Isn't there a saying that the high pressure follows the sun, or something.

Maybe we'll see the Azores High, which has never been very far away this winter, have a significaant bearing on the months ahead. Suits me 

 

R

I remember last year when people were doubting whether summer 2011 would be good given spring 2011 was following the same route as spring 2007 - and their fears were proved correct. 

 

Not techically correct as up here in the north you cant really compare the two years. 2007 was complete writeoff with the floods of June virtually signalling an end to Summer even before it had begun. The ground around here remained waterloged even into September so even if we did get a few nice days it still didnt erase the lingering effects of the floods.

Last year, althought still poor, was a huge improvement and indeed was very dry across some parts which indicates the decent amount of pleasant, useable days. August was quite a nice month round here. If the 2nd half of July had been similar to the 1st half then i would look back on last year more positively.

I believe that if we get a dry and warm Spring along the lines of 1990,1997 or 2003 then i wouldnt be too concerned as all those years produced good summers (if you ignore June 1997).

Get a April CET of 12c and almost no rainfall and i would be slightly worried.

cool spring, well the CFS charts currently show anything but a cool spring

I'm not sure picking out individual CFS charts is an especially useful predictive tool. As has been said fairly frequently they switch back and forth on such a regular basis.

Significant degree of drought stress set for 2012 in SE. The magnitude will be influenced by rainfall over next 8 to10 weeks:

http://www.ceh.ac.uk/news/news_archive/January-2012-UK-Hydrological-Summary_2012_12.html

So, if we dont get above av rain from now to mid April we could be in for serious drought.Typically March & April have been dry in recent years.

You can't beat a freshly pulled pint and then sat outside enjoying it with the warm sun, that's what Spring to me is all about. I think a warm April and May is great for that, not too warm and humid like mid summer.

I know it is a little bit further on in to June, Iwas working with the boat project at leeds waterfront festival last year in june and at the end of the evening when we went for a beer it was (because of the local atmosphere and music) I could have been abroad. So back on topic! Doh! I hope it will be a normal spring, with some snow showers/sleet, and then slowly warming up towards easter. HAAHAA THENNNN BARBEQUE TIME! PS already put coat on, I may be awhile!

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You can't beat a freshly pulled pint and then sat outside enjoying it with the warm sun, that's what Spring to me is all about. I think a warm April and May is great for that, not too warm and humid like mid summer.

I define spring weather as being that which brings sunshine warm enough to enjoy a freshly pulled pint as you say, but which also brings a breeze chilly enough to warrant the wearing of more than just a t-shirt.

I've known such conditions to persist through a good part of the summer months in recent years, often after being infrequent during April in particular

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For me, Spring begins definitely when i can ditch the thick winter coat when going out cycling, however all too often i go out with a thin extra layer and get caught out because i didnt factor in the added wind chill when cycling on the open roads.

When the temperature gets to 14/15c in a light breeze i would regard that as positively springlike. Today, although mild, isnt up to that standard just yet.

Does anyone know of a composition chart for March-May height anomalies during a negatve AMO and negative PDO setup combined?

See, I was wondering if the AMO going cold would result in predominantly drier than average conditions due to less moisture being taken up from the ocean, however the impact in the UK also depends on what the pressure anomalies are likely to be.

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I remember last year when people were doubting whether summer 2011 would be good given spring 2011 was following the same route as spring 2007 - and their fears were proved correct. 

 

Not techically correct as up here in the north you cant really compare the two years. 2007 was complete writeoff with the floods of June virtually signalling an end to Summer even before it had begun. The ground around here remained waterloged even into September so even if we did get a few nice days it still didnt erase the lingering effects of the floods.

Last year, althought still poor, was a huge improvement and indeed was very dry across some parts which indicates the decent amount of pleasant, useable days. August was quite a nice month round here. If the 2nd half of July had been similar to the 1st half then i would look back on last year more positively.

I believe that if we get a dry and warm Spring along the lines of 1990,1997 or 2003 then i wouldnt be too concerned as all those years produced good summers (if you ignore June 1997).

Get a April CET of 12c and almost no rainfall and i would be slightly worried.

2007 wasn't as cool as 2011, it was just much wetter. 2011 was the coolest for some 20 years though.  There is a patern though, isn't there?

 

2007: warmest spring on record, wettest summer for many years

2008: very warm May, one of the warmest, very wet summer and cloudy

2011: warmest spring yet again, coolest summer for many years, wet summer for some, especially Scotland and southern England

OH, and in all the February's in those years, I recorded spring like temperatures in the final half of the month

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Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

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Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

Fortunately it's a long way away

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Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

Fortunately it's a long way away

Yeah, but if you follow the progression through, the switch to the deep upper trough actually starts in the May-Jul anomaly and then as it progresses it gets deeper in the subsequent charts. Still, even May-Jul is a long way off and all long range models come with a big health warning as we know.

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Over the past month or so, the long range models seem to have been backing down from showing some higher latitude blocking in spring, instead choosing to develop it during the summer months, meaning a drier spring outlook and a wetter summer outlook. That's not good, both for the tourism industry and as far as the drought potential is concerned.

 

My own hunch has been that high latitude blocking will be most prevailent from mid March through to late May. Despite a loss of model support for that, I may as well keep hoping that my hunch is closer to the mark.

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Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

What does that show then for July to September? rain or warmth or both?

Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

What does that show then for July to September? rain or warmth or both?

 

Looks more like rain and cool to me if that chart came off.

The CFS charts still go for a mild spring and a warm start to summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

As for rainfall that looks low too

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

The CFS charts still go for a mild spring and a warm start to summer

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euT2mProbMon.gif

As for rainfall that looks low too

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/images3/euPrecProbMon.gif

Those are off course probability charts. 

Put another way they show an average March for the north east, 55-65% chance of cold or average temperatures for the south east and western Scotland and a 45-55% chance of cold or average tempetratures for Wales and Ireland...

 

 

Heres the latest 500mbr height anomaly the Beijing model is forecasting for Mar-May;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201203_201205GLZ500L1.GIF

Blocking to the north and east. Weak trough to the west. That could actually be a signal for quite a mild spring, IMO, with winds from a southerly quarter and near normal rainfall.

Check out what it comes up with for Jul-Sep;

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLZ500L5.GIF 

What does that show then for July to September? rain or warmth or both?

A big upper trough over the UK and blocking over Greenland.

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Some very strange temp anomaly charts being produced by BCC. They correctly progged the very warm autumn/early winter and show similar for spring but look where they go for summer - most of the NH landmass below normal!

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201206_201208GLTERTL4.GIF 

http://cmdp.ncc.cma.gov.cn/pred/cs/CS2012/CS201207_201209GLTERTL5.GIF