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Offline Global Warming  
#1 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:05:43(UTC)
Global Warming

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Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,135

We approach the end of another year (where does the time go!) so here is a new thread for your CET predictions for 2013. Remeber there are several CET competitions that run during the year. This thread is just for making a prediction as to what you think the CET will be for 2013 as a whole.

A separate thread is opened each month for predictions for the CET in the month ahead (I will open up the January thread later today). The monthly thread also features a different annual competition to see who has the most accurate monthly predictions on a cumulative basis throughout the year. This is updated every month.

For the annual CET competition covered by this thread you need to predict what you think the mean Central England Temperature (CET) will be for 2013. The CET series is maintained by the Met Office Hadley centre and their official statistics will be used to determine the result of the competition. The figures can be found at the following link http://www.metoffice.gov...adcet/cet_info_mean.html

The data is updated with provisional figures daily and adjusted figures for the month are usually published on the 1st day of the following month. You will often hear us refer to the "Hadley" data when talking about the CET. This because there are other versions of the CET but we currently use the Hadley data for our competitions.

More details on what constitutes the CET area and links to more detailed articles can be found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/

To enter the competition all you need to do is post your prediction of the mean temperature in the CET area for 2013 in Celsuis. There are two important points to note:
- your prediction should be to two decimal places; and
- your prediction needs to be unique so we have no more than one winner at the end of the year (so first come first served on any particular figure).

Any entry that is not unique and is not adjusted will be amended by me to the nearest available figure (either up or down).

Entries close at 23:59 on 2nd January

To assist you with your prediction the chart below shows the CET each year since 1961 (green line), the average for 1971-2000 (blue line), average for 1981-2010 (red line) and a 10 year moving average (purple line).

I will monitor how the annual CET is progressing throughout the year and post updates in this thread.


Edited by user 03 June 2013 21:53:36(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 86m asl

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Offline Dougie  
#2 Posted : 27 December 2012 16:35:51(UTC)

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Posts: 16,530
United Kingdom
Location: Sidcup, Kent.

Thanks Simon, 9.96°c for me please.

Ha'way the lads
Offline alan  
#3 Posted : 27 December 2012 17:58:41(UTC)

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 184
Location: Broughty Ferry,Dundee

My carefully considered........guess, which is based on the square root of eff all, is - 10.12c.


Thanks. Looking forward to keeping tabs on this next year.

Edited by user 27 December 2012 17:59:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

#4 Posted : 27 December 2012 18:07:14(UTC)

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Posts: 6,714

10.25 C. please.

Offline Snow Hoper  
#5 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:06:38(UTC)
Snow Hoper

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Location: Thorndon, Suffolk

10.02C for me please.

By the time you realise your parents were right, your kids already think that you're wrong!
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Offline Deep Powder  
#6 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:17(UTC)
Deep Powder

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United Kingdom
Location: Near Leatherhead 100masl

9.52c for me please......:-)

Thanks for running all of these CET variations SC, they are great!
Near Leatherhead 100masl
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Offline llamedos  
#7 Posted : 27 December 2012 19:17:55(UTC)

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Location: Hertfordshire

10.29C please.

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Online Saint Snow  
#8 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:46:42(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens


Trump on Jeffrey Epstein:
"I’ve known Jeff for fifteen years. Terrific guy. He’s a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side. No doubt about it — Jeffrey enjoys his social life."

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Offline GezM  
#9 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:52:38(UTC)

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Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 717
United Kingdom

10.10C please. Cool

Living in St Albans, Herts (90m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Offline nouska  
#10 Posted : 27 December 2012 21:57:24(UTC)

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Location: SW France and Weybridge, Surrey.

10.53C for me, please.
Offline redmoons  
#11 Posted : 28 December 2012 01:27:17(UTC)

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,220
United Kingdom
Location: Watford

10.57c for me

ASL 35m
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#12 Posted : 28 December 2012 10:08:39(UTC)

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Posts: 6,714

I'll have a stab at 10.33C
Offline llamedos  
#13 Posted : 30 December 2012 08:27:58(UTC)

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Joined: 10/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 31,661
Location: Hertfordshire


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Offline Essan  
#14 Posted : 30 December 2012 09:11:38(UTC)

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Posts: 29,921
Location: Albion


Edited by user 30 December 2012 09:13:00(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl
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Online Roonie  
#15 Posted : 30 December 2012 15:30:34(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 3,301
Location: North Worcestershire

9.71 please

Still Lurking.......

North Worcestershire
Offline Maunder Minimum  
#16 Posted : 30 December 2012 17:30:31(UTC)
Maunder Minimum

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Location: Copenhagen (work) and West Worcestershire (home)

Please give me a 9.72 thanks.
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Offline Stormchaser  
#17 Posted : 30 December 2012 19:27:40(UTC)

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 11,764
Location: West Hants

I really don't have a clue

The Met Office are predicting that 2013 will be the warmest year globally since records began:


...but we all know how little that tends to mean for the UK, aside from increased moisture levels!

I'm anticipating some cold weather for the second half of Jan and perhaps through a large part of February, so a cold start to rise from - but then spring 2013 could be dry and warm or cold and wet or any combination of those as far as I'm concerned!

As for the summer, could we really see yet another cool one? Unfortunately it does not come down to 'balancing' but rather the state of countless variables, some of which seem to be heavily favouring particular states of late - solar activity low, ENSO towards La Nina, Arctic Sea ice low, and so on.

The autumn and winter 2013... why even bother


So all I can do is throw out a number and cross my fingers I'll go for 9.77°C please.

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#18 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:14:55(UTC)

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Posts: 6,714

8.39 oC please

Offline doctormog  
#19 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:18:29(UTC)

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Joined: 04/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 68,980

I like nice round numbers so will go for 10.0°C please.
Offline Taylor1740  
#20 Posted : 30 December 2012 20:53:27(UTC)

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 42
Location: Leeds

 9.49c please

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