulting from cold polar air masses behind cold fronts in late October and November but I don't see any particularly notable snowy events occurring over the UK this side of Winter starting in December.

TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AVERAGES OVERALL 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 

SUNSHINE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 

FOG AND/OR FROST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

GALES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL 

My next seasonal Prediction will be released in mid November or shortly afterwards.

Hi Gibby. I don't do seasonal forecasts myself (its beyond my knowledge) so I was wondering whether I may share your Autumn forecast to my followers on my Facebook page? Obviously, I would credit yourself for the forecast and post a link to your website.

Offline picturesareme  
#33 Posted : 22 August 2013 22:52:21(UTC)
picturesareme

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 16/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 5,124
Location: costa solent

its already been sub zero by dayacross northeast siberia.. quite widely.

Not sure how normal this is for this point in august, and what a cod autumn in the arctic could mean for us here.

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/wetterk_arctic_world.html

http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif

Crazy!!

Gone from day highs between -8 & -2 to between +12 & +18 in 24hrs!!

Edited by user 23 August 2013 11:27:17(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline bruced  
#34 Posted : 24 August 2013 16:41:26(UTC)
bruced

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 141

www.solen.info/solar/index.html 

 

It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment.  Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least.  The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (in my opinion) to a reinvigorated jetstrean.

I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!

I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12?  Is this right? 

David

Northallerton

David
ManUtdMatt1986  
#35 Posted : 25 August 2013 07:59:31(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Originally Posted by: nouska Go to Quoted Post
The JMA have just updated their ensemble forecast for the three autumn months - it has Z500 polar view with the UK at 11 o' clock position.

September http://i.imgur.com/1H7XvT5.png

October http://i.imgur.com/GvYN5Mg.png

November http://i.imgur.com/7D3EsJE.png

Suspect those charts (or something very similar) will be turning up in my final autumn forecast later this morning.

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.



and the usual idiotic "winter is over" comments before its even begun.

Offline doctormog  
#36 Posted : 25 August 2013 08:15:49(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 70,587

Originally Posted by: bruced Go to Quoted Post
<p>www.solen.info/solar/index.html&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment. &nbsp;Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least. &nbsp;The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (<strong>in my opinion)</strong> to a reinvigorated jetstrean.</p>

<p>I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!</p>

<p>I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12? &nbsp;Is this right?&nbsp;</p>

<p>David</p>

<p>Northallerton</p>

Solar activity looks pretty steady at the moment, ignoring the usual daily/weekly variability.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/f10.gif

If there is a direct correlation between solar activity and the weather in NW Europe, then based on the current and recent data I would not expect the impact to be significantly different to what it has been over the last couple of years (as the activity does not look significant different). Of course even allowing for a connection between zonal winds and solar activity it is I suspect only one of many factors.

Steam Fog  
#37 Posted : 25 August 2013 08:29:08(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: bruced Go to Quoted Post
<p>www.solen.info/solar/index.html&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment. &nbsp;Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least. &nbsp;The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (<strong>in my opinion)</strong> to a reinvigorated jetstrean.</p>

<p>I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!</p>

<p>I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12? &nbsp;Is this right?&nbsp;</p>

<p>David</p>

<p>Northallerton</p>

Why do you think solar activity is on the way up?

Offline Gavin P  
#38 Posted : 25 August 2013 12:59:11(UTC)
Gavin P

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 35,330
Man
United Kingdom

Hi all,

Here's my final autumn 2013 foreast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A very, very hard one to call this time.

Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://gavsweathervids.com/

Offline sriram  
#39 Posted : 26 August 2013 19:38:33(UTC)
sriram

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 4,305
Man
Location: Sedgley West Midlands

Interesting to note that Roger Smith on Gavin P website is calling winter 2013-14 definitely mild

But

The met office models and the long range model output are going for a cold winter

So anything can happen next winter

Sriram

Sedgley, West Midlands ( just south of Wolverhampton )

162m ASL

caldog  
#40 Posted : 29 August 2013 09:47:16(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

Originally Posted by: Gavin P Go to Quoted Post

Hi all,

Here's my final autumn 2013 foreast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A very, very hard one to call this time.

Thanks for the video Gavin, very interesting. If september is going to be warmer than average, I would certainly welcome that, especially considering we have some making up to do after last summer. Also a cooler end to autumn and a potentially cold winter would be very welcome here. I'm going to follow this very closely indeed.

I'm wondering if we may see a stormy autumn.

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