Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

 

 

Think the 0z was better, certainly in the latter stages.

The trend over the last 4/5 GFS runs, though, has been decent.

Same can't be said of the ECM, which sets up blocking to the NW, blocking to the SE, and the UK being slap in the middle of Atlantic low highway.

 

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Heard on the radio this morning that apparently the forecasters have guaranteed that all 4 days of next weekend are going to be absolutely perfect!

Not sure which models they have based that on, though having said that it does look like there has been an improvement to the outlook today.

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A bold prediction indeed given the vagaries of the UK climate.

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GEFS today seems to be gravitating
towards the high pulling towards the northwest hence a massive cluster of mediocre 850s. But a stubborn cluster of 5 members give something quite a bit warmer suggesting HP close by?

All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.
Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

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BBC WFTWA last night presented a stark difference for a week's time between GFS (northern blocking, dry, NE-ly winds affecting N Sea coasts) and ECM (large depression to the SW, S-ly winds, a lot of rain often heavy). Both models seem to have stepped back from their more extreme positions this morning but there is still a difference.

WX summary (based on GFS) much as it was yesterday: the clear picture of week 1 with a line mid-France - Alps - Ukraine dividing cool to the N and war/hot to the S gets mixed up in week 2. The warmth advances on two fronts, one to Ireland and England (but not Scotland) and the other much warmer all the way up to Finland [not quite as far in today's chart]. In between, Germany remains cold. Rain mainly over the continent; week 1 Balkans - Poland - White Sea and week 2 Germany - Baltic - W Russia with some in N Spain and Alps. Britain looking quite dry, except a bit in the NW at first.[this morning a bit further E week 1 and further SE Week2; Britain not quite as dry and the rain never really leaves NW Scotland]

GFS Op: current LP N of Britain with W/NW winds moves to Baltic with HP 1030mb N Ireland Sat 28th. The HP drifts N-wards to leave Britain in a col between LPs Denmark and Portugal (the former is closer, so expect NE-lies); then a new HP area arising in the W and moving to cover all Britain Sun 5th. It lasts for a few days, enough for the Jubilee weekend, before withdrawing to the SW and an area of LP near Iceland brings in NW-lies.

GEFS: although mild/warm in S at firstt, mean temps generally drop to cool Mon 30th, back to norm Fri 3rd and staying there, with the usual outliers (control is a cold one). Not much rain at first, a little more probable later on esp in NW

ECM: similar to GFS until Mon 30th; but then instead of a col, the two LPs over Denmark and Portugal join forces to give general low pressure; and the LP to the SW becomes dominant 1005mb Cornwall Thu 2nd with S/SE winds (not as large and deep as shown by BBC). It moves N to Scotland Sat 4th with broad trough all the way down to the Med, HP staying in mid-Atlantic

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All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.
Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

My view of the charts is more optimistic than this. Northern blocking in both the big models at first, sure, but for the Jubilee weekend GFS suggests sunny, dry, hot in the sun and cool out of it; ECM fairly warm in the S, cooler in N, but watch out for showers.

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All the models have now reverted to northern blocking to varying extents and looking pretty cool and relatively unsettled for the Jubilee weekend as it stands.
Still a fair way off, but the trend is going backwards at the moment.

Yes yesterday's GFS 6z was indeed leading us up the garden path as it often does.  Outlook is poor.

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West appears to be best over this weekend and into early next week with some warm sunshine. Eastern areas looking cool with the onshore breeze - highs of 12C now forecast for Norwich on Sunday!
ECM goes downhill in a big way just in time for the Jubilee celebrations offering typically wet royal weather. GFS looks considerably better - not especially warm but I'm sure it will feel pleasant enough in any sunshine. After that, GEFS is distinctly average at best with high pressure trending north-west allowing coolish and unsettled weather to dominate.

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Generally after today's rain it looks pretty decent for the next week to 10 days to me - never especially warm but with a good amount of sunshine around.

Actually the lack of warmth is starting to be noticeable. It looks like 20-21C is about the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future. If my memory is correct, in most years recently by the beginning of June we have had a few 25C+ days. AFAIK we have only reached 25C once so far this year (17 May hit 27.5C) and I can't see that being beaten for a good while.

