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Offline DEW  
#141 Posted : 23 May 2022 07:06:01(UTC)
DEW

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Posts: 17,792
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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

WX temps: the cold pool which has persisted over W Russia in week 1 finally disappears in week 2, but this does nothing for temps across N Europe which remain cool north of a line S France - Alps - N Ukraine, with a sharp temp gradient to the Med and Black Sea which are warm/hot. Rain patchy but mostly in the cool areas outlined above.

Jet not very strong but always something across Britain and N Europe; at the very end something much stronger heading for N Spain.

GFS Op - broad trough over Britain now rather more extensive than previously forecast, moving away to the north and giving a zonal flow from Thu 26th. HP over SW England Sat 28th but quickly moving N to Iceland with NE-lies for all by Mon 30th. After that, Britain tends to lie in a trough from an LP on the Atlantic off SW Ireland to one over Scandinavia, the trough sometimes more marked (Tue 31st, Fri 3rd, Tue 7th) and at other times in a col between the LP centres.

GEFS - In the S, cool 25th May, briefly milder, then a cool period lasting to Thu 2nd (op & control quite cold, 6 or 7 C below norm, other ens member milder), mean temp finishing close to norm for a while. Rain now esp in SE, dry for a time, small amounts from Thu 2nd. In the N, cross off 'briefly milder', otherwise temp profile similar; also rainfall but current rain affects Scotland rather than N England.

ECM - synoptics like GFS until Tue 31st when the HP over Iceland extends a ridge S-wards, just enough to hold off the LP on either side.

Daily Star model - 25C ten-day heatwave starting at the end of this week

 

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#142 Posted : 23 May 2022 07:11:09(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Chart image

 

Despite the extensive Northern blocking nothing that cold yet. Not what  you want to see in late May though.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline NMA  
#143 Posted : 23 May 2022 07:15:24(UTC)
NMA

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Posts: 3,925
Man
Location: South Dorset

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

WX temps: the cold pool which has persisted over W Russia in week 1 finally disappears in week 2, but this does nothing for temps across N Europe which remain cool north of a line S France - Alps - N Ukraine, with a sharp temp gradient to the Med and Black Sea which are warm/hot. Rain patchy but mostly in the cool areas outlined above.

Jet not very strong but always something across Britain and N Europe; at the very end something much stronger heading for N Spain.

GFS Op - broad trough over Britain now rather more extensive than previously forecast, moving away to the north and giving a zonal flow from Thu 26th. HP over SW England Sat 28th but quickly moving N to Iceland with NE-lies for all by Mon 30th. After that, Britain tends to lie in a trough from an LP on the Atlantic off SW Ireland to one over Scandinavia, the trough sometimes more marked (Tue 31st, Fri 3rd, Tue 7th) and at other times in a col between the LP centres.

GEFS - In the S, cool 25th May, briefly milder, then a cool period lasting to Thu 2nd (op & control quite cold, 6 or 7 C below norm, other ens member milder), mean temp finishing close to norm for a while. Rain now esp in SE, dry for a time, small amounts from Thu 2nd. In the N, cross off 'briefly milder', otherwise temp profile similar; also rainfall but current rain affects Scotland rather than N England.

ECM - synoptics like GFS until Tue 31st when the HP over Iceland extends a ridge S-wards, just enough to hold off the LP on either side.

Daily Star model - 25C ten-day heatwave starting at the end of this week 

 

Thank you David for these updates.

The latter keeps getting shunted into the unpredictable future. A heatwave nowadays in Dorset seems to be the high teens. Have yet to see higher than 23C here IMBY Dorset.

https://www.dorsetecho.co.uk/news/20133351.weather-forecast-dorset-getting-hot-hot-hot/

 

Edited by user 23 May 2022 07:17:43(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Taylor1740  
#144 Posted : 23 May 2022 08:25:22(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
Looks to me as though the other big models are now following GFS with northern blocking and much, much cooler.
Cudos to GFS if its right.

Agreed GFS often seems to lead the way at picking up the longer range trends. Not really seen any Northern blocking for a while but looks like it may emerge just in time for the beginning of Summer...

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline ozone_aurora  
#145 Posted : 23 May 2022 09:01:25(UTC)
ozone_aurora

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 25/06/2012(UTC)
Posts: 1,391
Location: Sheffield

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post
Looks to me as though the other big models are now following GFS with northern blocking and much, much cooler, and miserable.
Cudos to GFS if its right.


Yup, just what I thought would happen. Good weather to be in the exam room.

I wish WC or EC football would be on.

Offline moomin75  
#146 Posted : 23 May 2022 09:58:04(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

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Posts: 6,218

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed GFS often seems to lead the way at picking up the longer range trends. Not really seen any Northern blocking for a while but looks like it may emerge just in time for the beginning of Summer...

Pretty much bang on cue more or less for thr first day of meteorological summer.

Couldn't make it up really!!

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#147 Posted : 23 May 2022 09:58:39(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Posts: 9,334
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Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Cooler spell seems likely now from about 29th. Doesn't look that dramatic on the 850 charts but can imagine 2m temps could be very depressed with plenty of North sea gunk in a north easterly. We know in winter that northern blocking rarely materialises will we get a similar about face now? Let's hope so.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline idj20  
#148 Posted : 23 May 2022 10:06:29(UTC)
idj20

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Location: Folkestone (near the coast)

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed GFS often seems to lead the way at picking up the longer range trends. Not really seen any Northern blocking for a while but looks like it may emerge just in time for the beginning of Summer...



Yup, it is as I feared the other day. Shades of Summer 2012. Of course it is not all set in stone, as always the case with medium range forecasting.

