Good morning. Here is the report of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday August 11th 2013. On Sunday mornings or evenings from now on I will give an even more comprehensive guide to the weather events shown by the models over the coming two weeks with a more detailed summarisation from me at the end of the report. Here is this weeks version.
All models show a similar pattern to carry us through the first week of the output. A showery NW flow will cover the UK for the next three days leading us up to midweek with most of the showers focused towards the North and later the East of the UK. Southern and Western parts will see few if any significant showers with the best of the sunny intervals closest to High pressure to the SW. Temperatures will be close to average in the SE but it may feel a little cool in the North. At the middle of the week a warm front follows a ridge across the UK with warmer and more humid weather following a band of light rain NE over the UK. This sets up a couple of warm and humid days on Wednesday and Thursday when it could become very warm in the SE in good sunny spells. By Friday a cold front will be moving East over Britain returning fresher air to most with a zone of potentially thundery showers in the SE ahead of the weakening front.
GFS then takes us into next weekend with further rain on a trough spilling NE across the North but very little of this reaches the South with a decent and fine weekend here. Some further thundery rain could move NE across the SE as another warm plume lies just the other side of the channel. A ridge builds elsewhere with warm and humid weather predominating for much of the rest of the week before a new Low brings fresher Atlantic winds across all areas briefly towards the weekend with a distinctive warm surge at the end of the run as High pressure builds across the North on its way to Scandinavia though some thundery showers could affect the SW.
The GFS Ensembles are looking OK this morning with the majority of members showing something warmer than average over the next few weeks. The operational was a warm outlier at times but it is not in isolation with some other members also showing something warm at times. Rainfall amounts are small in the South with even the North only showing average rainfall at times at most.
The Jet Stream today is predicted to continue it's Eastward motion across the UK this week before becoming more disorganized and disorientated in the second week with no definitive pattern shown.
UKMO today is setting the UK up for a wet and windy spell next weekend as Low pressure spins in from the West with a spell of wind and rain for all at some point through Saturday and Sunday no doubt followed by sunshine and showers. What happens beyond that we are not privvy to see but the weekend at least will feel cool and blustery if these synoptics evolve.
GEM this morning also shows Low pressure to the North though less evasive than UKMO. It would mean a spell of breezy and changeable weather with a spell of rain crossing East in a brisk Westerly flow followed by showers in the North. Towards the end of the run things settle down from the SW as High pressure moves slowly NE towards the UK from the SW with a cool NW flow ahead of it.
NAVGEM shows even less influence from Low pressure crossing East to the North next weekend with Southern areas staying largely dry and bright while the North sees associated wind and rain before things brighten up by Sunday with sun and showers.
ECM finally shows a breezy spell next weekend and into the following week as the same depression crosses east to the North. There would be a period of rain for all followed by suns and showers in the north. Pressure rises across the South and by the end of the run in 10 days the weather would be turning warm and humid again across the South with some very warm sunshine away from dull and drizzly western coasts and hills.
In Summary today the first week looks more or less set in stone now with some changeable conditions to be had but the majority of the time spent dry and bright, especially towards the SE where it looks like becoming very warm for a time later in the week. There does appear to be a general consensus of opinion that a spell of windy and wet weather is possible next weekend as Low pressure passes close too or over the North giving cool and blustery winds but there are then signs that an improvement to something more akin to Summer returns as High pressure is hinted at returning across our shores in one shape or form through Week 2 with GFS, GEM and ECM leaning towards this evolution. Whatever happens it remains to look like the weather will continue to be very reasonable for at least a lot of the time over the next few weeks which should keep holidaymakers, farmers and growers quite happy as there doesn't look like any long lasting hindrances to outdoor activities with temperatures very reasonable for the most part.
Martin G
Kilmersdon Radstock Bath Somerset