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Online ARTzeman  
#21 Posted : 05 July 2022 10:03:45(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck                     14.58c          Anomaly        -1.88c

Neweather                    15.33c         Anomaly        -1.18c

Peasedown St John      13.51c          Anomaly        -3.79c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Hippydave  
#22 Posted : 05 July 2022 20:11:46(UTC)
Hippydave

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/12/2010(UTC)
Posts: 1,666
Location: Tunbridge Wells

So I gambled this month on a cool first 10 days or so and it being warm but not exceptionally hot or with any prolonged very warm weather.

Starting to look like this will be the month my luck runs out

Home: Tunbridge Wells

Work: West Malling

Offline Hungry Tiger  
#23 Posted : 06 July 2022 09:48:19(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,811
Location: South Cambridgeshire

I reckon we'll see an 18+ for this month.

 

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Online ARTzeman  
#24 Posted : 06 July 2022 11:52:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck                   14.88c        Anomaly      -1.88c

Netweather                15.42c       Anomaly       -1.09c

Peasedown St John     14.41c      Anomaly       -2.89c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online ARTzeman  
#25 Posted : 06 July 2022 14:20:51(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley Center Central England Temperature    14.6c     Anomaly  -1.4c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online TimS  
#26 Posted : 06 July 2022 19:24:33(UTC)
TimS

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 13/04/2010(UTC)
Posts: 10,968
Location: Brockley

Remarkably chilly first week of the month for what has been, for the most part, a very pleasant start to July. Cool nights.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online GezM  
#27 Posted : 07 July 2022 09:35:34(UTC)
GezM

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 18/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 1,380
Man
United Kingdom
Location: St Albans

Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
Remarkably chilly first week of the month for what has been, for the most part, a very pleasant start to July. Cool nights.

Continuing the theme of June. Perhaps many of us have gone too high? 

Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)

Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)

Online ARTzeman  
#28 Posted : 07 July 2022 10:16:32(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck                15.25c           Anomaly         -1.21c

Netweather             15.77c           Anomaly         -0.74c

Peasedown St John   15.37c          Anomaly         -3.93c. 

 

5 Sunny days to come next week....     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gavin D  
#29 Posted : 07 July 2022 13:02:12(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 30,112
Man
United Kingdom

Hadley

 

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

Offline Col  
#30 Posted : 07 July 2022 14:25:14(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,709
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Gavin D Go to Quoted Post

Hadley

 

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

The only way is up now and for those who went in the 18s in the comp there's still a long way to go.....

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Online Bertwhistle  
#31 Posted : 07 July 2022 17:11:44(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,866
Location: Central Southern England

First 6 days of 1995 had a mean of 15.5 I think (did quick mental calculation) which although it's .6 up, is not far off.

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Online ARTzeman  
#32 Posted : 08 July 2022 10:38:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck                15.45c           Anomaly         -1.01c

Netwather                16.06c           Anomaly         -0.45c

Peasedown St John     15.52c          Anomaly          -1.78c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Gavin D  
#33 Posted : 08 July 2022 19:06:59(UTC)
Gavin D

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2011(UTC)
Posts: 30,112
Man
United Kingdom

Hadley

 

15.3c to the 7th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

Offline rickm  
#34 Posted : 09 July 2022 04:04:11(UTC)
rickm

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2007(UTC)
Posts: 634
Location: Frittenden

Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!

Will be back in August.

Offline Frank H  
#35 Posted : 09 July 2022 07:30:46(UTC)
Frank H

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2014(UTC)
Posts: 260
Location: Wrightington, Wigan

Originally Posted by: rickm Go to Quoted Post

Sorry not to have entered everyone especially given my current lofty position! I'm away in the States and not back till the middle of next week but hopefully Frank can work out GW's formula for a one off missed month - I certainly can't!

Will be back in August.

I found this in GW's January CET thread. 

 

Missed predictions

 

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

 

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 

 

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

 

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 

 

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition

Online Caz  
#36 Posted : 09 July 2022 07:39:10(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,901
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Frank H Go to Quoted Post

 

I found this in GW's January CET thread. 

 

Missed predictions

 

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

 

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month plus a penalty of 0.4C (to tie in with the penalties for late predictions); 

 

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

 

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (across all entrants), then the person's average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months and hence is no likely to be of significance to the overall result. 

 

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition

 Frank, you’re a star!  In fact, a super star if you can work that out!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Online ARTzeman  
#37 Posted : 09 July 2022 10:46:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck             15.87c          Anomaly        -0.59c

Netweather          16.48c          Anomaly       -0.3c

Peasedown St John 15.62c         Anomaly       -1.88c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online ARTzeman  
#38 Posted : 09 July 2022 13:22:49(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.

Edited by user 09 July 2022 14:37:19(UTC)  | Reason: TYPO

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online Bertwhistle  
#39 Posted : 09 July 2022 14:25:51(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,866
Location: Central Southern England

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley   15.0c     Anomaly    -0.4c provisional to 8th.

Just so no one's unduly alarmed, it's 15.6 to 8th. Just a typo.

Should get to mid 16s early next week and slide easily into 17 + but we'll soon be half-month; so that bigheat will be needed to sustain get to 18+ I suspect. Even so, it feels 95 ish.

Edit: and if certain models bear out, 95 may have > 1 meaning! 

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Online ARTzeman  
#40 Posted : 10 July 2022 09:44:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,203
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Metcheck      16.04c      Anomaly      -0.43c

Netweather   16.71c      Anomaly       0.22c

Peasedown St John   15.8c  Anomaly  -1.7c.       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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