It's so difficult to put specifics on all the summer pressure projections, but look at this chart: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950802.gif  It would fit the forecasts with higher pressure to our NE and lower pressure over France and Spain. I'd take a recurring chart like this!

It's so difficult to put specifics on all the summer pressure projections, but look at this chart: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950802.gif  It would fit the forecasts with higher pressure to our NE and lower pressure over France and Spain. I'd take a recurring chart like this!

I think most of us would. That 1995 summer really was fantastic- couldn't have been any better save for the occasional brief unsettled interruption.

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ahhh summer 1995, long summer holidays between college and starting University, did some back packing around Europe, no responsibilities and the main priority getting a good seat in the beer garden and chasing scantily clad women   

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd1.gif

The latest CFS anomaly prediction for June. This sides more with this morning's ECM 00z run than the others, although it would be possible to achieve such overall anomalies if the higher heights to the NE fade away and then return not long later.

As for the next month...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd2.gif

Lets face it, July is going to have to be a properly decent month if CFS is to see good verification - the model has been predicting an extended Azores High (i.e. it builds into Europe in some shape or form) for months without much deviation at all. Of late, the anomalies over Scandinavia have shifted south - all the better for most of us, not sure about the far NW though.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbz700MonInd3.gif

August has been predicted to be something like this for some weeks now. The idea of the blocking moving up in to the Arctic, which is what CFS was showing back in early May, is still there, but with an increasingly strong anomaly being added over Scandinavia. Could the summer really feature heights across Scandinavia all the way through? That's like having a truly epic winter of almost relentless easterlies!

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My punt would be something along the lines of 1917 (which had a very cold spring of course)

The better half of the summer will be from mid May - early July. Then from mid July - late August I would expect it to be  wet and cool, just in time for the summer holidays in England. I think 1993 had a similar pattern also, cooled down by the time mid July was reached.

Then I would expect a warm sunny spell early September.

I think there will be a week long hot spell (temps over 30c in England) this summer, but it won't hang around.

Still happy with my punt on summer for the UK, I expected a warm settled start to summer and that the first half of summer would be the better half.

Happy to be wrong and for the UK to get a sun fest right through though,

Have been waiting for rainfall figures for May to get final classification of Spring 2013.The season in total is on the dry side largely as a result of the very dry April.So spring 2013 is classfied as Very Cold and Dry.

Thre were 12 such seasons beween 1873 and 2012.50% of the follwing summers were cod,50% warm so not munch of an indicator for summer.Of the follwing winters 75% were cold so a strong indicator for winter cold.

Going back to Summer the dry very cold spring doesn't give much help,but  I would come down on the colder than average summer which  the very Cold nature of Spring suggests without a precpitation signal. 

A table of the 12 very cold,dry winters and the follwing summers and winters is shown below.

	Very Cold,Dry   Springs and following Summers And Winters
	Spring		Summer		Winter
Year
1883	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	WARM	DRY
1887	V COLD	DRY	WARM	V DRY	V COLD	V DRY
1888	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	COLD	V DRY
1892	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	V COLD	DRY
1899	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	V DRY	COLD	V WET
1901	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	WET
1906	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	DRY
1917	V COLD	DRY	WARM	WET	WARM	V DRY
1922	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	V WARM	WET
1958	V COLD	DRY	COLD	V WET	COLD	DRY
1962	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	DRY	VCOLD	V DRY
1984	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	DRY	V COLD	VDRY

Have been waiting for rainfall figures for May to get final classification of Spring 2013.The season in total is on the dry side largely as a result of the very dry April.So spring 2013 is classfied as Very Cold and Dry.

Thre were 12 such seasons beween 1873 and 2012.50% of the follwing summers were cod,50% warm so not munch of an indicator for summer.Of the follwing winters 75% were cold so a strong indicator for winter cold.

Going back to Summer the dry very cold spring doesn't give much help,but  I would come down on the colder than average summer which  the very Cold nature of Spring suggests without a precpitation signal. 

A table of the 12 very cold,dry winters and the follwing summers and winters is shown below.

	Very Cold,Dry   Springs and following Summers And Winters
	Spring		Summer		Winter
Year
1883	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	WARM	DRY
1887	V COLD	DRY	WARM	V DRY	V COLD	V DRY
1888	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	COLD	V DRY
1892	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	V COLD	DRY
1899	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	V DRY	COLD	V WET
1901	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	WET
1906	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	DRY
1917	V COLD	DRY	WARM	WET	WARM	V DRY
1922	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	V WARM	WET
1958	V COLD	DRY	COLD	V WET	COLD	DRY
1962	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	DRY	VCOLD	V DRY
1984	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	DRY	V COLD	VDRY

 

Thanks for adding that angle of analysis roger63, this is an area of weather forecasting i'm interested in and i started a thread on it on here fairly recently. I'm glad to hear this Spring just gone suggests a cold winter to come, even though I suppose you could say that it is quite a primitive forecasting method. Out of interest, have you found summer & autumn to be indicators for the following winter in any way during your research? 

