Met Office longer range forecasts have dropped all reference to the word "hot".
Very telling that.

”

Monday 11 Jul - Wednesday 20 Jul

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”

Monday 11 Jul - Wednesday 20 Jul

Fine and dry across the bulk of the UK next week with plenty of sunshine. Feeling warm or very warm, potentially hot at times for central, southern and eastern parts of the UK, particularly at the start of next week.

Thursday 21 Jul - Thursday 4 Aug

Temperatures widely above average initially, especially across the south, and potentially very warm or hot at times, most likely for England and Wales.“

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk 

Check my edit. They've downplayed it to potentially hot.

Yesterday the word "potentially" wasn't in there IIRC.

Anyway, it's all semantics. 32c is plenty hot enough foe anyone.

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Check my edit. They've downplayed it to potentially hot.

Yesterday the word "potentially" wasn't in there IIRC.

Anyway, it's all semantics. 32c is plenty hot enough foe anyone.

That is yesterday’s forecast. Today’s update has not been published yet.

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Tuesday looks very hot to me

Tuesday looks very hot to me

Yes  the GFS 6z has 32c Tuesday and looks like 35c in Kent on Wednesday and 33c Thursday.  

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GFS 6z uk max temps from tmrw. 

29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c, 29c, 25c, 28c, 30c.

 

 

 

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GFS 6z uk max temps from tmrw. 

29c, 27c, 29c, 30c, 32c, 35c, 33c, 28c, 32c, 38c, 35c.

Compare with Aug 2003 starting from Saturday 2nd:

27, 30, 33, 34, 36, 32, 32, 36, 38, 33, 32

2003 wins overall, but not by that much.

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Compare with Aug 2003 starting from Saturday 2nd:

27, 30, 33, 34, 36, 32, 32, 36, 38, 33, 32

2003 wins overall, but not by that much.

Wow forgotten how impressive that was. 

 

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Nice thread from Simon Lee

https://simonleewx.com/2022/07/06/40c-in-the-uk/ 

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Feels like the first evening of the heatwave here in SE London. 25C at the closest PWS at 8.50, 6C warmer than the same site at 2pm.

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Since that article was written, Italy took over the top spot - see the updates near the top.

The European record is now 48.8C in Syracuse, Sicily, on August 11 2021.

Yes, I forgot about those record breaking temps in Italy last year. 

What I find most surprising is the fact that far interior of eastern Europe hasn't recorded even higher temps than those in the Med region. 

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Yes, I forgot about those record breaking temps in Italy last year. 

What I find most surprising is the fact that far interior of eastern Europe hasn't recorded even higher temps than those in the Med region. 

I think the Med benefits from being able to import short lived and extremely intense hot waves from the Sahara. Eastern Europe doesn’t have the same proximity to a really hot surface.

2 things to note about the forthcoming heatwave

1 As mentioned on the MO thread, this is going to be a spell of dry heat. Not high humidity. Here’s a typical DP map on one of the hottest days, next Wed

During August 2003 one of the killer features in France was high humidity. Not this time. Fire hazard though. Even in maritime Britain the only moderately high DPs are in the West Country and are transient.

This also means nights in the countryside will be relatively cool, but it allows for extreme diurnal heating. One of the reasons I think the daily maxima being shown are so high. And when it’s dry the UHI effect is at its peak. Already this evening we have temps in the early 20s in London and at my Kent vineyard it’s 9.9C.

2 It’s also quite a cloudy hot spell. Lots of cover on most of the hot days. A lot is high cloud which is why the surface temps will remain high. So the first proper day of the heat, tomorrow, could be the nicest day of the hot spell. A fresh start in the low teens, 28-29C in mid afternoon, that low humidity, and almost uninterrupted sunshine in the South, ie 15 hours+

 

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I think the Med benefits from being able to import short lived and extremely intense hot waves from the Sahara. Eastern Europe doesn’t have the same proximity to a really hot surface.

