my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.

Corrected for Marcus

lol, and add snow in June for YD!

I think we'll see the jetstream further north this year and a more typical summer, some wetter/cooler spells but also a few heatwaves

The last several years have been typical summers for the UK, albeit a couple of them were on the wet side. As Darren says, the shock on here will be acute if we actually do get a genuine cold summer. With temperatures now returning close to 1961-90 values, it's only a matter of time before the die rolls up such a summer

 

1975 had snow in June...

 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.

Corrected for Marcus

Thanking you Dave

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Imby it's going to be a great summer with more then one day of +30C heat

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&run=10

At the time of posting this link, all three summer months are shown to be 1-6°C warmer than average at 2m (the +6 anomaly is across Shetland...).

I can't recall seeing that sort of thing in the run up to last summer - CFS was fairly persistent in showing average conditions at best, with high latitude blocking in abundance. Currently it goes with mid-latitude heights and it has done for some time now.

I really hope it's on to something!

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfsme_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&run=10

At the time of posting this link, all three summer months are shown to be 1-6°C warmer than average at 2m (the +6 anomaly is across Shetland...).

I can't recall seeing that sort of thing in the run up to last summer - CFS was fairly persistent in showing average conditions at best, with high latitude blocking in abundance. Currently it goes with mid-latitude heights and it has done for some time now.

I really hope it's on to something!

Fingers crossed. What I'm hoping is that this year will follow both 2003 and 1983  as far as being another year ending in "3" that gave us a good summer. 1993 wasn't wonderful, but we did manager some half-decent weather at times that summer and was nowhere near as wet as some more recent ones.

July 1983 I believe was an absolute belter and could easily have come in the period from 1989 to 2006. Also, that came after a run of not so great summers.

---

I'd be surprised to see another cold and wet summer. Our run of cold Decembers and warm Marches seems to have turned on its head this year. 

From what I've read today, ECM, CMA and JMA have all released summer outlooks that show northern blocking with below average heights either over or to the south of the UK.

Now there has to be a real reason for that, and it can't be the analogues as I've discovered - so the thing to look for is something that's different now to during those past years that were similar in all of the period Nov-Dec, Jan-Feb and March.

I think it's unlikely to be solar activity, because the full range of that accompanies the analogue years, yet they produced similar height anomaly patterns to one another.

In fact, the vast majority of variables work together to define those height anomaly patterns in the first place, so the variable that the models are responding to has to be something recent...

 

...surely it's the loss of Arctic sea ice? The models are probably fed with data regarding the nature of the ice - not just the extent but the very important volume estimates - which as things stand should lead them to predict a large loss of sea ice extent by summer, unless they forsee an Arctic pattern unusually conducive to preserving sea ice.

What we have seen during the summers 2007-2012 are much above normal heights across both Greenland and near/over the Pole, with remarkable similarity between all of those years across those regions. Could the loss of sea ice in some way generate that pattern?

In my opinion, if that same pattern occurs again this summer, then it will indicate that Arctic sea ice - or whatever new variable is driving it - is capable of overriding the combined effect of all the other variables, leaving us with a bleak outlook for future summers in the UK, which could take a marked climate shift to break free of - imagine, the release of trapped methane gas... having a silver lining .

---

Hi all,

Here's my second summer 2013 seasonal model forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html

A mixed signal, but the trend continues to be rather poor unfortunately.

---

All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

Agreed. Although the overall mean temperature was also somewhat on the cool side:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

For comparison here are the previous two summers' data:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif (2011 summer mean temperatures v 1971-2000 as 81-10 data are not available)

Summer 2012: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/14/2010_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

 

---

I wonder if those summers that were a degree or more below average achieved that through having a lot of particularly low overnight temperatures? I've seen low-single digits as late as early July from incursions of Arctic air under settled conditions.

For the past two summers the theme IMBY has indeed been surpressed maximums offset by minimums kept near or above average by cloud cover, but two of the years since 2006 have showed a different nature:

Year           2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012    LTA

Average Max   19.4    20.4    21.4     21.7    19.6   19.1      20.7

Average Min    10.8   12.6    11.8      11.8     11.0   11.6      11.0

All temperatures are in °C

2009 and 2010 were reasonable summers down here, only seeming a bit dissapointing because of the standard set pre-2007 which was still fresh in our minds (I for one felt that the weather owed us a hot summer, and that was after just 2-3 dismal ones!).

