WX summary illustrates how the models are still chopping and changing. Week 1 temps still cool across Europe N of a line Brittany - Bavaria - N Ukraine and warmth increasing quite noticeably in a short distance S of that; week 2 shows a new development with a bulge of warm air N-wards into England - Denmark -Poland )with apologies to readers in Ireland and Scotland, but don't shoot the messenger!) . Rain quite widely distributed across Europe except the Med in week 1; in week 2 one area over the mountains of Europe (Pyrenees -Alps - Balkans) and two very well-defined areas of heavy rain, one centred on Rockall (reaches NI and NW Scotland), the other N of the Urals.
Jet - not much action until Tue 7th when a series of strong pulses across Britain (mostly the N) converts to a loop Mon 13th dipping S and encircling Britain
GFS Op - Shallow but large area of LP currently drifting W-wards across Britain (a recipe for showers?) but pressure rise from Thu 2nd offers dry prospects for the Jubilee weekend; the HP ridges from S Eire to Scotland so some brisk E-lies for the far S. The HP is pushed away SE-wards by Tue 7th when LP takes up station over Rockall, deepens to 985 mb before moving E-wards past Scotland. A brief spell of zonal W-lies before a repeat performance with new LP 980mb Rockall Tue 14th.
GEFS - in the S esp SE temps rising to modestly above norm by Sat 4th and staying there though poor agreement between ens members, and small amounts of rain from time to time. In the N, temps close to norm rather than above, more rain with some big totals in the NW and even some notable events in some runs further E
ECM - similar to GFS but the area of HP for the Jubilee weekend is spread more widely at first, covering the whole country, except that Mon 6th/Tue 7th a small area of LP over Belgium threatens showers for the SE. The concluding LP is further W on Tue 7th and should not affect Scotland as much
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl