The CET is only derived from 3 stations though, one of which is Pershore Throckmorton, so that's the one to watch.  And in cold weather it tends to be colder than anywhere else on the Midlands .....

Must be more than 3 surely? Apart from anything else, the area shown covered by the CET is a quadrilateral, 3 stations only gives you a triangle

Now at 4.4;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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The CET is only derived from 3 stations though, one of which is Pershore Throckmorton, so that's the one to watch.  And in cold weather it tends to be colder than anywhere else on the Midlands .....

Must be more than 3 surely? Apart from anything else, the area shown covered by the CET is a quadrilateral, 3 stations only gives you a triangle

It's supposed to be 3, and was historically, but some of the stations closed I think so now they are calculated as the mean of two others, or something. The CET is a bit of a movable feast.

 

Here you go: http://badc.nerc.ac.uk/view/badc.nerc.ac.uk__ATOM__dataent_CET

 

The Met Office have also been compiling Maximum, Minimum and Mean Daily Central England Temperatures data files since January 1878. The following stations are used by the Met Office to compile the CET data:Rothamsted, Malvern, Squires Gate and Ringway.

But in November 2004, the weather station Stonyhurst replaced Ringway and revised urban warming and bias adjustments have now been applied to the Stonyhurst data after a period of reduced reliability from the station in the summer months.

 

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Now at 4.4;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

If this keeps up - I reckon we could get to below 3C or even below 2C.

 

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Now at 4.4;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

If this keeps up - I reckon we could get to below 3C or even below 2C.

 

Below 3c gives me a shot, but to get to below 2c would be impressive. I would love to see that. I guess that would take some really low overnight minima? 🙂

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below 3 or 2 i doubt currently due to the forecast showing cloud over large parts all week. If skies cleared for some time you would record probably close to record breaking figures with such depth of snow across places. 

But you would need a few -15+ in a row this week for a cold cet. Looks like coming in just under average but not a representation of how potent january will have been. 50% of the month well below, matching the first 50% with mildness. 

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I think it needs to average near -1c to get sub 2c, though sub 2.5c can be managed more easily with a mean of around 0c.

A below average month looks likely anyway, though it won't look very notable in the CET history books because of the early mildness

I think it needs to average near -1c to get sub 2c, though sub 2.5c can be managed more easily with a mean of around 0c.

A below average month looks likely anyway, though it won't look very notable in the CET history books because of the early mildness

Who would hand on heart have expected a chance of a below average month based on the first ten days, which were ridiculously mild!

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My CET estimate has now diverged from Hadley a little as my calculations show the mean was about 1C lower than the Hadley estimate on both the 16th and 17th.

Currently I have the CET at 3.91C to Hadley's 4.11C to the 18th.

Latest output suggests the CET will finish at 2.74C.

The last couple of days of January at the moment look very mild. The CET actually bottoms out at 2.49C on the 26th. If the CET remained close to zero right until the end of the month the CET could finish close to 2C.

My CET estimate has now diverged from Hadley a little as my calculations show the mean was about 1C lower than the Hadley estimate on both the 16th and 17th.

Currently I have the CET at 3.91C to Hadley's 4.11C to the 18th.

Latest output suggests the CET will finish at 2.74C.

The last couple of days of January at the moment look very mild. The CET actually bottoms out at 2.49C on the 26th. If the CET remained close to zero right until the end of the month the CET could finish close to 2C.

GW - Did you change your calculation methodology following the October and November divergences with Hadley or have you kept with the old approach through December and January? Thanks.

My CET estimate has now diverged from Hadley a little as my calculations show the mean was about 1C lower than the Hadley estimate on both the 16th and 17th.

Currently I have the CET at 3.91C to Hadley's 4.11C to the 18th.

Latest output suggests the CET will finish at 2.74C.

The last couple of days of January at the moment look very mild. The CET actually bottoms out at 2.49C on the 26th. If the CET remained close to zero right until the end of the month the CET could finish close to 2C.

GW - Did you change your calculation methodology following the October and November divergences with Hadley or have you kept with the old approach through December and January? Thanks.

I did change it very slightly but not much. My December estimate came in at 4.80C compared to the final Hadley figure of 4.78C so hopefully the accuracy has improved.

Hmmm,it has got me thinking, we not had a cold middle third of January. ie 11th-20th January period for sometime. Could turn out the coldest such period for some years.

11th-18th January 2013: 0.6C
11th-20th January 2001: 1.0C
11th-20th January 1987: -2.9C

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My CET estimate has now diverged from Hadley a little as my calculations show the mean was about 1C lower than the Hadley estimate on both the 16th and 17th.

Currently I have the CET at 3.91C to Hadley's 4.11C to the 18th.

Latest output suggests the CET will finish at 2.74C.

The last couple of days of January at the moment look very mild. The CET actually bottoms out at 2.49C on the 26th. If the CET remained close to zero right until the end of the month the CET could finish close to 2C.

GW - Did you change your calculation methodology following the October and November divergences with Hadley or have you kept with the old approach through December and January? Thanks.

I did change it very slightly but not much. My December estimate came in at 4.80C compared to the final Hadley figure of 4.78C so hopefully the accuracy has improved.

Ah, but are Hadley accurate or have they erred? I'll be keeping an eye on this

Hmmm,it has got me thinking, we not had a cold middle third of January. ie 11th-20th January period for sometime. Could turn out the coldest such period for some years. 11th-18th January 2013: 0.6C 11th-20th January 2001: 1.0C 11th-20th January 1987: -2.9C

 

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By contrast with the CET area my aws, on east Dartmoor so by no means the far SW, has a mean temp this month of 4.8C, and here nearer the coast at Kingsteignton we are yet to see a frost.

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below 3 or 2 i doubt currently due to the forecast showing cloud over large parts all week. If skies cleared for some time you would record probably close to record breaking figures with such depth of snow across places. 

But you would need a few -15+ in a row this week for a cold cet. Looks like coming in just under average but not a representation of how potent january will have been. 50% of the month well below, matching the first 50% with mildness. 

I'm not sure how you work that out.  We could easily get below 2c this month.  We only need CET's of 0c to the end of the month for it to come in at 2.38c  -  Current CET (4.1) multiplied by days already gone (18) divided by number of days in the month (31).

CET now down to 4.1c to 18th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

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below 3 or 2 i doubt currently due to the forecast showing cloud over large parts all week. If skies cleared for some time you would record probably close to record breaking figures with such depth of snow across places. 

But you would need a few -15+ in a row this week for a cold cet. Looks like coming in just under average but not a representation of how potent january will have been. 50% of the month well below, matching the first 50% with mildness. 

I'm not sure how you work that out.  We could easily get below 2c this month.  We only need CET's of 0c to the end of the month for it to come in at 2.38c  -  Current CET (4.1) multiplied by days already gone (18) divided by number of days in the month (31).

CET now down to 4.1c to 18th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

The big question though Caz is if the cold spell holds or intensifies - Or if it breaks down just before the end of the month.

Many forecast models are now indicating a breakdown.

 

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Annoyingly parts of the Midlands are now up to 1c! If the cold can just hold on a couple more days to the end of Jan then my 1.9c might not be far off though!

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We go sub 4c for the first time this month;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

3.8

Must say this has been one of the most impressive CET crashes for a long time. Maybe up there with November 2005?

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We go sub 4c for the first time this month;

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

3.8

Must say this has been one of the most impressive CET crashes for a long time. Maybe up there with November 2005?

Good stuff. A 0c average from here on in would give 2.3c at month end...

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