2011 and 2012 were both notably cooler than average by day (by more than the 1°C benchmark) but the ogernight minimums were average and above, respectively. 2007 was a similar year to those two, while 2008 took the effects of cloudy nights to the extreme.

The same summer mean as last year could be achieved with a daytime average of 21.1 and a nightime average of 9.6°C, which I'd be happy with after the last two and such a chilly spring. Of course I'd rather match my LTA but with 21.7°C by day and 10°C by night!

---

Hi all,

Here's my second summer 2013 seasonal model forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

A mixed signal, but the trend continues to be rather poor unfortunately.

Stillplenty of time to change though???

great summarys that you give all round Gav

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/glbz700e3Mon.html

Having altered a little since Gav's video, CFS is now agreeing to a greater extent with the UKMET ensemble mean regarding the summer - the key thing is the persistent signal for the summer to have a better June/July and a less fine August. I strongly believe that month-by-month output is far better than 3-monthly, as most summers tend to be of two distinct halves, so I continue to hope that in the future, more institutions will release month-by-month projections. In my opinion CFS has never recently sided with the Brazillian model, as it's not shown a +ve anomaly to the NW - something it often showed in the run up to the last two summers.

For the first two summer months, there's been a fairly consistent signal for pressure to be higher to the east of the UK, and that's very different to the run up seen during recent years. Sure, the height anomalies shown aren't very strong, but due to the fact that Euro Highs don't tend to get much above 1025mb in summer, it would take an extraordinarily strong signal to produce notable height anomaly predictions there.

Looking at the Russian model's temperature and precipitation anomalies (see Gavin's vid), the temperature anomalies weren't all that easy to derive something from, but the precipitation anomalies show below average totals for the North Sea,Scandinavia and a stretch of the mid-Atlantic, and above average totals across Greenland. To me this indicates a -ve NAO with troughing through Greenland and heights often just east or northeast of the UK - similar to the UKMET and CFS outlooks.

The BBC also shows above average heights to the NE but less to to the east - a more changeable signal for the summer but not nearly as cool as would be suggested by +ve anomalies to the NW. Perhaps the model sees the summer shifting towards a trough across the south more quickly than CFS and UKMET.

 

So here's my take on what the overall signal from the models is:

Going by the much favoured option of +ve anomalies to our NE and perhaps E, and -ve anomalies to our NW but also across or near to the south, I'm seeing an overall signal for a summer warmer than 2011 and 2012, perhaps considerably so, but not without substantial unsettled spells, these being most prominent later in the summer. June and July have good potential for some fine, warm or even (briefly) hot periods as ridging from the SW interacts with the heights to the NE and/or E, but it seems likely that troughs will tend to develop to our south and drift up into the UK, probably giving a lot of rain in a short period of time. The cold North Sea temps could lead to below average nighttime temperatures. August sees the higher heights tending to locate further away from the UK, leaving us open to lengthy spells under the influence of troughs either from the continent or the Atlantic - perhaps a dire month that drags the whole summer down?

The above would actually mean more of a westerly-driven June and July for the NW in particular, perhaps more continental across the SE, before an unsettled easterly-driven pattern comes to dominate for August.

---

Hi all,

Here's my second summer 2013 seasonal model forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasona.html

A mixed signal, but the trend continues to be rather poor unfortunately.

Stillplenty of time to change though???

great summarys that you give all round Gav

Hey, thanks.

Yes, things may improve next month.

---

All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

Agreed. Although the overall mean temperature was also somewhat on the cool side:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

For comparison here are the previous two summers' data:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif (2011 summer mean temperatures v 1971-2000 as 81-10 data are not available)

Summer 2012: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/14/2010_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

 

Temperatures don't have to be low in summer for things to deliver a bad summer.

What helps make a bad summer and we have had 6 bad ones in a row up to and including last summer and the factors for a bad summer are.

1. Dullness and overcast days.

2. Frequency of rain and heavy rain.

3. Wind.

A day in summer can have a max of 19C - and a minimum of 12. That delivers a mean of 15.5C - on a CET basis that is not bad at all.

But if it is overcast and relentlessly grey like Auguist 2008 - then it can lead to a very very bad month indeed.

We have not had a really cold summer for ages and ages. But the bad ones we have had in recent years have dominated by very wet spells - summer 2007 for example - and also dullness August 2008 and June and July last year - spoilt for choices.

These last 6 summers have easily been the worst sequence in the whole of my life.

