WX temps: the cold pool which has persisted over W Russia in week 1 finally disappears in week 2, but this does nothing for temps across N Europe which remain cool north of a line S France - Alps - N Ukraine, with a sharp temp gradient to the Med and Black Sea which are warm/hot. Rain patchy but mostly in the cool areas outlined above.
Jet not very strong but always something across Britain and N Europe; at the very end something much stronger heading for N Spain.
GFS Op - broad trough over Britain now rather more extensive than previously forecast, moving away to the north and giving a zonal flow from Thu 26th. HP over SW England Sat 28th but quickly moving N to Iceland with NE-lies for all by Mon 30th. After that, Britain tends to lie in a trough from an LP on the Atlantic off SW Ireland to one over Scandinavia, the trough sometimes more marked (Tue 31st, Fri 3rd, Tue 7th) and at other times in a col between the LP centres.
GEFS - In the S, cool 25th May, briefly milder, then a cool period lasting to Thu 2nd (op & control quite cold, 6 or 7 C below norm, other ens member milder), mean temp finishing close to norm for a while. Rain now esp in SE, dry for a time, small amounts from Thu 2nd. In the N, cross off 'briefly milder', otherwise temp profile similar; also rainfall but current rain affects Scotland rather than N England.
ECM - synoptics like GFS until Tue 31st when the HP over Iceland extends a ridge S-wards, just enough to hold off the LP on either side.
Daily Star model - 25C ten-day heatwave starting at the end of this week
Thank you David for these updates.
The latter keeps getting shunted into the unpredictable future. A heatwave nowadays in Dorset seems to be the high teens. Have yet to see higher than 23C here IMBY Dorset.