I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would. yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

😂 sorry Gav, but you, like everyone else, hasn't got a clue what this summer will bring. Not even the experts know.

Sorry Matty - I've just this second stumbled onto this.

Get ready for a typically damp British summer as forecasters warn jet stream plunge could lead to unsettled wet weather into August

Last two weeks of hot, clear days have been replaced by erratic conditionsRain and winds of up to 40mph set to hit the coast over next few days It is being caused by a south shifting jet stream - fast flowing air currents Jet stream sitting further south than is normal for this time of yearIt means the UK is experiencing unsettled and fast moving weather

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2340132/Get-ready-typically-damp-British-summer-forecasters-warn-jet-stream-plunge-lead-unsettled-wet-weather-August.html

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad.

But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't.

There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad.
But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't.
There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad. But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't. There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

No there aren't. As for citing the Daily Fail?....😂 Gavin, seasonal forecasting is impossible. It's impossible! No person or organisation has mastered it or anything close. It's fine having a guess - pointless as well IMO, but each to their own - but to present your reasoning as fact or some sort of grasp of it is just plain inaccurate at best.

In some ways I think we're talking a bit on cross purposes. I know what you mean - and I know what I mean.

In fact there are some people on this forum who are far better at it than any of those we see in the newspapers.

Look what happened in 2009 when the Met Office said we would get a BBQ summer - and then look what happened there.

I don't claim to be the best - far from it - but I do know from my 40 years or so of observations where I am coming from. 

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad. But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't. There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

No there aren't. As for citing the Daily Fail?....😂 Gavin, seasonal forecasting is impossible. It's impossible! No person or organisation has mastered it or anything close. It's fine having a guess - pointless as well IMO, but each to their own - but to present your reasoning as fact or some sort of grasp of it is just plain inaccurate at best.

In some ways I think we're talking a bit on cross purposes. I know what you mean - and I know what I mean.

In fact there are some people on this forum who are far better at it than any of those we see in the newspapers.

Look what happened in 2009 when the Met Office said we would get a BBQ summer - and then look what happened there.

I don't claim to be the best - far from it - but I do know from my 40 years or so of observations where I am coming from. 

 

Wrt the bit I've highlighted, that only serves to back up Matty's point about seasonal forecasting being well nigh impossible.

It can go the other way as well, though. I seem to recall that before our last decent summer back in 2006, Brian's forecast for that summer was for a fairly mediocre one. It turned out to be our last good one. It's educated guesswork at best in my view.

You're using the Daily Mail as your source?

Over things like this - It's no worse than any other paper. Having said that one paper I would not quote though is the Daily Express - that really is bad. But leaving that all aside - I see no reason to think that this is going to be a decent summer - I really don't. There are no signs there at all on the synoptics or records to show that this will be any more than a poor to mediocre summer.

No there aren't. As for citing the Daily Fail?....😂 Gavin, seasonal forecasting is impossible. It's impossible! No person or organisation has mastered it or anything close. It's fine having a guess - pointless as well IMO, but each to their own - but to present your reasoning as fact or some sort of grasp of it is just plain inaccurate at best.

In some ways I think we're talking a bit on cross purposes. I know what you mean - and I know what I mean.

In fact there are some people on this forum who are far better at it than any of those we see in the newspapers.

Look what happened in 2009 when the Met Office said we would get a BBQ summer - and then look what happened there.

I don't claim to be the best - far from it - but I do know from my 40 years or so of observations where I am coming from. 

 

So far this summer it's been great up here....0mm of rain and plenty of sunshine, not hot either so in my mind that's perfect.

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would. yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

😂 sorry Gav, but you, like everyone else, hasn't got a clue what this summer will bring. Not even the experts know.

