An above average season predicted for the Atlantic

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/05/noaa-expects-another-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season/

but the first to show up on the NHC charts is currently off S Mexico with an 80% chance of development to TD status in 5 days https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac 

More details on https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/07/kentucky-floods-claim-at-least-16-lives-devastate-region/ where the comments also include these items:

LAS VEGAS, N.M. — Las Vegas Mayor Louie Trujillo declared a state of emergency for the city over contaminated water.

City officials said they have less than a 50-day supply of clean water. The problem is harmful debris from the Calf Canyon/Hermits Peak burn scar has piled into the Gallinas River – the main water source for the city.

...and...

The US Pacific north-west and western Canada is experiencing heatwave conditions which are not expected to ease until later this weekend. A temperature of 42C was recorded in Lytton, British Columbia on 27 July, the same location famed for smashing the Canadian temperature record in 2021. A temperature of 30.4C was recorded on the same date in Vancouver. Oregon’s governor has also declared a state of emergency due to the longevity of the high temperatures, with a high of 38.9C reported in Portland on 26 July.

We now have TS Agatha in the Eastern Pacific, forecast to re-curve and reach Oaxaca province on Monday as a hurricane level 1.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/143456.shtml?cone#contents

It is forecast to survive as a storm to cross Mexico into the Gulf; could it revive there?

Warning; Googling <TS Agatha> has results similar to Googling <Dominator tractors>. <Tropical Storm Agatha> is a safer search.

Agatha is predicted to be the strongest landfalling Pacific hurricane on record so early in the year.

[EDIT it strengthened to top-end level 2 on landfall]

and, if it survives the Mexican mountains 

 A number of the ensemble members of the GFS and European models show Agatha regenerating into the Atlantic’s first named 2022 storm in the Atlantic by the middle of the week.

when it would be re-named Alex, changing sex in the process (Alex is male - the name sequence goes Alex - Bonnie - Colin - Danielle ...)

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/05/tropical-storm-agatha-expected-to-be-a-rare-and-dangerous-early-season-hurricane-for-mexico/

Expected to be a very active season. Agatha having moved through Mexico now expected to go for Florida

Agatha of course has now transgendered into Alex, as its no longer a pacific system

It's hurricane season & things are coming to life. AGATHA's EPAC entrails are resurrecting in the Gulf as #ALEX. You can see the convection arcing around #PTC1's apparent center near the Yucatan. Target: #Florida. TS WARNING along W coast, S of Englewood, & in Keys. pic.twitter.com/vWmzJTv8S0

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) June 3, 2022

Well, not quite, as it's still classified as TD One, quite enough to give Florida a drenching and a storm surge, though. It may yet get upgraded to Storm Alex as it interacts with the Gulf Stream

Tropical Storm #Alex has formed in the western Atlantic - the 1st named storm of the 2022 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. The average 1st Atlantic named storm formation date (based on data from 2000-2021) is June 15. pic.twitter.com/ip0NAvirsT

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 5, 2022

The new ECMWF Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast calls for an extremely active season, with ~19 named storms and ~11 hurricanes predicted for July-November. pic.twitter.com/urN9AfsjuL

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 5, 2022

Blas and Celia as Tropical Storms off W Mexico and heading out to sea. No action yet on the Atlantic 'above-average' season though it is still early days

Celia now forecast to reach hurricane strength by Thursday but staying offshore from W Mexico.

'Historic floods' in Bangladesh which have killed 73 people and displaced 6 million were not derived from a tropical storm but represent the onset of the monsoon.

"There has been a persistent upper-level disturbance in the northern Bay of Bengal. This feature feeding on the extremely moist air flowing north into Bangladesh has resulted in rounds of heavy rains and thunderstorms and widespread flooding," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dave Bowers. "Chittagong Patenga (on the coast) has received 8.5 inches (215 mm) of rain in the last three days while Veat (farther inland) has received 8 inches (200 mm) in the same time period and 17.8 inches (450 mm) so far this month or more than two-and-a-half times normal.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/historic-flooding-in-bangladesh-northern-india/1205183 (link to full report on June 20th)

Unusual early-season threat in Atlantic’s main development region

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/06/unusual-early-season-threat-in-atlantics-main-development-region/

The above storm has now developed enough to be labelled PTC TWO, and is forecast to run W-wards along the coast of S America, intensifying to hurricane off Nicaragua on Friday. A couple of other disturbances, one in the Atlantic, one in the Gulf, given low chances of development by NHC.

TD Two now elevated to TS Bonnie and crossing Nicaragua into Pacific where expected to develop into offshore hurricane. That makes two consecutive TDs which have successfully crossed C America, unusual at any time but two in a row! A nice symmetry too, one W-E, now Bonnie E-W. 

Disturbance off S Carolina given 60% odds of developing into TS, worth watching as it could inject energy and moisture into N Atlantic and upset model forecasts though at the moment it appears more likely to move towards Greenland

TD Two now elevated to TS Bonnie and crossing Nicaragua into Pacific where expected to develop into offshore hurricane. That makes two consecutive TDs which have successfully crossed C America, unusual at any time but two in a row! A nice symmetry too, one W-E, now Bonnie E-W. 

Disturbance off S Carolina given 60% odds of developing into TS, worth watching as it could inject energy and moisture into N Atlantic and upset model forecasts though at the moment it appears more likely to move towards Greenland

Not all long ago, the name of TS Agatha was changed to TS Alex when it moved from the Pacific Ocean into Atlantic Ocean due to the different naming system in each of those two oceans.

I will assume that TS Bonnie was named under the naming system for Atlantic storms, but that is not expected to becoming a hurricane until it moves into the Pacific Ocean.

Does this therefore mean that TS Bonnie will then be renamed under the Pacific naming system when it moves into there, in the same way in which TS Agatha was renamed to TS Alex when it moved into the Atlantic Ocean?

 

Not all long ago, the name of TS Agatha was changed to TS Alex when it moved from the Pacific Ocean into Atlantic Ocean due to the different naming system in each of those two oceans.

I will assume that TS Bonnie was named under the naming system for Atlantic storms, but that is not expected to becoming a hurricane until it moves into the Pacific Ocean.

Does this therefore mean that TS Bonnie will then be renamed under the Pacific naming system when it moves into there, in the same way in which TS Agatha was renamed to TS Alex when it moved into the Atlantic Ocean?

 

It's complicated. If Bonnie retains identifiable TS characteristics (someone - the NHC? - has to make a judgement call there) then it stays Bonnie; else it's re-christened, in this case to Darby. Agatha broke up and there were only remnants  in the Gulf of Mexico, which then were enough to trigger the new development which became Alex.

Looking at the NHC charts, my money would be on Bonnie surviving and keeping its name.

 

It's complicated. If Bonnie retains identifiable TS characteristics (someone - the NHC? - has to make a judgement call there) then it stays Bonnie; else it's re-christened, in this case to Darby. Agatha broke up and there were only remnants  in the Gulf of Mexico, which then were enough to trigger the new development which became Alex.

Looking at the NHC charts, my money would be on Bonnie surviving and keeping its name.

I hope TS Bonnie keeps its name because that sounds like a good Scottish name to me, and it would be sad to see that changed in any way.

Disturbance off Carolina now elevated to TD Colin. Bizarrely, it counts as a landfalling system as it originated over land, though now heading offshore in the direction of Greenland.

Bonnie has made it across to the Pacific intact, where it is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane but staying out at sea

Disturbance off Carolina now elevated to TD Colin. Bizarrely, it counts as a landfalling system as it originated over land, though now heading offshore in the direction of Greenland.

Bonnie has made it across to the Pacific intact, where it is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane but staying out at sea

So, even our own TWO member called Col (whose real name, I will assume to be something like Colin) now has a storm named after him.

I wonder what he will be thinking about that.

Disturbance off Carolina now elevated to TD Colin. Bizarrely, it counts as a landfalling system as it originated over land, though now heading offshore in the direction of Greenland.

Bonnie has made it across to the Pacific intact, where it is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane but staying out at sea

CColin was actually (briefly) a tropical storm and has now been downgraded to a depression.

 

CColin was actually (briefly) a tropical storm and has now been downgraded to a depression.

Blinked and I missed it! Normally one monitoring each day is enough.