Some crazy heat in the ECM ENS. 

 

What sorts of maxes are those implying.

 

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Is it me or are the models not looking quite so hot now with any significant heat perhaps being pushed back to next weekend or later?

Certainly GFS looks much more Atlantic influenced with more of a Westerly, whereas ECM still looks hot potentially in the South.

GFS does appear to be showing the North Atlantic depression, about a week from now, getting a lot closer to the UK than it did previously. This would of course result in cooler and unsettled weather for much of the UK if it materialised. After this things appear to settle back down again but that's a long way off. 

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Is it me or are the models not looking quite so hot now with any significant heat perhaps being pushed back to next weekend or later?

Certainly GFS looks much more Atlantic influenced with more of a Westerly, whereas ECM still looks hot potentially in the South.

No models showing so hot weather only low 20's to mid 20's so that not hot just warm and we in southern blocking so better set-up for us on the warm side and lot of HP chances after quick LP move off.  That was the features in the past set-up that bring variety of weather from unsettled with average temps or a tad below to heatwaves easily obtained.  Thankfully no killer northern blocking at the moment.  Local ensemles for Nuneaton snow warm days to average days so that around 18-23C which is good for May compare to 8-12C last year May.

 

What sorts of maxes are those implying.

 

If they come off it would go to low 30's as the record is 33C but if that happen we deserved it after poor year last year.  Also a hot spell in May really good help for the summer months, we had none last year May which give us cold wet summer. Most going for low to mid 20's at best so that way much better and double the temps amount from last year May.

Looking wet for the north next week, especially from Wednesday.
Meanwhile the south stays pleasantly warm and dry, with plenty of sunshine and light winds. UV levels on the rise as a transient ridge crosses us.

WX temp summary not confirming a heat wave for Britain - continuing pleasantly warm for the S, cooler further N. The really hot weather is east of the Urals and to some extent in Portugal, but in week 2 there's a general expansion of cool weather southwards from Scandinavia to cover much of W and C Europe. A mixed picture of rainfall - week 1 dry for Spain and Ukraine, damp elsewhere and actually wet to NW Britain and Norway, week 2, the dry area over Spain moves N and rain is to be found Spain- Alps - W Russia.

Jet developing strongly though briefly across Scotland Tue 10th, looping to the N around Britain from Sun 15th.

GFS op - HP hangs on for the weekend, but displaced by LP running across close to Scotland 990mb Faeroes Wed 11th, until HP rebuilds from the S from Sat 14th to cover all Uk by Thu 19th. The HP then retreats NW-wards and lets in strong NE-lies by Sun 22nd.

GEFS - in the S warm around Tue 10th, then a dip to norm before good agreement between ens members for warm/v warm (about 8C above norm) Tue 17th, tailing off (the NE-lies seem to be exclusive to the op); and very little rain. Temps similar in the NW but quite a lot of rain in week beginning Tue 10th.

ECM - similar to GFS but the LP at the end of the week is closer and later in development - 990mb N Scotland Fri 12th at its closest

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Looking wet for the north next week, especially from Wednesday.
Meanwhile the south stays pleasantly warm and dry, with plenty of sunshine and light winds. UV levels on the rise as a transient ridge crosses us.

Certainly mainly dry in the south although I'd expect some light rain in the form of weak fronts. Wouldn't take much for those depressions to sink further south and give more of a soaking. On the other hand, high pressure could win out! I think  it could get quite breezy for a while for much of the UK as the pressure gradient is quite steep mid-week.

Getting to the time of year where crossing the Channel can make a big difference. Paris is showing highs of 28C next Tuesday while London is a still pleasant 22C. 

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A delay in the significant heat until about 15th. So still a long way out but if some of the more extreme ensembles come off we'd be looking at 30c . Unusual for May.

 

 

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A delay in the significant heat until about 15th. So still a long way out but if some of the more extreme ensembles come off we'd be looking at 30c . Unusual for May.

 

 

The all time record for May is 33C set in 1944. That'll be ripe for picking - Also don't forget the ground is dry in the south so that will help.

 

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Looking wet for the north next week, especially from Wednesday.
Meanwhile the south stays pleasantly warm and dry, with plenty of sunshine and light winds. UV levels on the rise as a transient ridge crosses us.