 

---

All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

Agreed. Although the overall mean temperature was also somewhat on the cool side:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

For comparison here are the previous two summers' data:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif (2011 summer mean temperatures v 1971-2000 as 81-10 data are not available)

Summer 2012: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/14/2010_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

 

Temperatures don't have to be low in summer for things to deliver a bad summer.

What helps make a bad summer and we have had 6 bad ones in a row up to and including last summer and the factors for a bad summer are.

1. Dullness and overcast days.

2. Frequency of rain and heavy rain.

3. Wind.

A day in summer can have a max of 19C - and a minimum of 12. That delivers a mean of 15.5C - on a CET basis that is not bad at all.

But if it is overcast and relentlessly grey like Auguist 2008 - then it can lead to a very very bad month indeed.

We have not had a really cold summer for ages and ages. But the bad ones we have had in recent years have dominated by very wet spells - summer 2007 for example - and also dullness August 2008 and June and July last year - spoilt for choices.

These last 6 summers have easily been the worst sequence in the whole of my life.

 

The last six years have easily seen the longest run of poor summers for at least 30 years, IMO. I know the 80's had some not great ones; the notably bad ones here in that decade were 1985 and then July & August 1988. But that was countered to some extent by 1983, 1984 and 1989 all being good ones. If this summer does end the run of poor ones, it'll be the first decent one since 2006- that's 7 years ago now.

One very poor summer month that I recall from the period pre-2007 was August 2004. That really was an awful month. but it was only the one month. I think June and July that year were fairly average and although not great in the grand scheme of things, neither month was anywhere near as wet as that August.

---

The last six years have easily seen the longest run of poor summers for at least 30 years, IMO

I have mentioned on previous occasions just how bad the last 6 summers have been. In Kev Brads' list of summers back to 1901, there is no consecutive run of 6 summers anywhere near as bad as the last six. I think the previous longest run of summers with a below average Manchester index was four, and this last happened 1985-1988.

The question is whether the main drivers of our summer weather are [or will be] in a similar state this year?

All this talk about not having had a cold summer recently... last year my stats were as follows for maximum temps (the only thing that matters temp wise in summer) against the 1981-2010 average:

June (-2.62C)

July (-1.92C)

August (-0.28C)

If that wasn't cold then heaven help us!

Agreed. Although the overall mean temperature was also somewhat on the cool side:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif

 

For comparison here are the previous two summers' data:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif (2011 summer mean temperatures v 1971-2000 as 81-10 data are not available)

Summer 2012: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/14/2010_14_MeanTemp_Anomaly_1971-2000.gif

 

Temperatures don't have to be low in summer for things to deliver a bad summer.

What helps make a bad summer and we have had 6 bad ones in a row up to and including last summer and the factors for a bad summer are.

1. Dullness and overcast days.

2. Frequency of rain and heavy rain.

3. Wind.

A day in summer can have a max of 19C - and a minimum of 12. That delivers a mean of 15.5C - on a CET basis that is not bad at all.

But if it is overcast and relentlessly grey like Auguist 2008 - then it can lead to a very very bad month indeed.

We have not had a really cold summer for ages and ages. But the bad ones we have had in recent years have dominated by very wet spells - summer 2007 for example - and also dullness August 2008 and June and July last year - spoilt for choices.

These last 6 summers have easily been the worst sequence in the whole of my life.

 

My comments were more to highlight the fact there has been little in the way of warmer than average periods in recent summers. That is possibly less of an issue in the south when it is climatically warmer anyway. For example 1°C below average would give a max on average of 20°C in many parts the south but only 15°C here. IMO 20°C still feels warm, where 15°C does not.

Anyway on the subject of rainfall over the last few summers, here are the anomaly data (compared with the 61-90 average for consistency):

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2011/14/2011_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2010/14/2010_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2009/14/2009_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2008/14/2008_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2007/14/2007_14_Rainfall_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 

The new UK summer? I certainly hope not.

I could add that out of the last 6 summers, 5 have had below average sunshine, with one reaching average. Last summer really took the biscuit in terms of gloominess :(

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/2012/14/2012_14_Sunshine_Anomaly_1961-1990.gif 

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With acknowledgements to Kevin Bradshaw.

The Manchester summer index of grotty summers.

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The consistency of the summer patterns year-on-year has been disturbing to say the least.

The latest individual CFS run paints a dire picture for a fair bit of June and July, before improving markedly in August - sod's law states that it had to do that to totally contradict the output that I analysed earlier today (though that was an average of many runs).

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