So the 1st half of the year has only got a handfull of years in the 20th/21st centurys which have been colder, impressive.

1979 6.20

1963 6.23

1986 6.50

1917 6.52

1929 6.55

1985 6.58

1955 6.63

1941 6.67

1942 and 2013 6.82

Another below average month in June - 6 in a row now for 2013. But July will well and truly break that trend.

First above average month in July and by a long way. But overall we are still well below average this year.

Looks set for a sub-10°C January to August mean temperature here, for the first time since I started recording the temperature data in 2003.

Looking at how it compares to other years, it's going to take a warm September to bring it in line with 2010 and 2012, my first and second coldest years recorded overall.

The cold first half of the year is gradually being redressed in the second half. Will September continue the trend?

Using my calculations for September the annual CET stands at 9.95C as at the 25th. The forecast suggests we will finally breach the 10C mark on the 29th of this month.

This will be the latest date in the year which 10C has been reached since 1987.

In 1996 we reached 10C on the 27th of September.

In 1987 10C was never reached. The highest figure was 9.75C on 7 October.

After a very average month we remain about 0.5C below the 1971-2000 mean

Looks like October (and the early signs for November) could alter the look of the graph drastically towards the end of the year.

After a very warm October we are now running only 0.26C below the 1971-2000 mean

After a number of months where the CET has been close to or well above average we returned to a well below average month in November.

The annual CET has now dipped below 10C and stands at 9.91C.

If December is average and comes in at 5.1C the annual CET will finish at 9.46C.

Looking at the competition predictions Taylor 1740 has 9.49C so is in with a good chance as are Deep Powder (9.52C) and schmee (9.55C). Nobody else is close.

The next lowest prediction is Ally Pally Snowman at 8.99C. That figure is still possible but only if the December CET equals 2010 at -0.7C which is highly unlikely.

Here is a reminder of the predictions for 2013. Currently I expect the CET to finish around 9.6C so schmee looks likely to be the closest.

The 2013 CET finished at 9.61C so as expected schmee wins the competition this year with the closest prediction. Congratulations. Caz and Deep Powder were tied in second place.

We are only a quarter away through the year and we already up to 45 provisionally for 2013 Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878 1878: 55 1879: 90 1880: 55 1881: 64 1882: 21 1883: 42 1884: 22 1885: 53 1886: 70 1887: 83 1888: 80 1889: 54 1890: 64 1891: 73 1892: 79 1893: 41 1894: 30 1895: 75 1896: 41 1897: 28 1898: 31 1899: 52 1900: 37 1901: 61 1902: 43 1903: 29 1904: 48 1905: 38 1906: 47 1907: 42 1908: 44 1909: 74 1910: 42 1911: 29 1912: 26 1913: 23 1914: 36 1915: 48 1916: 53 1917: 90 1918: 33 1919: 63 1920: 28 1921: 28 1922: 43 1923: 41 1924: 53 1925: 48 1926: 27 1927: 39 1928: 29 1929: 71 1930: 38 1931: 57 1932: 40 1933: 63 1934: 44 1935: 39 1936: 50 1937: 46 1938: 22 1939: 26 1940: 66 1941: 59 1942: 63 1943: 38 1944: 43 1945: 40 1946: 54 1947: 73 1948: 32 1949: 30 1950: 56 1951: 35 1952: 65 1953: 40 1954: 35 1955: 73 1956: 62 1957: 27 1958: 52 1959: 39 1960: 40 1961: 32 1962: 61 1963: 78 1964: 51 1965: 55 1966: 28 1967: 33 1968: 57 1969: 65 1970: 57 1971: 31 1972: 27 1973: 45 1974: 11 1975: 33 1976: 51 1977: 35 1978: 50 1979: 70 1980: 37 1981: 54 1982: 36 1983: 39 1984: 36 1985: 61 1986: 48 1987: 60 1988: 26 1989: 25 1990: 24 1991: 50 1992: 39 1993: 35 1994: 24 1995: 44 1996: 64 1997: 34 1998: 26 1999: 23 2000: 21 2001: 55 2002: 14 2003: 55 2004: 36 2005: 41 2006: 34 2007: 31 2008: 40 2009: 45 2010: 78 2011: 24 2012: 38 2013: 45 up to 30th March That list but only those years with 45 or greater Number of days where the CET minimum was 0C or less since 1878 1878: 55 1879: 90 1880: 55 1881: 64 1885: 53 1886: 70 1887: 83 1888: 80 1889: 54 1890: 64 1891: 73 1892: 79 1895: 75 1899: 52 1901: 61 1904: 48 1906: 47 1909: 74 1915: 48 1916: 53 1917: 90 1919: 63 1924: 53 1925: 48 1929: 71 1931: 57 1933: 63 1936: 50 1937: 46 1940: 66 1941: 59 1942: 63 1946: 54 1947: 73 1950: 56 1952: 65 1955: 73 1956: 62 1958: 52 1962: 61 1963: 78 1964: 51 1965: 55 1968: 57 1969: 65 1970: 57 1973: 45 1976: 51 1978: 50 1979: 70 1981: 54 1985: 61 1986: 48 1987: 60 1991: 50 1996: 64 2001: 55 2003: 55 2009: 45 2010: 78 2013: 45 up to 30th March

Interesting that 1917 and 1879 were worse than 1963, 2010 or 1947.

I really don't have a clue

The Met Office are predicting that 2013 will be the warmest year globally since records began:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast

...but we all know how little that tends to mean for the UK, aside from increased moisture levels!

I'm anticipating some cold weather for the second half of Jan and perhaps through a large part of February, so a cold start to rise from - but then spring 2013 could be dry and warm or cold and wet or any combination of those as far as I'm concerned!

As for the summer, could we really see yet another cool one? Unfortunately it does not come down to 'balancing' but rather the state of countless variables, some of which seem to be heavily favouring particular states of late - solar activity low, ENSO towards La Nina, Arctic Sea ice low, and so on.

The autumn and winter 2013... why even bother

 

So all I can do is throw out a number and cross my fingers I'll go for 9.77°C please.

Impressed