We all know how well such long term sections of the GFS model can turn out to be.

It's not a washout. No sign of steady rain just more risk of convective activity which will deliver variable rainfall

 

It's not a washout. No sign of steady rain just more risk of convective activity which will deliver variable rainfall

Indeed, that is also an important point. Some places (with the exception of Witney, N Norfolk and Chester) may miss most of it. 

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GFS op remains well below ensemble mean pressure, but the mean has fallen from where it was. Now up to around 1013-1015hPa by the 22nd. Only a couple of days ago we were looking at high pressure back in charge by next weekend and temperatures back nudging 30C.

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ENS mean is up to 1020hPa by the end of the 06z runs. Leaving aside the low pressure op which is a huge unsettled outlier, the spread at 384 hrs is from 1012 to 1033 (op is 1006).

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That's only the first 10 days though, the first half of which are likely to be bone dry. The trough then sits right over the UK for another week!

 Rainfall modelling has some way to catch up with temp modelling which has become pretty accurate recently. It is going to change next week with showers breaking out and possibly more organized rain at the end of the week.

ENS mean is up to 1020hPa by the end of the 06z runs. Leaving aside the low pressure op which is a huge unsettled outlier, the spread at 384 hrs is from 1012 to 1033 (op is 1006).

It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.

I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 

Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).

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It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.

I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 

Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).

 I hope you are right as it is looking like a dessert out there now

 

It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.

I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 

Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).

 

At +384 hr (which is the time point to which Tim is referring) the pressure on the op run is the lowest in the entire set.

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 I hope you are right as it is looking like a dessert out there now

Sand pudding rather than mud pie?

https://www.food.com/recipe/sand-pudding-recipe-516491

https://tasty.co/recipe/mississippi-mud-pie 

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Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?

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Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?

We’ll find out next week in Scotland.

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Stay on topic everyone please - I've just deleted a post from here.

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Wonder if we'll get wet weather when the kids go back?

 

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It doesn't look like an outlier in any way to me. Very representative of the mean.

I feel we need to accept that the end is nigh on this unbelievable spell of weather. 

Mother Nature is about to start making up the rainfall deficit (as she always does).

Er no she don't. You have been on this forum long enough to know the weather/climate don't work like that.

Here is the precipitation table from the 06z GEFS. Imby

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=308&y=102&run=6&ext=1&mode=3&sort=0

Massive washout I'm building a boat as I type. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_162_18.png 

Not really much rain at all for many up to 162 hours on GFS.

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Washout nailed on apparently. 

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Washout nailed on apparently. 

One run Brian! 😅

OK, I'll get my coat (or should that be my galoshers).

Shame IDJ isn't still about, I need my ark.

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This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier

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This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier

It really down to France to end the heat but with on-going heat will not let the rain happen and get downgraded.  Rain will return when France back down the heat that had been around since May.  34.6C here today under super dry air and very comfortable without a sweat.

This epic washout summer just gets drier and drier

Wed next week should see some proper showers in the south, and then cooler, will feel autumnal compared to what we have now.  

 

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