It may well be a bit early in mid April but does anyone have any potential leaning on how Summer 2013 may shape up? Following several dismal UK summers in a row , could 2013 show signs of a dryer and warmer potentiallity or are we in for a possible/probable continuation of the dross of previous summers? It may be well too early to offer views at this stage but as we are seemingly and currently in for a potential sustained spell of wet and windy weather in the weeks ahead....maybe April showers.... this seems to mirror 2012 at this stage.

Ideas, suggestions, on this excellent forum always welcome. Over to you all.....

In my view/opinion.

I think this summer will be cool and dry - I think we'll see a couple of brief warm spells.

It will not be a good summer. But it will not be as bad as the previous 6 summers.

However, my gut feeling is that this summer will in large part consist of the northern blocking we have seen so much of this past few years.

This summer may well be a pre-cursor to a very cold winter even colder than what we have experienced so far.

In a lot of ways with what I have just said here. I would like to be proved wrong.

The patters we have had recently do have a lot of 1962 written all over it.

 

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Its worth noting that had the past months charts occurred in July it would have been very warm with a dry and sunny continental easterly. Therfore if high pressure was to relocate to the north of the UK it wouldnt necessarily be a bad thing for summer.

In my view, it will not be quite as wet as last year (can't be surely)....but I fear my Ark will be needed in good measure again in 2013.

Just a gut feeling, but I think we are in an extended pattern of cool, wet summers and cold ish winters.

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This looks like a good place for this 'light' study that I carried out:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000

The links in my original post became invalid as the site did not keep hold of my composites, so I'm in the process of creating a presentation using the Google Docs product. Hopefully the above link works just fine!

 

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I don't no whether it's a browser problem with me but the links are only showing the home page of the website.

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It appears that all of the composites I produced aren't stored on the site. The only way I could get around that would be to store them somewhere else... I'll look into it.

 

Edit: I've produced a presentation on my findings using Google Docs, here's a link to it:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000

Any feedback will be much appreciated

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It appears that all of the composites I produced aren't stored on the site. The only way I could get around that would be to store them somewhere else... I'll look into it.

 

Edit: I've produced a presentation on my findings using Google Docs, here's a link to it:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ABNAaKs5zk0Ua1pcX-nW2hEaUfFpe3UpiMjrk1Pbn9w/pub?start=false&loop=false&delayms=3000

Any feedback will be much appreciated

A very clear and interesting analysis. Thanks. I would be interested in your thoughts on what a 'good' summer actually means. Predominance of dry weather for sure but were those summers cool to warm, rather than warm to hot. 

I can't remember a similar run of summers that have been so noticeably cool as to those since 2006. With a complete lack of AH heading our way I wonder if the cool theme will be maintained this year albeit much drier and sunnier.

Rob

I'm expected at least one month this year to produce record high temperatures.   But whether that'll be any of the traditional summer months I couldn't say.

After a record dry summer followed by a near record wet summer in these parts, I think rainfall could fall either way.  Or even end up average.  But it may well be a summer of large regional variation once again.

Er, that's about it!

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2013

A Cooler than average year , average rainfall

Early falls of snow later in the year

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Here's my first summer 2013 seasonal model-round up video from last month;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/seasonal.html

There was no sign of an especially good summer last month.

I'll have a new update within the next week or so. Will be interesting to see if theres any sigificant changes.

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A very clear and interesting analysis. Thanks. I would be interested in your thoughts on what a 'good' summer actually means. Predominance of dry weather for sure but were those summers cool to warm, rather than warm to hot. 

I can't remember a similar run of summers that have been so noticeably cool as to those since 2006. With a complete lack of AH heading our way I wonder if the cool theme will be maintained this year albeit much drier and sunnier.

Rob

Your welcome 

For me, a 'good' summer manages average temperatures and average rainfall, with most of the rainfall from convective showers. Due to the fact that the anomalies are only a rough guide to the conditions on the ground, I think that seeing signs of a 'good' summer covers the various definitions that most people have (there are of course exceptions, such as those who'd rather it was cool and damp).

I think the most encouraging signs from my study are the ones pointing towards a decline in Arctic pressure and associated high latitude blocking, and those +ve mid-latitude anomalies which indicate an Azores High that's often able to extend well on into the UK and Europe

The thing is, that projection, as opposed to one of a completely opposite sort of summer, is entirely a result of how a single month turned out - March 2013.

FWIW the CFS output for the summer that I've seen over the past few months has been more encouraging than anything I can recall from the past 3-5 years. Right now it looks average and westerly driven for May, similar for June, and then good for July. It's been indicating a decent July for a long time now.

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My punt would be something along the lines of 1917 (which had a very cold spring of course)

The better half of the summer will be from mid May - early July. Then from mid July - late August I would expect it to be  wet and cool, just in time for the summer holidays in England. I think 1993 had a similar pattern also, cooled down by the time mid July was reached.

Then I would expect a warm sunny spell early September.

I think there will be a week long hot spell (temps over 30c in England) this summer, but it won't hang around.

Hey Stormchaser, thanks for your analysis. That was a very interesting read and I for one hope we have a warm dry summer. The last one with that combination was 7 years ago so we are due a decent one.

Of course the weather will do what the weather will do but we can hope.

Pretty sure that this will be a rather unsettled,wet summer. No idea on temperature at this point but given the ongoing coolness I expect it to be average at best

Based on the trend since 2007 for wetter and more unsettled summers coupled with cooler and more prolonged winters, my reckoning will be for another cool and unsettled summer this year. A mid 80's style winter could well be followed by a mid 80's style summer is my reckoning.

I love heat, humidity and sunshine in summer...therefore I will grab anything that is on offer like that with open arms ! 

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 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before autumn sets in.

 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.

Corrected for Marcus

 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.

Corrected for Marcus

lol, and add snow in June for YD!

I think we'll see the jetstream further north this year and a more typical summer, some wetter/cooler spells but also a few heatwaves

 my gut feeling is we are going to contine with the trend of cool/wet summers this year

as well.even though we are overdue a hot/dry one.

Just a gut feeling

June- cool with above average rainfall

July- could well be the best month of all, warm,dry and sunny

August- below average temperatures & a noticably cool wet month

september- an indian summer mid month before winter sets in.

Corrected for Marcus

lol, and add snow in June for YD!

I think we'll see the jetstream further north this year and a more typical summer, some wetter/cooler spells but also a few heatwaves

The last several years have been typical summers for the UK, albeit a couple of them were on the wet side. As Darren says, the shock on here will be acute if we actually do get a genuine cold summer. With temperatures now returning close to 1961-90 values, it's only a matter of time before the die rolls up such a summer