Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... 😂

Of course the rainfall radar could be misleading. Yesterday showed an area of heavy rain over me , it looked by the echoes to belonger lasting than the 5 minutes suggested .

Less than 12 hours ago the forecasts were for a band of rain to struggle to get into southwest England let alone South Wales. 10am and its already there and across most of the southwest. Tell me again about the merits of long range forecasting... 😂

Of course the rainfall radar could be misleading. Yesterday showed an area of heavy rain over me , it looked by the echoes to belonger lasting than the 5 minutes suggested .

It's not though. It's raining in Cardiff. It's raining here too.

Sorry I was talking IMBY

Bone dry here , even the will it rain radar has ran for me ..................nothing yet

I'm starting to detect some hope. I really am - and I hope I'm not being decieved.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

Well look at this... +ve anomaly right over the UK for July. It's not very strong though, so we're not talking about a spectacularly fine month here - but there appears to be some scope for the driest and perhaps warmest July since 2006, which may not be saying much but it would make for a nice change.

Apparently the latest EC-32day run builds heights more to our NE but keeps them close enough to deliver a potentially very warm setup at least for a time. There's not much sign of that on the CFS anomaly chart, but with neutral anomalies all around the UK the signal could be interpreted as one for high pressure shifting about between our W/SW and NE/E, but usually staying close enough to keep the troughs from having too much influence.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

For August, the signal has shifted a long way in the past few weeks, from heights to our NE to heights to our NW. At this point in time, a west-based -ve NAO is signalled for, which translates to changeable westerlies for the UK but also transitory ridges through Europe, providing brief hotter spells there, but that's not to say that they would reach the UK.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

Well look at this... +ve anomaly right over the UK for July. It's not very strong though, so we're not talking about a spectacularly fine month here - but there appears to be some scope for the driest and perhaps warmest July since 2006, which may not be saying much but it would make for a nice change.

Apparently the latest EC-32day run builds heights more to our NE but keeps them close enough to deliver a potentially very warm setup at least for a time. There's not much sign of that on the CFS anomaly chart, but with neutral anomalies all around the UK the signal could be interpreted as one for high pressure shifting about between our W/SW and NE/E, but usually staying close enough to keep the troughs from having too much influence.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

For August, the signal has shifted a long way in the past few weeks, from heights to our NE to heights to our NW. At this point in time, a west-based -ve NAO is signalled for, which translates to changeable westerlies for the UK but also transitory ridges through Europe, providing brief hotter spells there, but that's not to say that they would reach the UK.

Warmer than 2010? Given the still low SSTs that would be quite an achievement for 'middling' synoptics wouldn't it?

Warmer than 2010? Given the still low SSTs that would be quite an achievement for 'middling' synoptics wouldn't it?

The SSTs are not really all that far from average now:

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2

...but yes, the area of below average values is extensive to the SW so westerly regimes could end up a little fresher than normal, as could easterlies to a lesser extent.

On the other hand, if high pressure sits across the UK and surrounding areas, the strong summer sun can warm things up substantially provided the air temperature isn't too low. The near-shore +ve SST anomalies on that chart are testiment to that.

It would be quite an achievement even so - hence I said 'perhaps'

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

Well look at this... +ve anomaly right over the UK for July. It's not very strong though, so we're not talking about a spectacularly fine month here - but there appears to be some scope for the driest and perhaps warmest July since 2006, which may not be saying much but it would make for a nice change.

Apparently the latest EC-32day run builds heights more to our NE but keeps them close enough to deliver a potentially very warm setup at least for a time. There's not much sign of that on the CFS anomaly chart, but with neutral anomalies all around the UK the signal could be interpreted as one for high pressure shifting about between our W/SW and NE/E, but usually staying close enough to keep the troughs from having too much influence.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

For August, the signal has shifted a long way in the past few weeks, from heights to our NE to heights to our NW. At this point in time, a west-based -ve NAO is signalled for, which translates to changeable westerlies for the UK but also transitory ridges through Europe, providing brief hotter spells there, but that's not to say that they would reach the UK.

I would be delighted if that came off for the purpose of my summer forecast which I said for my area would see a good proportion of the month as hot and sunny.  I keep looking back and thinking "what the heck was I thinking"?!

