NBC News via you tube is live, has gone coverage. Still stating Cat 4

Landfall 1505hrs at Cayo Costa Cat 4

Ian is now over open water in the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida.  It’s now predicted to spend at least 24 hours over the ocean and to restrengthen back to a Cat 1 hurricane due to the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, before making a second landfall on the coast of South Carolina.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/291500.shtml?

Review of weather effects here

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/09/ians-rampage-across-florida-leaves-a-trail-of-ruin/

including 28" rain in 27 hours and storm surges up to 12 feet. Most spectacular is this nighttime image from space showing Florida, before and after, the latter totally blacked out.(scroll down for image)

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NOAA20?src=hashtag_click

PS The disturbance in mid Southern Atlantic which promised to develop has proved to be a damp squib, fizzling out as TD Eleven

Many reports of complete devastation across mid-Florida but a combination of early forecasting and building codes appear to have kept fatalities in dozens rather than hundreds (latest 21 deaths). Ian is likely to rank somewhere around the 5th most expensive hurricane to hit the States; guesses are about $50bn, which is a third of the cost of the most expensive, Katrina.

Ian now inland in N Carolina where it appears to have been very rough but not disastrous, and forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hours.

New disturbance off Africa is given a 70% chance of development to TD in 5 days by NHC as it moves westward. If this happens, it will be Julia.

Orlene about to landfall in NW Mexico as a hurricane but in a sparsely populated area N of Guadalajara - might disrupt the activities of the Sinaloa drug cartel.

Mesmerizing, suspenseful satellite imagery of the life of #Ian

From tropical wave to catastrophic to post-tropical#weather #meteorology pic.twitter.com/1AZGKFARC1

— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) October 1, 2022

Ian now up to the US' sixth deadliest hurricane with fatalities reaching 100 and counting, mainly due to storm surge on over-developed low-lying coastal areas.

Invest 91L now forecast to reach the Caribbean by the weekend where it should at least become a tropical storm, if not hurricane, threatening Nicaragua.

Invest 92L nearer Africa which looked promising now forecast to fizzle out as tropical depression in mid-Atlantic limited by wind shear though its remnants could re-organise later.

The first of these two to reach TS level will be Julia; the other, if it happens, will be Karl

91L continues to develop and likely to be TS Julia shortly, becoming a hurricane once it moves free of the coast of South America, estimates vary from cat 1 to cat 3 when it reaches Nicaragua. An increasing number of forecasts show it crossing C America and reviving as a TS/hurricane in the Pacific.

EDIT - Naming as TS Julia confirmed, and predictions seem to be standing up.

The Atlantic remains quiet but the Philippines are getting another bashing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-63435588

I think Nalgae was 'only' a tropical storm on landfall, but the amount of rain has resulted in enough flooding for 45 deaths and counting.

A couple of late-season Atlantic hurricanes have popped up. Lise menacing Belize and Yucatan; Martin just drifting N /NE from mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile Nalgae, having battered the Philippines and caused about 100 deaths there, has moved on and is threatening the southern coast of China, just west of Hong Kong, as a full-on hurricane

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3197950/hong-kongs-no-3-typhoon-warning-signal-remain-force-tuesday-higher-alert-considered-storm-nalgae 

A couple of late-season Atlantic hurricanes have popped up. Lise menacing Belize and Yucatan; Martin just drifting N /NE from mid-Atlantic.

 

I dont want to sound critical in the wrong sense but I have been distinctly unimpressed by th NHC's forecast skill this season. Not because of their call for a much more active (North Atlantic) season this year... after a slow start there has been a good deal of activity recently.

It is more to do with their seeming lack of skill in predicting developments. There are examples throughout this season, but I'll concentrate on the last two, Lisa and Martin. Lisa was forecast to not develop at all, and then when it did the forecasters were adamant that the storm after landfall would not cross over in to the bay of Campech, dimissing the outliers in modelling that said it would. It IS now forecast to do just that, although they are now confident that even so it will not develop further. We will see. Martin was detected as an area of disturbance that was unlikely to develop. A day or so later it disappeared off the output, with no further potential. Only to reappear a day later with perhaps a gradual dvelopment that would be squashe in a few hours. Of course Martin is now a Hurricane.

As I say there have been other such dismissals during the season.

Now I know that forecasting is an art as well as a science, and development or not is an excercise in probalitys based on fluid dynamics and plume dispersal as well as phsings with jetstreams, and juggling barotropic  with baroclinic forcings.

But they do seem to have been singularly lacking in skill this season, considering all the observations and the equipemnt to make those observations at their disposal.

I dont know what other peoples views are, and if I'm wrong I'm happy to be shown why.

