BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable. A more settled period from late April

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

 

Exact date UK cold snap starts as temperatures plunge before next snow predicted to hit (msn.com)

The BBC News 24 forecasts have become pathetic. Often, with limited time, they spend the first half telling us at 6pm, what the weather is going (was)to be like during that day. Then a quick summary of the graphics followed by that annoying and wasted one minute of repetitive countdown music before the news. I know people like to bang on about a South East bias but tonight's forecast gave no temperatures for tonight or tomorrow for any towns whatsoever in the South East.

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Cool at times. Milder by mid-May. No extremes

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Forecasting the end of a long dry spell is fraught with difficulty. Yesterday BBC weather suggested  that Tuesday next week in Dorset was to become a wet day with rain heavy at times throughout most of the day but as I type this is downgraded/upgraded depending on your preference to Tuesday will start dull with a few spells of showery rain but it will gradually turn largely dry with sunny spells breaking through. 

Could rain tomorrow, though but I wouldn't bet on it. It will be great to see the end of this chilly spring and enjoy some decent warm growing weather.

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I suppose this has to go in the media thread.

What has journalism come to when you get guff like this?

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/20133351.weather-forecast-dorset-getting-hot-hot-hot/

It’s getting hot, hot, hot in Dorset this weekend as the mini-heatwave finally hits, with temperatures reaching the late teens.

 

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is the default on bbc app just to put a little non committal white cloud for 7 days going forward? Everytime I look its that.

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I thought I'd resurrect this thread (which had been pushed all the way down to page 3 of the default list of threads on this forum), because I have just come across this local press report which talks about an upcoming mini-heatwave here in Edinburgh.

The article in question has stated that Edinburgh is set to bake in temperatures of around 22°C at the end of this week. However, I have to laugh at the way that this is being exaggerated.

If the temperatures get that high here, that will be enough to give us our warmest day of this summer so far and because we haven't even had any hot weather during this year so far, that would also be enough to give us our warmest day of this year so far.

However, those are only the sort of temperatures which we would typically expect to see here on a warm summer's day and are only just above our long term averages for this time of the year.

As a result, I don't consider those sort of temperatures to be all that hot even by our standards because it can get a lot hotter than that here at this time of the year and in a typical summer, I would expect our highest temperatures to be somewhere in the upper 20s°C with those being our highest temperatures of the year.

It is true that parts of the UK might get a mini-heatwave towards the end of the week but according to the latest model output, that is likely to be largely, an England only event.

I suppose that parts of SE Scotland could do OK from that if the hot air gets far enough north, even if the rest of Scotland remains relatively cool and unsettled and Edinburgh might be included in that.

Even if that happens though, it is still not expected to get anywhere near as hot as it is likely to get down south and so this particular article has blown the outlook for the end of this week in this part of the world out of proportion because even if does get quite warm here for a while, we're certainly not likely to get any sort of mini-heatwave.

 

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I've seen a similar story touted from time to time in Dorset in the past few weeks where we're about to 'sizzle' 'bake' or whatever in temps soaring to 21/22C. I think it's the same author working for clicks and farming the work out to as many outlets as he or she can. Whether the story is accurate is irrelevant.

Looking at the image it seems that you're months behind botanically speaking too. 

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Met office extended forecast hinting at hot temperatures in the south during the 2nd half of July

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast 

Met office extended forecast hinting at hot temperatures in the south during the 2nd half of July

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast

The Met Office are sounding pretty confident at the moment. The longer term signals including the ECM long term ensembles are pretty settled.

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Britain could reach 40C by mid-July, forecast computer models predict for first time

 

https://news.sky.com/story/britain-could-reach-40c-by-mid-july-forecast-computer-models-predict-for-first-time-12648278

The lunchtime BBC weather with Darren Bett, had one of those next few days at four locations graphics at the end, and London was showing as 36c for next weekend.

Can’t remember such a high temperature on a week ahead chart before

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Potential for a very hot spell in parts of central, south, or east England next Sunday according to the met office

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/long-range-forecast 

UK long range weather forecast
Friday 15 Jul - Sunday 24 Jul
On Friday, England and Wales can expect to see dry and sunny conditions with light winds, while across Scotland and Northern Ireland, scattered showers are likely. Through the weekend and early next week, sunny and dry conditions will prevail for most under the influence of high pressure, though showers and stronger winds are likely across the northwest at times. Thundery showers are occasionally possible in the south and southwest too. Away from the northwest, temperatures will rise through the weekend, with most areas becoming very warm or hot by Sunday, with the potential for a very hot spell in parts of central, south, or east England. The latter part of this period may then see cooler and more widely unsettled conditions returning across the UK.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 10 Jul 2022

Monday 25 Jul - Monday 8 Aug
After a spell of more changeable conditions for many areas, high pressure will likely bring more settled weather again to the south and southwest. This may extend more widely across the UK, bringing generally fine weather for most, however the northwest will continue to see the majority of any cloud and rain. Temperatures will likely be above average for most, especially in the south, with the potential for it to be hot across England and Wales. However, temperatures perhaps returning close to normal again for most by the end of this period, except in the south where it may remain warm or very warm.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 10 Jul 2022

For us southerners that's a pretty bullish forecast for the height of summer!

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Nick Miller ‘potential to be hotter still next weekend’

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Just watching the Met Office online video forecast. Made me smile when the presenter used the term 'Exceptionally warm for the time of year'. At what time of year would this not be exceptionally warm!? 

I've heard weather presenters say the same in mid winter when describing a cold snap as 'Very cold for the time of year' 

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"Met Office Chief Meteorologist Paul Gundersen, said “Exceptional, perhaps record-breaking temperatures are likely early next week, quite widely across the red warning area on Monday, and focussed a little more east and north on Tuesday. Currently there is a 50% chance we could see temperatures top 40C and 80% we will see a new maximum temperature reached."

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2022/red-extreme-heat-warning 

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For this type of warning I would agree to going back to Local Authority boundaries or even Counties.

I am in amber but 3 miles down the road is red. If red means closure and amber doesn't (I am not sure) could mean some local schools/services are open but others not.
The sketched warning areas are good for snow though as it literally can be wet on the lower part of some cities which slope into the Pennines and white on the other side and can also help where there are streamers 

But for 1c difference in a heatwave just do it by Local Authority areas.

Lets see what happens anyway

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For this type of warning I would agree to going back to Local Authority boundaries or even Counties.

I am in amber but 3 miles down the road is red. If red means closure and amber doesn't (I am not sure) could mean some local schools/services are open but others not.
The sketched warning areas are good for snow though as it literally can be wet on the lower part of some cities which slope into the Pennines and white on the other side and can also help where there are streamers 

But for 1c difference in a heatwave just do it by Local Authority areas.

Lets see what happens anyway

Not sure that will help, I have lived near local authority borders, and in three different homes over the years, some primary children and secondary schools were either side, painful for some families when half terms were set as different weeks.

 

But actually I am not convinced some childrens homes would be safer than a school building, so suggesting schools should close could cause different problems 

 

 

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