It will be interesting to see how July actually pans out - the top two warmest July months are featured in the analogues as are a couple of stinkers. The ratio is about 3 to 1 in favour of warm/hot.

Interesting (with hindsight!)

So why were so many people saying that pattern matching suggested a very poor summer?

Perhaps, if nouska is correct about the analogues, there is something to it?

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I am wondering if this is going to be a one trick summer. One very good summer month but the other two nothing to write home about. 1852, 1858 and 1901 were such summers. 1999 was another although we did get some summery weather during September.

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I am wondering if this is going to be a one trick summer. One very good summer month but the other two nothing to write home about. 1852, 1858 and 1901 were such summers. 1999 was another although we did get some summery weather during September.

Pretty good trick if it is!

June was a fairly decent month, no significant heat but some warm days and plenty of sunshine. Rainfall around average.

July a very warm and at times hot month. Rainfall currently way below.

August I think will be more changeable but I don't see it being a cold month... I have a huntch that August will be more plumey in nature 😉

June was a fairly decent month, no significant heat but some warm days and plenty of sunshine. Rainfall around average.

July a very warm and at times hot month. Rainfall currently way below.

August I think will be more changeable but I don't see it being a cold month... I have a huntch that August will be more plumey in nature ;)

June was pretty dry for most

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2013/6/2013_6_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif 

June was a fairly decent month, no significant heat but some warm days and plenty of sunshine. Rainfall around average.

July a very warm and at times hot month. Rainfall currently way below.

August I think will be more changeable but I don't see it being a cold month... I have a huntch that August will be more plumey in nature ;)

June was pretty dry for most

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2013/6/2013_6_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif 

I hadn't realised it was that dry :)

I just seem to remember a lot of rain falling when I was up in Newcastle towards end of the June - easily had an inch of rain fall in one day from constant downpours and storms.

Down back home in portsmouth we had around 32mm. Over half of that fell on the morning 7th June from a thunderstorm.

But at this time of year I've always thought it was normal to get most of the months rain from showers & storms rather then constant depressions and frontal systems of some recent summers.

^^ sure you're not thinking of the storms of June 2012? 😛

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^^ sure you're not thinking of the storms of June 2012? :-P

Positive... Even the athletics that where being held at the time in Gateshead and broadcasted on the bbc where effected.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/98462-23rd-june-2013-manston-199c/ 

It's the only copy I could find of the UK extremes ending 23 June.

Albemarle is the nearest to Newcastle - 20mm that day.

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad.

But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't.

There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

 

 

[sn_bsmil]

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You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad. But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't. There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

[sn_bsmil]

 

You love winding me up on this Matty.

I've just found what I wrote on April 12th.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&run=10

At the time of posting this link, all three summer months are shown to be 1-6°C warmer than average at 2m (the +6 anomaly is across Shetland...).

I can't recall seeing that sort of thing in the run up to last summer - CFS was fairly persistent in showing average conditions at best, with high latitude blocking in abundance. Currently it goes with mid-latitude heights and it has done for some time now.

I really hope it's on to something!

Probably a decent call when all said and done

Original post - 14th April

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&run=10

At the time of posting this link, all three summer months are shown to be 1-6°C warmer than average at 2m (the +6 anomaly is across Shetland...).

I can't recall seeing that sort of thing in the run up to last summer - CFS was fairly persistent in showing average conditions at best, with high latitude blocking in abundance. Currently it goes with mid-latitude heights and it has done for some time now.

I really hope it's on to something!

Probably a decent call when all said and done

Original post - 14th April

Yes - I'm being increasingly impressed by this model as time goes on. Coming up is what seems to be it's weakest season - autumn - so it'll be interesting to see how well it fares.

In the end it seems to have just been a bit too progressive with the summer pattern, hence it predicted June to be warmer than average rather than cooler.

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Summers in order with the best at the top and the worst at the bottom
1976 301
1995 298
1983 278
1955 277
1911 274
1984 271
1959 269
1975 268
1949 267
1989 262
2013 259 up to 26th August
1947 255
1933 251
1901 249
1921 249
2003 247
1925 246
2006 246
1996 245
1935 243
1994 240
1934 238
1940 238
1941 236
1970 235
1969 234
1973 234
1999 234
1997 232
1990 229
1917 228
1926 227
2005 224
1905 223
1932 223
1945 223
1967 223
1977 223
1914 222
1992 222
1908 220
1960 217
1950 216
1957 216
1968 215
1906 214
1942 214
1937 213
1939 213
1904 212
1929 211
2001 211
1903 209
1943 209
1991 207
1913 205
1971 205
1919 203
1961 203
1982 203
1951 201
1918 200
1944 200
2002 200
1930 199
1974 199
1979 199
1952 198
2000 198
1928 197
1962 197
1964 197
2004 197
1915 196
1981 196
1902 195
1963 194
1993 194
2009 194
1953 193
1966 192
1998 192
1988 191
2010 191
1910 190
1936 190
1965 189
1986 189
1916 188
1972 185
1958 184
1985 180
2011 179
1922 178
1938 177
1948 176
1927 175
1920 174
1923 174
2007 174
1931 173
1978 173
1980 173
1909 171
1946 170
1987 169
2008 168
2012 164
1924 158
1912 156
1956 155
1907 147
1954 143

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One of the key features of summer 2013 seems to have been the mlarrge amount of sunshine.How does 2013 compare with other sunny summers?

2013 has clearly been a good summer, but I was still surprised to see it higher than 2003 & 2006 on Kevin's Manchester summer index. My perception of summer 2013 has been a low number of rain days.

2013 has clearly been a good summer, but I was still surprised to see it higher than 2003 & 2006 on Kevin's Manchester summer index. My perception of summer 2013 has been a low number of rain days.

Yes, I would agree with that John. Certainly a much drier summer this year but not in the same league as the like of 1995 for sunny weather. I think that in my area, 2003 and 2006 had more sunny days throughtout the three summer months than was the case this year.

Going to lock this thread shortly; thanks for all your comments in here over the last few months.

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