Metcheck                     14.58c          Anomaly        -1.88c

Neweather                    15.33c         Anomaly        -1.18c

Peasedown St John      13.51c          Anomaly        -3.79c. 

So I gambled this month on a cool first 10 days or so and it being warm but not exceptionally hot or with any prolonged very warm weather.

Starting to look like this will be the month my luck runs out

I reckon we'll see an 18+ for this month.

Metcheck                   14.88c        Anomaly      -1.88c

Netweather                15.42c       Anomaly       -1.09c

Peasedown St John     14.41c      Anomaly       -2.89c.  

Met Office Hadley Center Central England Temperature    14.6c     Anomaly  -1.4c.

Remarkably chilly first week of the month for what has been, for the most part, a very pleasant start to July. Cool nights.

Continuing the theme of June. Perhaps many of us have gone too high? 

Metcheck                15.25c           Anomaly         -1.21c

Netweather             15.77c           Anomaly         -0.74c

Peasedown St John   15.37c          Anomaly         -3.93c. 

5 Sunny days to come next week....     

Hadley

Hadley

 

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

The only way is up now and for those who went in the 18s in the comp there's still a long way to go.....

First 6 days of 1995 had a mean of 15.5 I think (did quick mental calculation) which although it's .6 up, is not far off.

Metcheck                15.45c           Anomaly         -1.01c

Netwather                16.06c           Anomaly         -0.45c

Peasedown St John     15.52c          Anomaly          -1.78c.

Hadley

Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!

Will be back in August.

Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!

Will be back in August.

I found this in GW's January CET thread. 

Missed predictions

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition

 

I found this in GW's January CET thread. 

 

Missed predictions

 

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

 

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 

 

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

 

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 

 

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition

Metcheck             15.87c          Anomaly        -0.59c

Netweather          16.48c          Anomaly       -0.3c

Peasedown St John 15.62c         Anomaly       -1.88c.

Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.

Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.

Just so no one's unduly alarmed, it's 15.6 to 8th. Just a typo.

Should get to mid 16s early next week and slide easily into 17 + but we'll soon be half-month; so that bigheat will be needed to sustain get to 18+ I suspect. Even so, it feels 95 ish.

Edit: and if certain models bear out, 95 may have > 1 meaning! 

Metcheck      16.04c      Anomaly      -0.43c

Netweather   16.71c      Anomaly       0.22c

Peasedown St John   15.8c  Anomaly  -1.7c.