The journey I have been on with GWV started here, with Gavin's Thoughts. I first began the week ahead forecast/Gavin's Thoughts during the hot summer of 2003. Back then I was on a dial-up connection and I would rush to get the forecast completed before someone called in and cut off the connection... Little did I know then that from the "Thoughts" would grow a YouTube channel, a website, social media pages, an entire community and a business from which I would be able to earn a living!
Why am I going on this trip down memory lane? Well, because in 19 years of doing the week ahead forecast there have been some historic forecasts (August 2003, December 2010, July 2019 to name but three) and this weeks forecast will join the most historic of those "Thoughts" from the midst of time as we predict 40C for the first time...
Saturday morning has started mostly dry, sunny and warm though there is more cloud in the north and west. The rest of the day will stay mostly dry with bags of sunshine in many places but showery rain will push into western Scotland and Northern Ireland. Temperatures will range from 16C to 28C north west to south east.
Overnight, showery outbreaks of rain will spread northeastwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland with a few heavy bursts in places. England and Wales will stay mostly dry although patchy rain is possible for north west England. The best of the clear spells will be in the south. It will be a warm and increasingly humid night with temperatures of 12C to 18C.
Sunday will start with showery rain across eastern Scotland and north east England but most of that will clear away quite quickly and then we should all settle into a mostly dry day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Temperatures will become hot for England and Wales - widely reaching 30C to 32C (86F to 90F) and very warm temperatures of 24C to 27C (75F to 81F) for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
High pressure will be over and slightly to the east of the country on Monday. This will allow an exceptionally hot dome of air to move up from France.
The whole country should have a universally dry day with prolonged spells of sunshine. Some parts of the south and east will see unbroken sunshine all day with clear blue skies from dawn until dusk. For Scotland and Northern Ireland temperatures will be very warm to hot at 25C to 30C (77F to 86F) but for England and Wales temperatures will become exceptionally hot with the chance of the hottest day on record as temperatures range widely from 35C to 39C (95F to 101F) There's an outside chance one of two places may see the temperature reach 40C (104F) which would be the first time temperatures have reached 40C in the UK in modern recorded history!
After such a hot day temperatures will remain extraordinarily hot on Monday night. Temperatures for much of England and Wales will hold up at around 20C to 25C and some towns and cities will see temperatures potentially holding up at 27C or even 28C. These temperatures would absolutely smash previous minimum temperature records! Not as hot in the north but even here it will be a very warm night at 18C to 21C. All places should stay dry with clear spells and variable cloud.
Hot Tuesday is likely to go down as a historic day. High pressure will be easing away to the east with a trough of low pressure developing to the west. The resulting southerly wind and increasing humidity it likely to produce the UK's hottest ever day (in recorded history)
Most places will have a dry day with lots of sunshine but heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop across Northern Ireland, western Wales and south west England by days end. Here temperatures will actually ease back to 21C to 28C (70F to 82F) after a hot morning. The rest of the country will just become hotter and hotter. By 9am temperatures through central and eastern England may already by at 35C (95F)! Widespread afternoon temperatures of 32C to 39C (90F to 102F) are likely with some parts of central and eastern England potentially reaching 40C to 42C (104F to 107F) - If we start bringing in cloud ahead of the showers developing in the west then this could limit the heat potential so there is uncertainty about just how hot Tuesday will get!
Tuesday evening and night will find the the trough of low pressure moving eastwards bringing an end to the extreme heat spike but also triggering thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms are likely to become widespread and severe in the west through the evening gradually pushing northwards and eastwards overnight. Temperatures will gradually start to ease back.
Wednesday will start with potentially severe thunderstorms across many parts of the country although storms could be "hit and miss" in the south. The storms are should clear away through the afternoon though thundery rain and/or storms could last for much of the day across eastern Scotland and north east England. Brighter skies will follow the storms and the air will become much fresher. Temperatures will return to much more sensible levels of 18C to 27C.
Thursday and Friday will bring a lot of dry weather as a ridge of high pressure extends in from off the Atlantic. Scattered showers are possible in the north on Thursday and heavy showers or longer spells of rain could threaten the south on Friday. However, most places will stay dry with temperatures of 18C to 24C.
Next weekend probably brings a lot of dry and warm though not excessively hot weather. Temperatures close to or a just a little above average.
Summary: Heat spike! Becoming dangerously hot through the early part of next week with extreme heat potentially lifting temperatures to 40C or more for England and Wales. Severe thunderstorms possible mid-week leading to a much cooler and fresher second half.
Edited by user
16 July 2022 13:18:48
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Reason: Not specified
Rural West Northants 120m asl
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