Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,157
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We approach the end of another year (where does the time go!) so here is a new thread for your CET predictions for 2013. Remeber there are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2013 as a whole. A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead (I will open up the January thread later today). The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month. For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2013. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions. More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2013 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note: - your prediction should be to two decimal places; and - your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).
Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).
Entries close at 23:59 on 2nd January
To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line). I will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year and post updates in this thread. SHOW EXTERNAL IMAGES Edited by user 03 June 2013 21:53:36(UTC)
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Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 16,530   Location: Sidcup, Kent.
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Thanks Simon, 9.96°c for me please. |
Ha'way the lads |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 184 Location: Broughty Ferry,Dundee
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My carefully considered........guess, which is based on the square root of eff all, is - 10.12c. Thanks. Looking forward to keeping tabs on this next year. Edited by user 27 December 2012 17:59:58(UTC)
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,714
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 38,057   Location: Thorndon, Suffolk
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By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!
Home : Thorndon, Suffolk. Work: Around Bury St Edmunds. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,433  Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl
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9.52c for me please......:-)
Thanks for running all of these CET variations SC, they are great! |
Near Leatherhead 100masl
Loving the weather whatever it brings, snow, rain, wind, sun, heat, all great! |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 31,662  Location: Hertfordshire
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 43,989  Location: St Helens
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Trump on Jeffrey Epstein: "I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 720  
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10.10C please.  |
Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl) Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl) |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 2,613 Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 1,220   Location: Watford
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,714
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I'll have a stab at 10.33C
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 31,662  Location: Hertfordshire
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 29,995  Location: Albion
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10.50c  Edited by user 30 December 2012 09:13:00(UTC)
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Andy Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
And, you know, there is no such thing as society. There are individual men and women and there are families. And no governments can do anything except through people, and people must look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then, also, to look after our neighbours - M Thatcher.
Weather & Earth Science News
Cape Wrath and Beyond - My blog for the Cape Wrath Trail 2019 charity walk. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 3,313  Location: North Worcestershire
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9.71 please |
Still Lurking.......
North Worcestershire |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 08/09/2007(UTC) Posts: 33,363  Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)
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Please give me a 9.72 thanks.
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EUphiles will stop at nothing to prevent the UK from regaining its lost independence. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 11,773  Location: West Hants
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I really don't have a clue   The Met Office are predicting that 2013 will be the warmest year globally since records began: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/2013-global-forecast ...but we all know how little that tends to mean for the UK, aside from increased moisture levels! I'm anticipating some cold weather for the second half of Jan and perhaps through a large part of February, so a cold start to rise from - but then spring 2013 could be dry and warm or cold and wet or any combination of those as far as I'm concerned! As for the summer, could we really see yet another cool one? Unfortunately it does not come down to 'balancing' but rather the state of countless variables, some of which seem to be heavily favouring particular states of late - solar activity low, ENSO towards La Nina, Arctic Sea ice low, and so on. The autumn and winter 2013... why even bother  So all I can do is throw out a number and cross my fingers I'll go for 9.77°C please.
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If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)
Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2018's Homeland Extremes: T-Max: 30.9*C 8th July | T-Min: -7.7*C 28th Feb | Wettest Day: 19.2mm 14th October | Ice Days: 4 (28 Feb - 2 Mar & 18 Mar) Keep Calm and Forecast On |
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Rank: Guest
Joined: 19/01/2010(UTC) Posts: 6,714
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8.39 oC please 
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 69,223
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I like nice round numbers so will go for 10.0°C please. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC) Posts: 42 Location: Leeds
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