I'm starting to develop a suspiscion that while high pressure may be keen to stick around to our SW next month, it might actually get drawn up to our NW on multiple occasions.

April could be on the cool side and often showery as cold airmasses interact with the strengthening sunshine. In between those outbreaks, high pressure would probably be close by. Organised rainfall might be hard to come by if that version of events materialises, but even so rainfall could be near average for most places, above in the north.

 

There isn't much I can draw on to support my suspiscion and to be honest I have no confidence in it whatsoever Why did I post this, you ask? Well, there's always a chance that by some fluke of nature this vision of the future could turn out close to the mark, in which case I'll be glad I posted it

Hardly strong evidence, but CFS v2 would tend to support a slightly less blocked set up.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

Whether they'll say the same tomorrow...

The met offices probability maps for March for the period from April to June have updated

Rain

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_prec_months24_europe_prob_public.png

850 hPa Temperature

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_t850_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Pressure

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/images/prob_ensemble/20120301/2cat_20120301_mslp_months24_europe_prob_public.png

Those Met Office probability maps highlight the potential for high pressure to be more dominant to the west of the UK. It even shows something I've been suspecting, which is that we're just moving into a period of several months during which high-latitude blocking struggles to really take hold, meaning a dominance of mid-latitude blocks instead.

High pressure dominant to the west can allow for troughing across the UK, but in April and May you'd expect this to be quite slack in nature, giving showery conditions rather than organised frontal rain. While that is standard fare for the former month in particular, I fear that with a dominance of winds from the northwest and north, the south and particularly the southeast would struggle to get a lot of rain. Such a setup was largely responsible for summer 2010 being rather cool but also drier than average IMBY.

The IOD model has updated for March

March to May

Rain fall

Continues to be below normal

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/tprep.glob.MAM2012.1mar2012.gif

Temperature

Close to or just above normal

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/2007/forecast/temp2.glob.MAM2012.1mar2012.gif

The signal for blocking to the NW of the UK has developed a tad further this morning.

It could mean some very interesting April weather, with the classic April showers in full swing. To provide appreciable rain for most or all of us we need troughing to dive right over the UK rather than to the east, as the latter doesn't tend to deliver much to southern areas.

If we get something from the north, we usually find that the pattern either reloads, or high pressure collapses over the UK, or - and this is the holy grail for drought-busting weather - we get Atlantic lows undercutting the block to our NW and attacking from the SW.

GP just posted on Netweather about the prospects for April that arise due to a rise in angular momentum and changes in the MJO... essentially the support is for high pressure located W or NW of the UK, potentially far enough as to allow for lots of troughing over the UK - however, GP points out that the AO is looking to remain positive, which would likely place high pressure in close proximity to the UK. That would mean a different feel to the month but a continuation of the low rainfall issues down in the south in particular.

Even though GFS predicted temperatures of 19C in Yorkshire, it looks like the Met Office were right all along, low cloud and fog will just ruin it. Curse the North Sea and ALL easterly winds

CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.

CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

 

That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.

CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

The new version is showing a warm April for our neck of the woods too.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20120324.201204.gif

I'm more inclined to favour the BCC for trends as it has been more consistent than the CFS in picking out the major pattern changes of the last few years. All the long rangers are showing a cooling NH as summer progresses - time will tell.

CFS charts show a continuation of above temperatures through-out spring

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

 

That's the soon to be retired CFS v1.

CFS v2 suggests anomalies looking pretty much average for the rest of spring (ans summer).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

The new version is showing a warm April for our neck of the woods too.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.T2m.20120324.201204.gif

I'm more inclined to favour the BCC for trends as it has been more consistent than the CFS in picking out the major pattern changes of the last few years. All the long rangers are showing a cooling NH as summer progresses - time will tell.

Rather contrarily though on the more detailed CFSv2 map it shows no indications of warm anomalies in western Europe in April...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

@ Steam Fog; it's a different set of ensembles within V2 and a more up to date run - doesn't mean any more accurate though!

I would take this for the rest of spring and summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

I would take this for the rest of spring and summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.

I would take this for the rest of spring and summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.

Personal

I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought

It seems that blocking to our NW may play a part in determining the weather over the UK during April and May, however it might lose out to a Euro block from time to time, with troughing trapped near the Azores.

Potentially we could see dramatic swings in temperature from one week (or fortnight) to the next, rather like how conditions may have changed in 10 days time when compared to now.

The pattern seems reluctant to arrange such as to place troughing near or over the UK for more than the odd spell of a few days, so as yet there's not much sign of drought-breaking rains across much England and Wales at least. Scotland and some NE parts of England may experience some useful convective showers on numerious occasions.

I would take this for the rest of spring and summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.

Personal

I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought

Heat waves and drought are not completely unrelated?

If all year all you wish for is mild, dry, high pressure dominated weather and then that is what you have, it is perhaps not a surprise if drought conditions follow?

And certainly a warmer than average, sunny spring and summer would be great. Lovely sunny days by the beach are great. Just a shame if it follows a drier than average winter, spring, summer, autumn, winter... Ideally it would be good to have cooler and wetter weather in late autumn, winter, early spring (rather than the options of dry, dusty, drought through summer, or a wet and cool summer which avoids a drought, but is not much fun).

For the remainder of spring at least CFSv2 (for what it;s worth) looks average

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html 

I would take this for the rest of spring and summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

Quite possibly because you are daft and have not noticed much of the country is already in drought.

Personal

I think many would take that. It's a temperature forecast and nothing to do with drought

Heat waves and drought are not completely unrelated?

If all year all you wish for is mild, dry, high pressure dominated weather and then that is what you have, it is perhaps not a surprise if drought conditions follow?

And certainly a warmer than average, sunny spring and summer would be great. Lovely sunny days by the beach are great. Just a shame if it follows a drier than average winter, spring, summer, autumn, winter... Ideally it would be good to have cooler and wetter weather in late autumn, winter, early spring (rather than the options of dry, dusty, drought through summer, or a wet and cool summer which avoids a drought, but is not much fun).

For the remainder of spring at least CFSv2 (for what it;s worth) looks average

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html 

It's not hard to see that you have issues with Gavin. I suggest that if you have a problem just ignore him

As for heat and drought, my point stands. If you look back July 1977, that was a very dry month but also cool due to the proximity of HP feeding in cold winds from the north and similarly heat can often bring much thundery rainfall. The only point I would concede is that more heat can lead to greater evaporation rates but even that may depend on ambient humidity and windspeed