Something that has been common in modern British Summers since 2015 is the "heat spike" - A sudden burst of very extreme heat (+20 isotherm) surging northwards through western Europe and making it into the UK for perhaps one or two days before being swept away by cooler Atlantic winds - often without a lot of thunderstorms, which is what differentiate's the "Heat Surge" from the traditional "Spanish Plume" of years gone by.
This summer already had one teaser heat surge on 17th June but if current model output is to be believed a potentially record breaking heat surge could arrive next weekend. One to watch...
In the meantime the coming week promises a lot of dry, sunny and warm or even hot weather. Summer 2022 stepping up several gears in the coming week?
Saturday morning has been mostly dry with increasing amounts of sunshine. This afternoon will see further sunny spells developing though the north and west will always have more cloud and there could even be light rain or drizzle for northern and western Scotland. Temperatures will range from 18C to 27C.
Overnight, all places will be dry with a mix of clear spells and low cloud. Temperatures range from 10C to 16C so it will be another warm night.
Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday. The whole country will stay dry with plenty of sunshine although there will be some areas of low cloud to start the day. Temperatures will become hot in the south and east where a range from 24C to 28C here but a cooler 18C to 21C for the north and west.
High pressure will be sitting over the top of the country on Monday but low pressure will approach north west Scotland.
The majority of the country will be dry with plenty of sunshine in the south and east. North west Scotland and Northern Ireland will start sunny but will turn cloudier with patchy rain by evening. Temperatures will be hot for England and Wales 27C to 31C (81-88F) And even Scotland and Northern Ireland will be very warm at 21C to 25C (70-77F)
High pressure continues across the south on Tuesday but a weak cold front will edge into the north.
A band of cloud and patchy rain will slip southwards across Scotland and Northern Ireland but England and Wales will stay dry with plenty of sunny spells. Cooler in the north at 16C to 21C. Hot in the south and east at 30C to 33C (86-92F)
Wednesday will find more cloud edging southwards across England and Wales though most places will stay dry. Brighter skies return to Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England while the far south east corner could have plenty of sunshine. Temperatures could still reach 32C (90F) in Kent but overall a cooler and fresher with temperatures ranging from 16C to 25C.
Thursday will be another mostly dry day for England and Wales with increasing amounts of sunshine. Scotland and Northern Ireland probably have more cloud with patchy rain in the far north and west. Temperatures will be pleasant at 15C to 24C.
Friday should bring more dry and sunny weather to most parts of the country. Temperatures will be getting hotter in the south, probably returning to 30C or more for much of the south and east.
Into the weekend the weather becomes much more uncertain. Extreme and record-breaking heat looks set to surge northwards across much of western Europe. Will this extreme heat get into the UK or will it be kept at bay by the Atlantic?
Watch this space...
Summary: Mostly dry and very warm or hot. Cooler for a time mid-week. Extreme heatwave next weekend perhaps?
Rural West Northants 120m asl
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