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Have been waiting for rainfall figures for May to get final classification of Spring 2013.The season in total is on the dry side largely as a result of the very dry April.So spring 2013 is classfied as Very Cold and Dry.

Thre were 12 such seasons beween 1873 and 2012.50% of the follwing summers were cod,50% warm so not munch of an indicator for summer.Of the follwing winters 75% were cold so a strong indicator for winter cold.

Going back to Summer the dry very cold spring doesn't give much help,but  I would come down on the colder than average summer which  the very Cold nature of Spring suggests without a precpitation signal. 

A table of the 12 very cold,dry winters and the follwing summers and winters is shown below.

	Very Cold,Dry   Springs and following Summers And Winters
	Spring		Summer		Winter
Year
1883	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	WARM	DRY
1887	V COLD	DRY	WARM	V DRY	V COLD	V DRY
1888	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	COLD	V DRY
1892	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	WET	V COLD	DRY
1899	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	V DRY	COLD	V WET
1901	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	WET
1906	V COLD	DRY	WARM	DRY	COLD	DRY
1917	V COLD	DRY	WARM	WET	WARM	V DRY
1922	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	V WET	V WARM	WET
1958	V COLD	DRY	COLD	V WET	COLD	DRY
1962	V COLD	DRY	V COLD	DRY	VCOLD	V DRY
1984	V COLD	DRY	V WARM	DRY	V COLD	VDRY

 

Thanks for adding that angle of analysis roger63, this is an area of weather forecasting i'm interested in and i started a thread on it on here fairly recently. I'm glad to hear this Spring just gone suggests a cold winter to come, even though I suppose you could say that it is quite a primitive forecasting method. Out of interest, have you found summer & autumn to be indicators for the following winter in any way during your research? 

Yes, I have looked at seasonal weather types for Spring, Summer and Autumn and then at the simple Cold/Warm winter split.Anything yielding a 67 % or higher proportion be it cold or warm  I take as significant indicator.Of course the problem is that certain  strong indicators only occur infrequently.However using indicators fvrom all three seasons  preceding winter gives significant indicators in 90% of years.There are of course years with multiple indicators, sometimes in conflict.By having simple rules on which indicator to take  I get to nearly 80% accuracy on hindsight winter forecasts of warm /cold.

I have said before and I still think that will be the case that this summer will come out in the grotty index. I think we'll end up between the summers of  2010 and 2011. It won't be anything like last year and even though this June will come out cool. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Manchester summer index with acknowledgements to Kevin Bradshaw.

 

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Actually you do shift around quite a bit in your predictions of gloom and doom.

Back in early May you were saying we were going to get wet and cold weather for summer "oh dear, so here we go again, for the seventh time in as many years" followed up by raging about a forecast of "gunk" all the way through to Wimbledon.

How's summer doing so far?

Er, 4% rain and 183% sunshine.

True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

It's one thing to be concerned, or have a "hunch" built around that concern that the weather over the next three months will be poor, quite another for that to be able to translate in any meaningful sort of prediction of what the weather will be like.

That anxiety has little impact on what the weather will turn out to be anymore than getting over excited about some of the recent fine weather would justify predicting that the weather would be fine for the rest of summer.

It's quite possible it could be either or both at different times.

As for getting stuck in patterns, as you know full well they frequently break and shift without much notice. Predictions of rainy weather running all the way from May to Wimbledon were quickly shown to be nonsense by the perfectly pleasant, sunny and frequently warm weather of the last week. Predictions of a long lasting drought last spring were made a mockery by the subsequent rain. Predictions of no more snow in the UK have been made to look daft in the last few years.

True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

It's one thing to be concerned, or have a "hunch" built around that concern that the weather over the next three months will be poor, quite another for that to be able to translate in any meaningful sort of prediction of what the weather will be like. That anxiety has little impact on what the weather will turn out to be anymore than getting over excited about some of the recent fine weather would justify predicting that the weather would be fine for the rest of summer. It's quite possible it could be either or both at different times. As for getting stuck in patterns, as you know full well they frequently break and shift without much notice. Predictions of rainy weather running all the way from May to Wimbledon were quickly shown to be nonsense by the perfectly pleasant, sunny and frequently warm weather of the last week. Predictions of a long lasting drought last spring were made a mockery by the subsequent rain. Predictions of no more snow in the UK have been made to look daft in the last few years.

Not forgetting either the Met Office's infamous "BBQ summer" prediction for the summer of 2009. To be fair to them, the early part of that summer wasn't too bad and we did have a very warm/hot spell in late June and early July. After that though, it went downhill rapidly which left the MO with rather a lot of explaining to do.