Anyone else with comments?

Regards

Steve

 

 

I dont want to sound critical in the wrong sense but I have been distinctly unimpressed by th NHC's forecast skill this season. Not because of their call for a much more active (North Atlantic) season this year... after a slow start there has been a good deal of activity recently.

It is more to do with their seeming lack of skill in predicting developments. There are examples throughout this season, but I'll concentrate on the last two, Lisa and Martin. Lisa was forecast to not develop at all, and then when it did the forecasters were adamant that the storm after landfall would not cross over in to the bay of Campech, dismissing the outliers in modelling that said it would. It IS now forecast to do just that, although they are now confident that even so it will not develop further. We will see. Martin was detected as an area of disturbance that was unlikely to develop. A day or so later it disappeared off the output, with no further potential. Only to reappear a day later with perhaps a gradual development that would be squashed in a few hours. Of course Martin is now a Hurricane.

As I say there have been other such dismissals during the season.

Now I know that forecasting is an art as well as a science, and development or not is an exercise in probabilities based on fluid dynamics and plume dispersal as well as phasings with jetstreams, and juggling barotropic  with baroclinic forcings.

But they do seem to have been singularly lacking in skill this season, considering all the observations and the equipment to make those observations at their disposal.

I dont know what other peoples views are, and if I'm wrong I'm happy to be shown why.

Anyone else with comments?

Regards

Steve

And this evening Martin has disappeared from the NHC forecasts; yesterday evening it was forecast to be close to the British Isles on Sunday as a Tropical Storm! (Just to add confusion, the BBC for the week ahead has shown a copy of yesterday's NHC chart with Martin still alive though only after a merger with the resident N Atlantic LP)

So I agree that NHC has not covered itself with glory this year. I'm not inclined to cut the NHD and other forecasters much slack in their prediction of an above-average season. We're only up to M for Martin, and IMO only two hurricanes which could be considered 'major', Ian in Florida and Fiona in Nova Scotia.

It seems to me that the various hurricane forecasters underestimated the prevalence and persistence of a large area of Saharan dry air which had drifted SE into mid-Atlantic and suppressed most of the wave disturbances leaving Africa. That, of course, immediately invites the question, why was the Saharan air so widespread this year?

 

And this evening Martin has disappeared from the NHC forecasts; yesterday evening it was forecast to be close to the British Isles on Sunday as a Tropical Storm! (Just to add confusion, the BBC for the week ahead has shown a copy of yesterday's NHC chart with Martin still alive though only after a merger with the resident N Atlantic LP)

So I agree that NHC has not covered itself with glory this year. 

It turned extra tropical as was forecast, and it's been removed over the past couple of hours. Early today it was still packing 85mph sustained. 

However now that it is just another run of the mill mid Atlantic storm I don't see your issue here with NHC removing it. 

Just over an hour the last details regarding Martin.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al16/al162022.discus.010.shtml?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al16/al162022.public.010.shtml?

 

It turned extra tropical as was forecast, and it's been removed over the past couple of hours. Early today it was still packing 85mph sustained. 

However now that it is just another run of the mill mid Atlantic storm I don't see your issue here with NHC removing it. 

Agreed, they were quite right to remove it; but the point was that they have been unable to get the forecast right. Today it's not there; yesterday it was getting close to Britain; the day before that it was gradually dying in mid-Atlantic.

 

Agreed, they were quite right to remove it; but the point was that they have been unable to get the forecast right. Today it's not there; yesterday it was getting close to Britain; the day before that it was gradually dying in mid-Atlantic.

I don't understand because it was always forecasted to become extra tropical in the area it did. As & where the reminant low went after 5 days will have always been subject to change, however the warning cone this afternoon still had the reminant low near  northwestern Scotland on Sunday.

A couple of late-season Atlantic hurricanes have popped up. Lise menacing Belize and Yucatan; Martin just drifting N /NE from mid-Atlantic.

Meanwhile Nalgae, having battered the Philippines and caused about 100 deaths there, has moved on and is threatening the southern coast of China, just west of Hong Kong, as a full-on hurricane

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3197950/hong-kongs-no-3-typhoon-warning-signal-remain-force-tuesday-higher-alert-considered-storm-nalgae 

Lisa didn't just "pop up" as they were discussing the risk of a storm developing on 25th Oct 🙂

 

I don't understand because it was always forecasted to become extra tropical in the area it did. As & where the reminant low went after 5 days will have always been subject to change, however the warning cone this afternoon still had the reminant low near  northwestern Scotland on Sunday.

But by the evening when I posted, Martin had been replaced by a yellow cross indicating simply a disturbance, and the accompanying legend was for 10% chance of development, as it is this morning.