More importantly though I would like to say that I really do appreciate your analysis of these models as it is helping me to understand further.  Much appreciated and always gets me thinking.

 

I would be delighted if that came off for the purpose of my summer forecast which I said for my area would see a good proportion of the month as hot and sunny.  I keep looking back and thinking "what the heck was I thinking"?!

 

More importantly though I would like to say that I really do appreciate your analysis of these models as it is helping me to understand further.  Much appreciated and always gets me thinking.

Thanks, it's nice to know that my posts make an impact

If we can get light winds and sunshine in July, it should feel great, so here's hoping!

First time in months where the ECM 32 day ensemble has not shown below average T2 mean throughout the forecast period. Potentially a nice July - analogues continue to support this.

http://www.weatherxchange.com/unzippedmonth/Coleshill_monthts_Tmean_24062013_D+XX.png

PS. Looking a lot better for the old home city.

http://www.weatherxchange.com/unzippedmonth/AberdeenDyce_monthts_Tmax_24062013_D+XX.png

In terms of seasonal pattern matching and following winters the Summer indicators are compared to spring, rather infrequent.

Taking the 1873-2012  period, only 1 in 4 years  provided indicators giving a 67% or above probability of either a warm or cold outcome.

The indicator types are;

Very Warm Dry 8 years 87% folowed by a warmer than average winter.

Cold Wet  20 years  75% followed by a warmer than average winter.

Very Cold,Very Wet 67% followed by a colder than average winter.

At present we have a strong  signal from Spring.The season was Very Cold and Dry -around 80% of such years were followed by below average winters.

Great to see the Manchester summer index is now out of the grotty category now on 198.

Great to see the Manchester summer index is now out of the grotty category now on 198.

Any chance you might now admit that the overwhelming confidence that you expressed in Spring and early Summer that this summer would be cold, wet/dry and grotty might have been a little bit overdone? 

"I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged."

Great to see the Manchester summer index is now out of the grotty category now on 198.

Any chance you might now admit that the overwhelming confidence that you expressed in Spring and early Summer that this summer would be cold, wet/dry and grotty might have been a little bit overdone? 

"I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged."

I am more than happy to say plenty on this a bit later on.

I've got a feeling this summer will be drier than any we've seen in the past 6 summers - at least in the west.

In fact, I think it'll be a fair summer. Not great, and I don't think there'll be any sustained heatwaves, but not as bad in terms of rain days as any in the 2007-2012 period. That in itself will make it feel like a decent one.

 

Me underplaying it a month ago  

Still, I was a rare voice of optimism in a sea of pessimism 

Great to see the Manchester summer index is now out of the grotty category now on 198.

Any chance you might now admit that the overwhelming confidence that you expressed in Spring and early Summer that this summer would be cold, wet/dry and grotty might have been a little bit overdone? 

"I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged."

I am more than happy to say plenty on this a bit later on.

Don't worry Gavin. I can recall a former member of this forum predicting in late 2008 that the 2008/09 winter would be one of the mildest on record and also predicted January 2009 to be the mildest January on record. In reality, ot gave parts of southern England their heaviest snowfalls and coldest winter weather for almost 16 years,

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.

yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

 

It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.

 

For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.

May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.

I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.

 

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.

yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

 

It hasn't though, has it? You doomcasted a wet May/early June and it's been bone dry. We have just come out of a 10-11 day period of abundant sunshine. So in fact your forecasts have been wildly wrong.

 

For goodness sakes - stop trying to make out we're getting a damned heatwave.

May in most cases and especially in the eastern part of the country was dull and miserable. Out of the so called 10 to 11 day period of abundant sunshine - I got just 4 days of decent sunshine out of that followed by 4 consecutive overcast days. Since then the weather has returned to the sort of stuff we have seen a great deal of for most of the past 6 summers going back to 2007.

I said ages ago that this summer will come into the poor category and nothing has made me change that.

 

I knew I'd get some stick from this - all I can say is this.

I'll say more in a couple of weeks.

I had good reasons for saying what I said - but as what has turned out has been more dramatic than anything I've known in 40 years of weather observation here in this country.

Don't worry, Gav If this is what happens when you make a wet, cool summer prediction, we'll be begging you for one every year