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True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

It's one thing to be concerned, or have a "hunch" built around that concern that the weather over the next three months will be poor, quite another for that to be able to translate in any meaningful sort of prediction of what the weather will be like. That anxiety has little impact on what the weather will turn out to be anymore than getting over excited about some of the recent fine weather would justify predicting that the weather would be fine for the rest of summer. It's quite possible it could be either or both at different times. As for getting stuck in patterns, as you know full well they frequently break and shift without much notice. Predictions of rainy weather running all the way from May to Wimbledon were quickly shown to be nonsense by the perfectly pleasant, sunny and frequently warm weather of the last week. Predictions of a long lasting drought last spring were made a mockery by the subsequent rain. Predictions of no more snow in the UK have been made to look daft in the last few years.

 

By that logic, we might as well pack up, abandon weather forums and just look out the window.

We have a broad spectrum of weather preferences/knowledge and personas, some optimists, some more pessimistic; it is what makes the weather forum experience a varied and interesting one.

I really do not want to see every post examined, critiqued and caveated - we can make our own minds up - just as we can speculate on what may or not may be.

True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

It's one thing to be concerned, or have a "hunch" built around that concern that the weather over the next three months will be poor, quite another for that to be able to translate in any meaningful sort of prediction of what the weather will be like. That anxiety has little impact on what the weather will turn out to be anymore than getting over excited about some of the recent fine weather would justify predicting that the weather would be fine for the rest of summer. It's quite possible it could be either or both at different times. As for getting stuck in patterns, as you know full well they frequently break and shift without much notice. Predictions of rainy weather running all the way from May to Wimbledon were quickly shown to be nonsense by the perfectly pleasant, sunny and frequently warm weather of the last week. Predictions of a long lasting drought last spring were made a mockery by the subsequent rain. Predictions of no more snow in the UK have been made to look daft in the last few years.

By that logic, we might as well pack up, abandon weather forums and just look out the window.
We have a broad spectrum of weather preferences/knowledge and personas, some optimists, some more pessimistic; it is what makes the weather forum experience a varied and interesting one.
I really do not want to see every post examined, critiqued and caveated - we can make our own minds up - just as we can speculate on what may or not may be.

Odd thing to say on a forum as you comment on my post?

Certainly not saying there is no point in weather forecasting, simply pointing out the pretty fundamental limitations to anything much beyond a week.

True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

Thats exactly how things have been for me. I've had a couple of days of very nice sunshine - but it has been very cool and I have had a string of night time minimums well into single figures as low as 5C on a number of occasions.

I've always said that this summer - if it wasn't wet it would be very cool and its turning out like that.

I have a feeling that I may not see 27C at all this year - that would be almost unheard of in the past.

But at least if its not raining all the time - that is not overly bad.

But this summer will come into the poor sector due to low temperatures.

 

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True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

Thats exactly how things have been for me. I've had a couple of days of very nice sunshine - but it has been very cool and I have had a string of night time minimums well into single figures as low as 5C on a number of occasions.

I've always said that this summer - if it wasn't wet it would be very cool and its turning out like that.

I have a feeling that I may not see 27C at all this year - that would be almost unheard of in the past.

But at least if its not raining all the time - that is not overly bad.

But this summer will come into the poor sector due to low temperatures.

 

I'm loving the current cool nights - perfect for sleeping. When the suns been out it's been lovely, albeit a little too breezy some days from a cycling point of view.

Cool but sunny would be an amazing summer, doubt I'll be that lucky though

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True Steam Fog BUT in my humble opinion exceptionally cool in the main over the last few months...... I accept recently The Sun has started to make an appearance but the incessant cool E/NE wind has put a damper on things for us here in the SE and I am concerned despite the progged change in the weather this set up will continue?

Thats exactly how things have been for me. I've had a couple of days of very nice sunshine - but it has been very cool and I have had a string of night time minimums well into single figures as low as 5C on a number of occasions.
I've always said that this summer - if it wasn't wet it would be very cool and its turning out like that.
I have a feeling that I may not see 27C at all this year - that would be almost unheard of in the past.
But at least if its not raining all the time - that is not overly bad.
But this summer will come into the poor sector due to low temperatures.

Or

But this summer [may] come into the poor sector [?] due to low temperatures [if they persist, but it's a bit early to be sure and we'll have a clearer idea later in the season].

I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.

yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

 

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I have to say this summer is now turning out exactly how I envisaged it would.
yes I know we have quite a few weeks left and we're barely midway through June - but with the outlook for the next couple of weeks hardly inspiring - this is no more than I expected.

😂 sorry Gav, but you, like everyone else, hasn't got a clue what this summer will bring. Not even the experts know.

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