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Generally after today's rain it looks pretty decent for the next week to 10 days to me - never especially warm but with a good amount of sunshine around.

Actually the lack of warmth is starting to be noticeable. It looks like 20-21C is about the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future. If my memory is correct, in most years recently by the beginning of June we have had a few 25C+ days. AFAIK we have only reached 25C once so far this year (17 May hit 27.5C) and I can't see that being beaten for a good while.

I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

 

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I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

No real heat yet, but here at least consistently warm 20c most days which is unusual for May. The CET will likely be in the top 10 warmest ever.

 

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No real heat yet, but here at least consistently warm 20c most days which is unusual for May. The CET will likely be in the top 10 warmest ever.

 

 

The temp through May has been remarkably stable, with daily maxes sticking within a narrow band, and no cool nights. It's reflected in the CET, which is 1.7c above the 30-year average despite having no real warmth to speak of. 

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I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

I hope this isn't the story for the whole summer. We've had two so called hot spells now kicked out to the ether. The next few days on Look East last night showed a maximum of just 12C for Sunday.

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Truly awful output summer definitely on hold for at least 10 days.

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I believe you're right. I know for some people 'baking heat' is 21C (like for my sister in Exeter). It's a struggle to get more than 21C though this year.

Even in the local rag the headline Hot Hot Hot is no more than the high teens this year as I've hammered in from time to time on TWO.

It's only 6C warmer here than Reykjavik and it's almost June. The modelled warmth seems to get shunted into the future each day.

 

 

 

That what I been going about here becoming Icelandic climate set-up that normally does in Iceland in summer when we get HP often from the south now opposite Iceland get good UK summer types and like Rob K say about lack of noticeable warmth, it tiring to try to keep my house warm to avoid heating which last turn on 5th May so it stay around 20-21c indoors.   Any models still continue to be useless and if they keep taking the heat away from us that mean they are to blame for it, today temps are just 1 C off from 16C on 1st Jan on the shortest daylight time.  We now got 3 weeks left before drawing out again so will be big waste if no heatwave from now to early August.

Truly awful output summer definitely on hold for at least 10 days.

Bang on cue for the start of summer.

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A slightly better ECM this morning, albeit still a cool unsettled spell next week first.
Hopefully the first signs of a settling down again.
GFS remains pretty crap though.

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A slightly better ECM this morning, albeit still a cool unsettled spell next week first.
Hopefully the first signs of a settling down again.
GFS remains pretty crap though.

Yep some straws this morning from the ECM.  GFS ensembles also a little better. The continent looks like its getting hot next week so if we can get a southerly will be very warm. 

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WX temp chart in week 1 still with cool weather N of a line Channel - Alps - S Poland but some quite hot weather in week 2 moving N-ward , the leading edge just about reaching S England and across to the Baltic, quite a dramatic change in Germany (but still cool further E,i.e. Finland and nearby). Rain mostly Scandinavia and Russia week 1, fairly general away from the Med in week 2 and notably making a return to Ireland and Scotland.

Jet briefly across Scotland for a day or two, weakly and intermittent through the Channel Tue 31st - Mon 7th, else absent

GFS Op starts with W/NW-lies as LP moves across to Finland and by Sat 28th HP 1030mb  Ireland covering most of UK but cool N-ly on N Sea  coast. For next week, the LP in Scandi teams up with one to SW of Britain and then Britain as a whole lies in a broad, shallow but cool-looking trough. This moves around a bit, first to the N and then back to the NE where it stays for the Jubilee weekend with N-lies for all. HP back over UK 1030mb Wed 8th but even that subsides in favour of another shallow trough from the Atlantic Sat 11th

GEFS temps dropping to cool, even cold Mon 30th, then mean near norm with best prospects for higher temps around Fris 3rd and 10th - op & control bullish at these dates. After a few dry days, small amounts of rain showing up frequently. The cool spell lasts longer in the N/NW and there aren't any warm outliers; also rather more rain.

ECM like GFS to Thu 2nd but then offers much better prospects for the Jubilee weekend with a general pressure rise and HP defined by1030mb isobar covering virtually all Britain on Sun 5th

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