Sorry Matty - I've just this second stumbled onto this.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Get ready for a typically damp British summer as forecasters warn jet stream plunge could lead to unsettled wet weather into August
Last two weeks of hot, clear days have been replaced by erratic conditionsRain and winds of up to 40mph set to hit the coast over next few days It is being caused by a south shifting jet stream - fast flowing air currents Jet stream sitting further south than is normal for this time of yearIt means the UK is experiencing unsettled and fast moving weather


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2340132/Get-ready-typically-damp-British-summer-forecasters-warn-jet-stream-plunge-lead-unsettled-wet-weather-August.html 

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.

yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

 

The next couple of weeks only takes us towards the end of June. We've then still got all of July and August to go after that. How anyone claim to know for a fact at the moment whether the next two months will be good, bad or indifferent is beyond me.

I remember that the summer of 1990 started with a poor June, and there were quite possibly a number of people at that time who though that July and August that year would also be poor just becuase June wasn't good. But July and August were better- FAR better.

I've got a feeling this summer will be drier than any we've seen in the past 6 summers - at least in the west.

In fact, I think it'll be a fair summer. Not great, and I don't think there'll be any sustained heatwaves, but not as bad in terms of rain days as any in the 2007-2012 period. That in itself will make it feel like a decent one.

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would. yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

😂 sorry Gav, but you, like everyone else, hasn't got a clue what this summer will bring. Not even the experts know.

Sorry Matty - I've just this second stumbled onto this.

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Get ready for a typically damp British summer as forecasters warn jet stream plunge could lead to unsettled wet weather into August Last two weeks of hot, clear days have been replaced by erratic conditionsRain and winds of up to 40mph set to hit the coast over next few days It is being caused by a south shifting jet stream - fast flowing air currents Jet stream sitting further south than is normal for this time of yearIt means the UK is experiencing unsettled and fast moving weather http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2340132/Get-ready-typically-damp-British-summer-forecasters-warn-jet-stream-plunge-lead-unsettled-wet-weather-August.html 

And you are now taking everything the Mail says as Gospel? Only a few weeks ago you were quoting press articles saying the weather would be awful straight through from May to Wimbledon. Nearly sidestepping what was a very pleasant week of summer for most. It's cooler than average but thus far has been much drier and much sunnier. That is not exactly how you envisaged it.

/quote]

No I am not saying the Mail is gospel - far from it - Mind you the same information is in other papers as well.

 

 

---

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

I've got a feeling this summer will be drier than any we've seen in the past 6 summers - at least in the west.

In fact, I think it'll be a fair summer. Not great, and I don't think there'll be any sustained heatwaves, but not as bad in terms of rain days as any in the 2007-2012 period. That in itself will make it feel like a decent one.

 

 

If thats the case - then you guys in the West of the country will be doing OK. I had about 3 days of very nice sunshine - but the past 4 days has delivered almost non stop grey and overcast skies - all of which contribute to the concept of a poor summer.

The big saving grace has been the lack of rain.

Anyway - I won't say much else on the subject of how good the summer is until we have June out of the way.

If this summer does turn out to be a good one - I am quite happy to drink a pint of bad lager as a punishment.

Mind you the same information is in other papers as well.

Indeed as you quoted back in May the Express was on the case. They were using one of their top weather sources. 

Here's what he said:

"The beginning of June is looking dire, wet and miserable and everything points towards no major change from then on.” 

And he was bang on. Er. No Hang about. That turns out to have been... complete barking nonsense!

Philip Eden had the wet and miserable start to June... as er... 5% rain and 153% sunshine. Oh. And some of the most pleasant weather in some time with maximums regularly above average for the time of year (cold at night I'l give you, but that's not what he said).

That's a real surprise because surely the Express would be using a reputable source. Oh! Gosh. Turns out it was someone called Jonathan Powell. Hmm. Name rings a bell for some reason...

Mind you the same information is in other papers as well.

Indeed as you quoted back in May the Express was on the case. They were using one of their top weather sources. 

Here's what he said:

"The beginning of June is looking dire, wet and miserable and everything points towards no major change from then on.” 

And he was bang on. Er. No Hang about. That turns out to have been... complete barking nonsense!

Philip Eden had the wet and miserable start to June... as er... 5% rain and 153% sunshine. Oh. And some of the most pleasant weather in some time with maximums regularly above average for the time of year (cold at night I'l give you, but that's not what he said).

That's a real surprise because surely the Express would be using a reputable source. Oh! Gosh. Turns out it was someone called Jonathan Powell. Hmm. Name rings a bell for some reason...

The express is one papers you cannot rely on - It's headings are dreadful. I can't recall the last time I ever read that paper in detail.

I have never on here quoted a link from the Express.

Apologies. It was the Telegraph.

"A report in todays Telegraph suggested that from next weekend onwards we were going to get 6 weeks of gunk running up to Wimbledon."

That was also wrong.

Mind you the same information is in other papers as well.

Indeed as you quoted back in May the Express was on the case. They were using one of their top weather sources.
Here's what he said:
"The beginning of June is looking dire, wet and miserable and everything points towards no major change from then on.”
And he was bang on. Er. No Hang about. That turns out to have been... complete barking nonsense!
Philip Eden had the wet and miserable start to June... as er... 5% rain and 153% sunshine. Oh. And some of the most pleasant weather in some time with maximums regularly above average for the time of year (cold at night I'l give you, but that's not what he said).
That's a real surprise because surely the Express would be using a reputable source. Oh! Gosh. Turns out it was someone called Jonathan Powell. Hmm. Name rings a bell for some reason...

The express is one papers you cannot rely on - It's headings are dreadful. I can't recall the last time I ever read that paper in detail.
I have never on here quoted a link from the Express.

Mind you the same information is in other papers as well.

Indeed as you quoted back in May the Express was on the case. They were using one of their top weather sources.
Here's what he said:
"The beginning of June is looking dire, wet and miserable and everything points towards no major change from then on.”
And he was bang on. Er. No Hang about. That turns out to have been... complete barking nonsense!
Philip Eden had the wet and miserable start to June... as er... 5% rain and 153% sunshine. Oh. And some of the most pleasant weather in some time with maximums regularly above average for the time of year (cold at night I'l give you, but that's not what he said).
That's a real surprise because surely the Express would be using a reputable source. Oh! Gosh. Turns out it was someone called Jonathan Powell. Hmm. Name rings a bell for some reason...

The express is one papers you cannot rely on - It's headings are dreadful. I can't recall the last time I ever read that paper in detail.
I have never on here quoted a link from the Express.

But the Daily Fail is ok? Come off it, Gav. It's the same rogue amateur sources they use to create headlines they think will sell papers. We don't need up go this deep though. I suspect you know it's balls. All you need to know is this:


Seasonal forecasting is impossible with any consistent accuracy to prove any method.


Nothing else matters. Seasonal forecasts are for novelty purposes only, although I've never understood why anyone away from the pros would make one. Some go into such detail about where a low pressure will be anchored two months out etc; absolutely pointless nonsense, but like I said earlier - each to their own, but don't think you won't be stamped on when you start claiming any sort of success or idea

Fair enough Matty - I know what you mean. The reason being over this is that the science is unreliable. In my case I have used a fair bit of pattern matching and we all know and I accept as well wrt that - that pattern matching has its problems.

The pattern we're in now has been so persistent that it hasn't been too difficult to be accurate - then again thats based on high probabilities rather than a reliable scientific analysis as well.

But leaving all that aside - there are some elements of the atmospheric circulation that all of us on here know a lot about - that much we do know. Some know much more than others.

Over the issue of that - I do wish more of it could be quantified and explained. 

Like Gavin, I use my long term experience of weather watching to form a view of what we may expect longer term so I would never claim it is anything more grand than a hunch.

We'll soon be a sixth of the way through the calender summer and whilst I am displeased with the conditions, the overall view as I expressed a while back is not too far out. Based on Winchesters stats, rainfall will be near average and temperatures cooler so far.

However, the continuing zonality and slightly displaced jet mean that rainfall may be going above average in the next fortnight.

Here's a projection for Summer 2013...it's going to be FECKING CRAP!! as was 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007!

Wasn't it 2006 that was the last half decent one?

I mean can any of you on here remember the last time we had a spell of proper decent summer weather last lasted more than ten days...no me neither!! Well apart from summer-like weather during spring!