WX summary illustrates how the models are still chopping and changing. Week 1 temps still cool across Europe N of a line Brittany - Bavaria - N Ukraine and warmth increasing quite noticeably in a short distance S of that; week 2 shows a new development with a bulge of warm air N-wards into England - Denmark -Poland )with apologies to readers in Ireland and Scotland, but don't shoot the messenger!) . Rain quite widely distributed across Europe except the Med in week 1; in week 2 one area over the mountains of Europe (Pyrenees -Alps - Balkans) and two very well-defined areas of heavy rain, one centred on Rockall (reaches NI and NW Scotland), the other N of the Urals.

Jet - not much action until Tue 7th when a series of strong pulses across Britain (mostly the N) converts to a loop Mon 13th dipping S and encircling Britain

GFS Op - Shallow but large area of LP currently drifting W-wards across Britain (a recipe for showers?) but pressure rise from Thu 2nd offers dry prospects for the Jubilee weekend; the HP ridges from S Eire to Scotland so some brisk E-lies for the far S. The HP is pushed away SE-wards by Tue 7th when LP takes up station over Rockall, deepens to 985 mb before moving E-wards past Scotland. A brief spell of zonal W-lies before a repeat performance with new LP 980mb Rockall Tue 14th.

GEFS - in the S esp SE temps rising to modestly above norm by Sat 4th and staying there though poor agreement between ens members, and small amounts of rain from time to time. In the N, temps close to norm rather than above, more rain with some big totals in the NW and even some notable events in some runs further E

ECM - similar to GFS but the area of HP for the Jubilee weekend is spread more widely at first, covering the whole country, except that Mon 6th/Tue 7th a small area of LP over Belgium threatens showers for the SE. The concluding LP is further W on Tue 7th and should not affect Scotland as much

 

 

Totally agree. Not that I have decades of data at our new house, but it seems like an odd year. There are some that would call the least 8 weeks or so cold, but they have been anything but, down in the south, it's just that there hasn't been a reasonably usual 26c+ day yet. The average daily max for May is way above average at 18c+. Having many days of 25c max and 15c min in May is not normal for the UK, and even with GW, will not be in our lifetime so a little perspective may be required in some quarters.

 

GFS12z looks usable, pretty much a follow on of what we have had recently, above average CET, pressure slack 1015 to 1025mb and temps moderated but above CET. Rainfall lower than average.

This week looks fairly disappointing to me and I would be surprised if this week is above the CET average.

Warmish and dryish sums it up . Nothing spectacular but better than it was looking just a few days ago.

Warmish and dryish sums it up . Nothing spectacular but better than it was looking just a few days ago.

 

 

Almost anything would be an improvement on what I have now.

Warmish and dryish sums it up . Nothing spectacular but better than it was looking just a few days ago.

Moomin will be gutted 

 

 

Moomin will be gutted 

However, look at GFS 12Z and GEM.

Looks pretty poor for the weekend.

I wouldn't. I'm a cricket player.

However, look at GFS 12Z and GEM.

Looks pretty poor for the weekend.

Not as good as it was this morning, with slack LP over the near continent, but not dire. A glass half full/half empty type of chart for ths - take your pick - and not at all bad in the north

 

Not as good as it was this morning, with slack LP over the near continent, but not dire. A glass half full/half empty type of chart for ths - take your pick - and not at all bad in the north

Similar on this morning’s output so far and not a bad outlook for northern parts.

Could be July before we see anything that resembles a heatwave, going by the continued trends in most output.

Models still shifting around at short notice.

WX summary temps are in fact still much as yesterday - a zonal pattern for week 1 with the 14C isotherm following the Channel and Baltic Coasts and then in week 2 a modest push from the S with warmer temps from England across to Sweden. However the rainfall pattern has shifted with in week 1 a dry area for Shetland and Norwegian Sea with areas of rain around its perimeter, including S England and in week 2 the dry area is over the Baltic, again with rain surrounding it, notably heavy over Ireland.

GFS Op - Current LP over Britain filling and replaced by HP over Scotland for the Jubilee weekend but shallow LP affecting S England, rather more so than yesterday. At the beginning of next week the pattern re-adjusts to LP west of Ireland Thu 9th; this LP moves first S (Sun 12th, warmth from the S) then N (Tue 14th) then deepens over Ireland (990mb Thu 16th, and cold)

GEFS - Temps soon rising to seasonal norm and mean staying there for most or a little above in the S (any outliers tending to be on the warm side). Small amounts of rain in most ens members, but the op has a couple of dramatic spikes for the SE, Sun 5th and Tue 14th and as usual there's more in the NW.  

ECM - similar to GFS but overall pressure is a little higher

Op picking up some massive rain spikes for Jubilee weekend headache for forecasters. 

Op picking up some massive rain spikes for Jubilee weekend headache for forecasters. 

 

Let's hope that changes.

Carol's forecast on BBC Breakfast appears to show a lot of rain coming up.

Let's hope that changes.

It seems to be in the UK that the only way to avoid the risk of heavy rain is to have strong high pressure over us. Deep depression means wind and heavy rain, shallow depression means slow moving heavy rain, weak anticyclone means some dry spells but the likelihood of slow moving, heavy rain!

Met Office Long Range Forecast shows June Temperature is going to be warmer than average.

Met Office Long Range Forecast shows June Temperature is going to be warmer than average.

Shows up in the ensembles (at height) but the problem we often have in these largely slack set ups is that it's not properly settled. That means the shower risk is always there, as are disappointing amounts of cloud

It's hard to get away from the fact that the UK has a very soggy climate.

Met Office Long Range Forecast shows June Temperature is going to be warmer than average.

I'd be surprised. If and when I get the chance to post my June CET I'm going for a fraction below average.

The current cool stuff is starting to look as though it'll be hard to shift and I've had the past few days at no more than 16C and some very cold nights including an air frost the other night.

This will take some dramatic switch around.

Well I'm heading South to Christchurch for three days and hoping to catch this short drier warmer interlude till the weekend. First time I've been away in the UK since August 2020. I was hoping for some clear night skies for photography purposes but that's looking unlikely.