Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

4 Pages123>»
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:05:43(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,136

We approach the end of another year (where does the time go!) so here is a new thread for your CET predictions for 2013. Remeber there are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2013 as a whole.

A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead (I will open up the January thread later today). The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month.

For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2013. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html

The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.

More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2013 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 2nd January

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line).

I will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year and post updates in this thread.

SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES

Edited by user 03 June 2013 21:53:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

Wanna join the discussion?! Login to your TheWeatherOutlook forum account. New Registrations are disabled.

Offline Dougie  
#2 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:35:51(UTC)
Dougie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 16,530
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

Thanks Simon, 9.96°c for me please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline alan  
#3 Posted : 27 December 2012 17:58:41(UTC)
alan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 184
Location: Broughty Ferry,Dundee

My carefully considered........guess, which is based on the square root of eff all, is - 10.12c.

 

Thanks. Looking forward to keeping tabs on this next year.

Edited by user 27 December 2012 17:59:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

beaufort  
#4 Posted : 27 December 2012 18:07:14(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

10.25 C. please.

Offline Snow Hoper  
#5 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:06:38(UTC)
Snow Hoper

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 38,054
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

10.02C for me please.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!

Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.

Work: Around Bury St Edmunds.

Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:17(UTC)
Deep Powder

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,433
United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

9.52c for me please......:-)

Thanks for running all of these CET variations SC, they are great!

Near Leatherhead 100masl

Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great!

Offline llamedos  
#7 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:55(UTC)
llamedos

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 31,661
Man
Location: Hertfordshire

10.29C please.

"Life with the Lions" - Farcus the last of the Gizzard-Dunkins

UserPostedImage UserPostedImage

Problems or queries? Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com

Offline Saint Snow  
#8 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:46:42(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 43,624
Man
Location: St Helens

10.33c

Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:

"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

Offline GezM  
#9 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:52:38(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 717
Man
United Kingdom

10.10C please. Cool

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Offline nouska  
#10 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:57:24(UTC)
nouska

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 2,613
Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

10.53C for me, please.
Offline redmoons  
#11 Posted : 28 December 2012 01:27:17(UTC)
redmoons

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,220
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.57c for me

Andrew,

Watford

ASL 35m

Blog - http://www.andrewlalchan.com | Live weather - http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk

Johnny25  
#12 Posted : 28 December 2012 10:08:39(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

I'll have a stab at 10.33C
Offline llamedos  
#13 Posted : 30 December 2012 08:27:58(UTC)
llamedos

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 31,661
Man
Location: Hertfordshire

bump

"Life with the Lions" - Farcus the last of the Gizzard-Dunkins

UserPostedImage UserPostedImage

Problems or queries? Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com

Offline Essan  
#14 Posted : 30 December 2012 09:11:38(UTC)
Essan

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 29,921
Antarctica
Location: Albion

10.50c 

Edited by user 30 December 2012 09:13:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.

Weather & Earth Science News

Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk.

Offline Roonie  
#15 Posted : 30 December 2012 15:30:34(UTC)
Roonie

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,301
Man
Location: North Worcestershire

9.71 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire

Offline Maunder Minimum  
#16 Posted : 30 December 2012 17:30:31(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC)
Posts: 32,987
Man
Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Please give me a 9.72 thanks.

EUphiles will stop at nothing to prevent the UK from regaining its lost independence.
Offline Stormchaser  
#17 Posted : 30 December 2012 19:27:40(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
Man
Location: West Hants

I really don't have a clue

The Met Office are predicting that 2013 will be the warmest year globally since records began:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast

...but we all know how little that tends to mean for the UK, aside from increased moisture levels!

I'm anticipating some cold weather for the second half of Jan and perhaps through a large part of February, so a cold start to rise from - but then spring 2013 could be dry and warm or cold and wet or any combination of those as far as I'm concerned!

As for the summer, could we really see yet another cool one? Unfortunately it does not come down to 'balancing' but rather the state of countless variables, some of which seem to be heavily favouring particular states of late - solar activity low, ENSO towards La Nina, Arctic Sea ice low, and so on.

The autumn and winter 2013... why even bother

 

So all I can do is throw out a number and cross my fingers I'll go for 9.77°C please.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2018's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

markyb1888  
#18 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:14:55(UTC)
Guest

Rank: Guest

Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC)
Posts: 6,714

8.39 oC please

Online doctormog  
#19 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:18:29(UTC)
doctormog

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,982

I like nice round numbers so will go for 10.0°C please.
Offline Taylor1740  
#20 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:53:27(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 42
Location: Leeds

 9.49c please

Users browsing this topic
4 Pages123>»
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings Posting League USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Live Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS HIRLAM Icon Met Office UM Fax CFS GFSP