It’s not looking especially wet in parts of the NE. The NW however looks significantly wetter. Hopefully there will be some useable weather around in the coming couple of weeks. The 18°C plus temperatures here over the last couple of days have made a pleasant change.

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Does not look like like a sucker summer like 2012 at the moment. Not much rain showing in these charts at least for the south of the UK. We need to be careful what we wish for with food prices already starting to rocket.

A delay in the significant heat until about 15th. So still a long way out but if some of the more extreme ensembles come off we'd be looking at 30c . Unusual for May.

 

 

More support for this heatwave or very warm spell will have to come off as it been well over due for some proper warmth since early Sept so that 9 months ago.

 

More support for this heatwave or very warm spell will have to come off as it been well over due for some proper warmth since early Sept so that 9 months ago.

A while to wait, yes. Well overdue, no. Can’t say I remember any heatwaves over winter in living memory. 
Patterns still looking ripe for some lovely late spring heat this morning for 2nd half of the month. 

Wx summary - the heat is on again after a step backwards yesterday, warmth spreading N on both the W (i.e. Britain) and E of the map, but still cool, even cold from Finland S-wards. Pptn across N Atlantic into Russia week 1, splitting into two with drier in Scandinavia week 2

GFS - current HP pushed SE-wards with LP N of Scotland Wed 11th followed by a spell of W-lies to Sun 15th, not a good match for warmth in the S as above until Tue 17th when pulse from the S in association with HP to the E brings in - dare i say it - a plume. HP then hangs on in the S but winds go round more SW-ly.

GEFS - In the S, after a spell near norm to Sun15th, very warm for the following week and almost no rain. Temp profile similar in N but quite a lot of rain 9th-13th in the NW.

ECM - similar to GFS

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A while to wait, yes. Well overdue, no. Can’t say I remember any heatwaves over winter in living memory. 
Patterns still looking ripe for some lovely late spring heat this morning for 2nd half of the month. 

Wouldn't February 2019 count as a winter 'heatwave', when temperatures peaked at 21.2C in London? I would argue that it does due to the huge deviation away from the average.

Plus Dec 2015. Basically a whole month of October temperatures in December ! The winter version of August 1995

ECM once again produces a jackpot heatwave run. Other models not so good though. 

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So near and yet so far - the summary charts ths morning show proper warmth hanging fire just the other side of the Channel, a step back from yesterday, and continuing into week 2. Pleasant enough temps for S Britain and better than the rather cool pool persisting over C & E Europe. Rain mostly in the N (Atlantic - Scotland -Baltic) in week 1, moving S in week 2 (England - Alps -Ukraine).

Jet - developing strongly across N Ireland - S Scotland for next few days, breaking up into loops then fragments of loops around N of Scotland by Sun 15th and persisting to Thu 19th after which it goes quiet.

GFS Op - Current HP moving SE and allowing LP to take over (990mb Hebrides Fri 13th) with winds going round from SW to NW before HP re-establishes Sun 15th intensifying 1030mb Tue 17th and moving N-wards. LP develops in Biscay as a response, running N-wards and at its deepest 990mb Mon 23rd off SW Ireland. Only intermittently is there warm air from the S, certainly not the plume suggested yesterday.

FAX shows quite a complex of fronts across the Highlands this week, and brings the LP further S and sooner; 991mb N Wales Wed 11th (BBC was saying this morning to watch this as a possibility)

GEFS - in the S a degree or two above norm at first, cooler around Sat 14th, warmer then until end of forecast but not record-breaking as models suggested a couple of days back. Very little rain, and that mostly later on. In the N, a similar temp profile, to a greater degree above norm later but from a lower base. Rain in quantity this week on the W coast, and not absent elsewhere; drier for a time but more rain towards end of forecast

ECM - similar to GEFS but positions the HP around Tue 17th just that bit further E and S thus encouraging a more coherent airflow from Spain

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Interesting developments on the GFS model this morning. Concerning if you like very warm and dry. The OP is at the bottom end of the spectrum but shows what can happen when the anticyclone gets sucked too far north.

Potential for any nationwide heatwave would be quickly scuppered and we'd be left wishing we'd booked that week holiday in Western Scotland.

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ECM once again produces a jackpot heatwave run. Other models not so good though. 

Yeah ECM likes a heatwave at t200+ but personally I think GFS is the better model at that kind of range and it seems to be backing down from any significant sort of heatwave.

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