So a substantial change at short notice which brings me back to the point I was making about uncertain forecasting. I don't know whether the 'disturbance' represents the remnants of Martin or a new development.

As for Lisa, were NHC the anonymous 'they' referred to in your post? I used 'popped up' as Lisa had not been shown on the NHC charts until a couple of days beforehand.  There may well have been a discussion somewhere separate to the actual chart, but it wasn't mentioned on this comprehensive review following until a week after your date of Oct 25th.

I quote "Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, formed at 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Oct. 31, in the waters a few hundred miles south of Jamaica." https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/tropical-storm-lisa-forms-in-the-central-caribbean/ 

Rather than me go on hearsay and befuddled recollection on my part (age does that to you, Let me point to the development of martin as an example.

8am 29 Oct.. the NHC discussion concludes..."Further development unlikely"

8pm 29 Oct.. ............................................."chances decreasing"

2pm 30 Oct................................................" development no longer anticipated"

5.45 am 31 Oct     The area of disturbed weather no longer appears on NHC outlook charts or discussions.

2pm  31 Oct          The area reappperas and the discusiion  mentions ..." a small window of opportunity for development"

5.05am 1 Nov         Nhc discussion concludes " 70% chance of development"

11am  1 Nov           Now becomes Tropical Storm Martin

11am   2 Nov                  Upgraded to Hurricane Martin

Now this is just one example. I mentined before the dismissal that Lisa would cross into the Bay of Campeche, yet here with the remnants of Lisa in exactly that location. Doesnt look likely there will be regeneration, but based on the above with Martin...can we have confidence in NHC forecasting.

Ther are several other examples this season of similar outputs, but I have not the time nor inclination to look at them all. However if anyone is interested these archived discussions (back to 2014 in this set) can be found at the NHC archives  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive_list.php?basin=atl

 

But by the evening when I posted, Martin had been replaced by a yellow cross indicating simply a disturbance, and the accompanying legend was for 10% chance of development, as it is this morning.

So a substantial change at short notice which brings me back to the point I was making about uncertain forecasting. I don't know whether the 'disturbance' represents the remnants of Martin or a new development.

 

As for Lisa, were NHC the anonymous 'they' referred to in your post? I used 'popped up' as Lisa had not been shown on the NHC charts until a couple of days beforehand.  There may well have been a discussion somewhere separate to the actual chart, but it wasn't mentioned on this comprehensive review following until a week after your date of Oct 25th.

I quote "Tropical Storm Lisa, the 12th named storm of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, formed at 11 a.m. EDT Monday, Oct. 31, in the waters a few hundred miles south of Jamaica." https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/10/tropical-storm-lisa-forms-in-the-central-caribbean/ 

That yellow cross wasn't Martin. That was another completely different area, and it was there earlier in the day at the same time as Martin. Martin was way to the northeast of this area but had lost its appearance by then due to transitioning. They update hourly and if you're checking in once a day you'll miss a lot when you have a fast moving storm like Martin was.

Regards Lisa on the 25th you can go back into their archives and read the posts yourself. They discussed it in the outlook that you're greeted with when on the main page even though at the time it wasn't given a percentage cross. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive.php?current_issuance=202210251147&basin=atl&fdays=5

Rather than me go on hearsay and befuddled recollection on my part (age does that to you, Let me point to the development of martin as an example.

8am 29 Oct.. the NHC discussion concludes..."Further development unlikely"

8pm 29 Oct.. ............................................."chances decreasing"

2pm 30 Oct................................................" development no longer anticipated"

5.45 am 31 Oct     The area of disturbed weather no longer appears on NHC outlook charts or discussions.

2pm  31 Oct          The area reappperas and the discusiion  mentions ..." a small window of opportunity for development"

5.05am 1 Nov         Nhc discussion concludes " 70% chance of development"

11am  1 Nov           Now becomes Tropical Storm Martin

11am   2 Nov                  Upgraded to Hurricane Martin

Now this is just one example. I mentined before the dismissal that Lisa would cross into the Bay of Campeche, yet here with the remnants of Lisa in exactly that location. Doesnt look likely there will be regeneration, but based on the above with Martin...can we have confidence in NHC forecasting.

Ther are several other examples this season of similar outputs, but I have not the time nor inclination to look at them all. However if anyone is interested these archived discussions (back to 2014 in this set) can be found at the NHC archives  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/xgtwo/gtwo_archive_list.php?basin=atl

 

 

You are also getting confused by two separate areas close by. One was a moderate chance that ultimately failed to materialise and the other became Martin. At one time both areas were visible on the NHC main page.