2 things to note about the forthcoming heatwave

1 As mentioned on the MO thread, this is going to be a spell of dry heat. Not high humidity. Here’s a typical DP map on one of the hottest days, next Wed

During August 2003 one of the killer features in France was high humidity. Not this time. Fire hazard though. Even in maritime Britain the only moderately high DPs are in the West Country and are transient.

This also means nights in the countryside will be relatively cool, but it allows for extreme diurnal heating. One of the reasons I think the daily maxima being shown are so high. And when it’s dry the UHI effect is at its peak. Already this evening we have temps in the early 20s in London and at my Kent vineyard it’s 9.9C.

2 It’s also quite a cloudy hot spell. Lots of cover on most of the hot days. A lot is high cloud which is why the surface temps will remain high. So the first proper day of the heat, tomorrow, could be the nicest day of the hot spell. A fresh start in the low teens, 28-29C in mid afternoon, that low humidity, and almost uninterrupted sunshine in the South, ie 15 hours+

 

Indeed, and these (hopefully) low dew points for France will be a comfort to them. A repeat of 2003 for them doesn't bear thinking about. 

What I enjoy about dry heat is the high diurnal range. A cool night and following morning after a hot day prepares one better for the next hot day ahead. Hot days followed by humid hot nights wears one down after a while (and in my case, a very short while). 

I would agree with you also that this high could be somewhat of a 'dirty' one. It is a maritime sourced so no doubt there will be the remnants of long deceased fronts contained within it, leading  to much high cloud as you say and perhaps even come coastal lower cloud at times, which would be very typical of anticyclonic weather in July really. 

 

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Day 1 of the heatwave....let's get this party started !

I wonder if we can squeeze out a 30c (86f) somewhere today ? 

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Here and NE England, interestingly yesterday may end up being the warmest day till Monday, 23.7c yesterday and 25c on lower ground, 22-24c the next few days.

However leaving the stats behind a lovely almost perfect spell of we as there coming up.

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Here and NE England, interestingly yesterday may end up being the warmest day till Monday, 23.7c yesterday and 25c on lower ground, 22-24c the next few days.

However leaving the stats behind a lovely almost perfect spell of we as there coming up.

Looking at the forecast it doesn’t look like much of a heatwave for us, with only 2 days reaching high 20s. But that could still change I suppose. The Met Office say 22C today but it’s already above 20C with beautiful sunshine - they do have a tendency to underestimate max temps in these set ups so I can see is exceeding 30C on Monday or Tuesday next week. 

I remember August 2003 being a very SE-centred heatwave, whereas 1995, 2006, 2013, 2018, 2019 etc were all nationwide affairs with temperatures widely into the 30s even into Scotland. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

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Looking at the forecast it doesn’t look like much of a heatwave for us, with only 2 days reaching high 20s. But that could still change I suppose. The Met Office say 22C today but it’s already above 20C with beautiful sunshine - they do have a tendency to underestimate max temps in these set ups so I can see is exceeding 30C on Monday or Tuesday next week. 

I remember August 2003 being a very SE-centred heatwave, whereas 1995, 2006, 2013, 2018, 2019 etc were all nationwide affairs with temperatures widely into the 30s even into Scotland. Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

It's the curse of the zonal heatwave that scorches the continent.

Old weather proverb: "when France is wracked with heat and drought, North of Derby won't get nowt"

But "when stormclouds fill the Italian sky, the highlands and pennines shall be warm and dry" 

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Looking again it's NW England that is particularly hard done by, might not get above 17c say in Blackburn today with lots of cloud and temps moderated by the Irish sea with a fresh westerly.

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Looking again it's NW England that is particularly hard done by, might not get above 17c say in Blackburn today with lots of cloud and temps moderated by the Irish sea with a fresh westerly.

It’s their version of North Sea gloom. 

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But "when stormclouds fill the Italian sky the highlands and pennines shall be warm and dry" 

Possibly also, 'When the Highlands are dry and bright,  Yorkshire and the NE is full of North Sea Sh**e."

 

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