Offline moomin75  
#149 Posted : 23 May 2022 10:32:58(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,218

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Cooler spell seems likely now from about 29th. Doesn't look that dramatic on the 850 charts but can imagine 2m temps could be very depressed with plenty of North sea gunk in a north easterly. We know in winter that northern blocking rarely materialises will we get a similar about face now? Let's hope so.

 

You can bet your bottom dollar that the northern blocking will materialise exactly as shown, as sod's law kicks in.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

Offline Taylor1740  
#150 Posted : 23 May 2022 12:42:45(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: moomin75 Go to Quoted Post

Pretty much bang on cue more or less for thr first day of meteorological summer.

Couldn't make it up really!!

Yeah in the same way that any Northern blocking will magically disappear again on 1 December and zonality will return!! 

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline fairweather  
#151 Posted : 23 May 2022 12:54:45(UTC)
fairweather

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2017(UTC)
Posts: 9,019
Location: S.Essex

Originally Posted by: Taylor1740 Go to Quoted Post

 

Agreed GFS often seems to lead the way at picking up the longer range trends. Not really seen any Northern blocking for a while but looks like it may emerge just in time for the beginning of Summer...

Well other than most of April !

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Offline Hungry Tiger  
#152 Posted : 23 May 2022 13:37:04(UTC)
Hungry Tiger

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 25,835
Location: South Cambridgeshire

Next week is looking nasty.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.

Offline Saint Snow  
#153 Posted : 23 May 2022 13:45:33(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Posts: 55,438
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger Go to Quoted Post

Next week is looking nasty.

 

Not for all that jingoistic Jubilee gubbins? Oh no... how awful...

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Col  
#154 Posted : 23 May 2022 14:19:49(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,710
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow Go to Quoted Post

 

 

Not for all that jingoistic Jubilee gubbins? Oh no... how awful...

So will you be giving back that extra day's holiday, then? I sure you wouldn't want to benefit from something you don't believe in:)

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline Saint Snow  
#155 Posted : 23 May 2022 14:34:29(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Col Go to Quoted Post

 

So will you be giving back that extra day's holiday, then? I sure you wouldn't want to benefit from something you don't believe in:)

 

[shrugs] work is closed, as are almost all my clients; I'll never say no to a day off

I shan't be going to any flagwaving parties, though. It all seems a bit manufactured and nationalist

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Taylor1740  
#156 Posted : 23 May 2022 16:59:50(UTC)
Taylor1740

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC)
Posts: 535
Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: fairweather Go to Quoted Post

 

Well other than most of April !

Not sure that was proper northern blocking though, a little bit at the start but most of the month was UK high or mid-atlantic high. Last April/May was the last time I think we had a proper northern blocking setup.

NW Leeds - 150m amsl
Offline DEW  
#157 Posted : 24 May 2022 07:01:40(UTC)
DEW

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Location: Chichester 12m. asl

WX temp summary; the clear picture of week 1 with a line mid-France - Alps - Ukraine dividing cool to the N and war/hot to the S gets mixed up in week 2. The warmth advances on two fronts, one to Ireland and England (but not Scotland) and the other much warmer all the way up to Finland. In between, Germany remains cold. Rain mainly over the continent; week 1 Balkans - Poland - White Sea and week 2 Germany - Baltic - W Russia with some in N Spain and Alps. Britain looking quite dry, except a bit in the NW at first.

Jet more intense than forecast yesterday across Scotland until the weekend decaying into casual streaks down the N Sea. It re-visits Scotland briefly around Mon 6th but otherwise absent around Britain.

GFS Op - current trough retreating N-wards with W/NW winds until Friday 27th. Then HP establishes over Britain (centre 1030mb S England) though with some onshore winds down the N Sea, the HP only slowly moving NW-wards until by Fri 3rd it's moved away far enough to allow LP over Germany to set up E-lies for the S. Then the HP returns from the W to cover Britain again by Thu 9th. Pressure is much higher in the region of Britain than forecast yesterday.

GEFS - temps dropping off to a low point around Fri 27th; then a steady rise in mean temp back to and eventually above seasonal norm from about Sun 5th. Different from what was shown yesterday as cool period absent and op & control warmer esp at end of period. Small amount of rain from time to time; the profile looks showery. The far SW is the place to be, warmer and almost no rain.

ECM - much less promising than GFS. Firstly the HP from Friday 27th is situated further NW with more of a drift off the N Sea; then from Tue 31st pressure drops over UK and the synoptics look like yesterday's GFS. By Wed 1st there is a broad trough from the Atlantic SW of Ireland to Norway persisting to end-of -run Fri 3rd though by then pressure is beginning to rise from the S.

"The sky was an exquisitely deep blue just then, with filmy white clouds drawn up over it like gauze"
Offline Saint Snow  
#158 Posted : 24 May 2022 08:47:20(UTC)
Saint Snow

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Man
Location: St Helens

Looks alright to me in terms of usable weather. From later this week onwards, mostly dominated by high pressure - albeit with a cool airmass feed for most of the time so temps will be suppressed. High meandering from over the UK to over the GIN Sea then into a huge Scandi/North Atlantic, before GFS tries to split it by launching a low over mainland Europe northwards.

Winds from NNW to E mostly, which is better for the western side of the country.

I'm sure plenty will change between now and then, though.

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#159 Posted : 24 May 2022 10:48:11(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

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Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,334
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline moomin75  
#160 Posted : 24 May 2022 11:01:21(UTC)
moomin75

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/05/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,218

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post

Much better GFS 6z.  High pressure building in right over the UK. I find the GFS 6z does tend to play it's own tune though so best wait until the 12s before opening the champagne. 

 

Was thinking exactly the same. First steps to a new trend or a wild outlier? Hopefully the former.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

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