Suspect those charts (or something very similar) will be turning up in my final autumn forecast later this morning.

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

The Met Office probability forecast are not the best are are rarely right regarding seasonal forecasts.

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

Maybe Gavin, but at least the positive 500HPa anomoly is not centred to the south of the UK (assuming it were to verify as you say)

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

Maybe Gavin, but at least the positive 500HPa anomoly is not centred to the south of the UK (assuming it were to verify as you say)

Looks like a persistent mid-Atlantic High to me, which can be dull and dreary in a NW flow. If it extended further east, bright but chilly would be possible, whereas if it pulled back west... a back-end northerly could transpire - so while I'd rather have the +ve anomalies to the NE, it sure is far better than having them to the south in November

Just to say my autumn 2013 forecast will be issued next Sunday. 25th August.

I had hoped to get it done this weekend, but several models still haven't updated.

Is CFS v2 now showing mild conditions throughout winter? It seems to me that general confidence & opinion fluctuates in line with its output.

Is CFS v2 now showing mild conditions throughout winter? It seems to me that general confidence & opinion fluctuates in line with its output.

I think September as a whole will see a good deal of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to or over the UK for large periods of time with some warm weather to be head too with temperatures overall above the long term mean. There will be some shorter more unsettled spells with some rainfall but the month will probably end up drier than usual. Night's will be chilly at times and the incidence of mist and fog will increase as we move through the month with even the first touches of frost possible towards the end of the month. Sunshine is likely to be above average overall.

October looks likely to be turning more Autumnal with the Atlantic carrying some ex-tropical storms across the Atlantic making for much windier weather than September with some very wet periods too. Rainfall will likely end up above average in the North and West and near to or slightly above in the SE where some drier spells are likely. The month as a whole will most likely see temperatures close to average for the time of year with some colder interludes towards the North where wintry showers could make their presence felt by the end of the month along with frost at night. Sunshine amounts will more likely be close to or below average for the month as a whole, especially in the North.

November looks like the month will be characterized as rather cold but rather drier with a lot of cold, anticyclonic weather developing through the month, Mist and fog could well become a common issue night and morning persisting all day in places towards the end of the month. Frosts will become quite common too, especially away from the foggy areas. Some short milder interludes are likely too through the month when strong winds from the SW could bring areas of rain across the UK from the Atlantic. Temperatures over the month as a while will be below average with normal rainfall achieved from the short wet spells and sunshine rather lower than average. The incidence of snow is unlikely in November this year in the South but will fall on Northern high ground at times in showers following behind the short rainier spells.

In Summary this Autumn looks like a typical Autumn with highly seasonal weather from each month that we in the UK would expect. Some warm summery days are likely regularly through September with some Autumnal gales and heavy rain take hold in October before November becomes quieter again with fog and frost the main weather issues. Early snowfall looks like being reserved for the North this year, probably resulting from cold polar air masses behind cold fronts in late October and November but I don't see any particularly notable snowy events occurring over the UK this side of Winter starting in December.

TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AVERAGES OVERALL 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 

SUNSHINE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 

FOG AND/OR FROST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

GALES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL 

My next seasonal Prediction will be released in mid November or shortly afterwards.

Thanks Martin..

I like the clear frosty nights so shall enjoy the Autumn.

Here is my latest stab at how I feel the Autumn Season will progress as we move well into the second half of the year now

 

So what will be the theme of Autumn 2013. Dry, Wet, Warm or Cold, read on and I will try and predict how I see things panning out. Autumns in general can be very changeable with some Septembers being like Summer with less daylight while Novembers can be cold, frosty and foggy at the other end of the spectrum. Here's how I see these three months in 2013.

I think September as a whole will see a good deal of dry and settled weather with High pressure close to or over the UK for large periods of time with some warm weather to be head too with temperatures overall above the long term mean. There will be some shorter more unsettled spells with some rainfall but the month will probably end up drier than usual. Night's will be chilly at times and the incidence of mist and fog will increase as we move through the month with even the first touches of frost possible towards the end of the month. Sunshine is likely to be above average overall.

October looks likely to be turning more Autumnal with the Atlantic carrying some ex-tropical storms across the Atlantic making for much windier weather than September with some very wet periods too. Rainfall will likely end up above average in the North and West and near to or slightly above in the SE where some drier spells are likely. The month as a whole will most likely see temperatures close to average for the time of year with some colder interludes towards the North where wintry showers could make their presence felt by the end of the month along with frost at night. Sunshine amounts will more likely be close to or below average for the month as a whole, especially in the North.

November looks like the month will be characterized as rather cold but rather drier with a lot of cold, anticyclonic weather developing through the month, Mist and fog could well become a common issue night and morning persisting all day in places towards the end of the month. Frosts will become quite common too, especially away from the foggy areas. Some short milder interludes are likely too through the month when strong winds from the SW could bring areas of rain across the UK from the Atlantic. Temperatures over the month as a while will be below average with normal rainfall achieved from the short wet spells and sunshine rather lower than average. The incidence of snow is unlikely in November this year in the South but will fall on Northern high ground at times in showers following behind the short rainier spells.

In Summary this Autumn looks like a typical Autumn with highly seasonal weather from each month that we in the UK would expect. Some warm summery days are likely regularly through September with some Autumnal gales and heavy rain take hold in October before November becomes quieter again with fog and frost the main weather issues. Early snowfall looks like being reserved for the North this year, probably resulting from cold polar air masses behind cold fronts in late October and November but I don't see any particularly notable snowy events occurring over the UK this side of Winter starting in December.

TEMPERATURES NEAR TO AVERAGES OVERALL 

RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE 

SUNSHINE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 

FOG AND/OR FROST SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE

GALES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE OVERALL 

My next seasonal Prediction will be released in mid November or shortly afterwards.

Hi Gibby. I don't do seasonal forecasts myself (its beyond my knowledge) so I was wondering whether I may share your Autumn forecast to my followers on my Facebook page? Obviously, I would credit yourself for the forecast and post a link to your website.

www.solen.info/solar/index.html 

It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment.  Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least.  The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (in my opinion) to a reinvigorated jetstrean.

I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!

I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12?  Is this right? 

David

Northallerton

http://i.imgur.com/7D3EsJE.png 

Suspect those charts (or something very similar) will be turning up in my final autumn forecast later this morning.

The November chart would cause quite a lot of early depression on here, were it to verify.

www.solen.info/solar/index.html 

 

It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment.  Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least.  The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (in my opinion) to a reinvigorated jetstrean.

I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!

I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12?  Is this right? 

David

Northallerton

www.solen.info/solar/index.html 

 

It seems that solar activity is on the way up at the moment.  Given that scientists are predicting solar maximum later this year, I would not be surprised if we have a mobile, Atlantic-driven autumn and early winter at least.  The arctic is colder than normal currently and this will combine with increased solar activity (in my opinion) to a reinvigorated jetstrean.

I hope that we will have a cold Jan and Feb, as per CFS, but it would have to take a significant shift in circulation (and solar) patterns before we can start dreaming...!

I guess scientists are projecting the upcoming solar activity at its peak to be higher than in autumn/winter 2011-12?  Is this right? 

David

Northallerton

Hi all,

Here's my final autumn 2013 foreast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A very, very hard one to call this time.

Hi all,

Here's my final autumn 2013 foreast;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com

A very, very hard one to call this time.

Thanks for the video Gavin, very interesting. If september is going to be warmer than average, I would certainly welcome that, especially considering we have some making up to do after last summer. Also a cooler end to autumn and a potentially cold winter would be very welcome here. I'm going to follow this very closely indeed.

I'm wondering if we may see a stormy autumn.